Thanks Johnd,
No I don't,I'm happy enough,taking bits and pieces where I can,as vdw said,there are lots of small fish.

Has anyone had a look at the Lincoln yet?
FREMEN looks sure to run, and looks a good bet IMO!

hi,jib, thanks for the info can anyone assist with horses to follow using speed figure method by vdw, for flat season, ........qualifying speed figures using split second, or weekender speed figures, thanks

GRUNDY
The method was: 2yo that ran not more than 3 times without winning and recorded a Split Second rating of 40 or more at one of the folowing courses Ascot, Doncaster, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown or York.
The equivalent current RP s/f would be approx 55.
He also gave a method for 3yo that achieved a SS of 70 ( RP s/f 94?) at the same courses, but I no longer have all the information for this.

thanks johnd,could you explain how you work out the differance from the old speed figure format to todays split second rating, weekender speed figures i have not come across this info in raceform or weekender?...any ..early thoughts on the lincoln...

VDW suggested - making a list of 2 yo'ld whihich had recorded speed figures of 100 + in their first season !!

Can anyone locate these figures ???

tc

The 4.00 at Kelso should be an interesting race.
Both Swish and Tannisworld have Paddy The Piper down as a 'lay' on other threads, perhaps VDW would have it otherwise?
He is the most consistent horse in the race, the class horse, has the best lto form, and beat a couple of decent yardsticks comfortably.
He also showed improvement when raised, is dropped in class over the same c/d and going, and is top on both unadjusted RP ratings.
It is his first time in a handicap, and he has to carry 11.12, but neither the course or the going look demanding.
Would you take him on at likely odds-on?

TC
VDW used split second for most of his s/f examples. I may be wrong, but I have a feeling 100 was the maximum possible rating for this method, I cannot recall him ever mentioning a s/f that high.

Grundy.
As above, I used a notional highest of 100 for SS, against a notional high of 135 for topspeed, and adjusted the figures accordingly. Any other s/f should be open to a similar adjustment if you can work out the range.
It may not be 100% accurate, but applied evenly, should serve most purposes.

JohnD,
I only went for PADDY THE PIPER as a lay because it had won last time out and was in a hcp hurdle. I did point out that it looked a very good thing according to all normal criteria.
So far there have been 26 hcp hurdle choices. Only 2 have won making a loss of 16.6 points.

SWISH
Apologies if you think that was a pop at you and Tannis. Far from it, you are both doing a great job on your respective threads.
I just felt it was worth highlighting the horse because it had so much in its favour from a VDW perspective.
Glad to see you are still reading this thread, though.
Johnd.

No problem JohnD.

Some brilliant racing today.
IRIS'S GIFT 2.00, and MADE IN JAPAN 3.10, look to have fewer question marks than most from a VDW standpoint.
Good luck to everyone!

Nothing stands out today.
Fleet Street, 2.35, is the nearest I got to a bet, but he may need a stiffer test.
Good luck to all.

More top class racing today
In the 2.20, VENN OTTERY looks a good bet unless there is significant rain,
In the 3.45, JURANCON II has a lot in his favour, the only question being his inexperience, but the price compensates. Softening of the ground would bring JOSS NAYLOR into it.

Good luck to all.

johnd
just looked in,can't see how Venn Ottery can be a vdw,look at the race again as it is a prime example of vdw,one of the more obvious ones in my opinion.

PIPEDREAMER
At first, I saw the race the same way as you, and had Well Chief as the clear choice, until I came to look at their lto runs, which is where it all went pear shaped.
Well Chief had won a class 810 gd1 nov chase comfortably, excellent form in the context of this race, but was it the best form in the race?
Venn Ottery had run very well, in a much better race, until weakening in the closing stages, and earned a slightly higher rating than WC. His trainer had stated categorically before the race that the lack of a tongue strap would make a difference.
Given the addition of a tongue strap, and no finishing hill to climb, I 'reasonably?' assumed that VO would improve upon that run. As we now all know, that didn't turn out to be the case.
Despite this setback, I remain convinced that the arithmetic of ability ratings is far from the total answer that is often claimed, and can cite many instances where the horse with the best form has beaten a horse with a much higher ability rating when the latter has run to form.
Anything that opens up discussion on VDW is to be welcomed, and while I truly don't doubt your sincerity for one second, this thread is unlikely to achieve its objective until members are willing to give their thoughts before the race, or at least a reasoned and logical explanation of past results that can be applied to future races.

johnd,
I agree with your last paragraph,and for that reason,I don't like to post much,on this topic.I very rarely look at site,until night time,as I write up my records and then browze the site.

I backed Well Chief,with a saver on Thisthatantother.If it is of interest,last week,I had Brian Boru on Sunday in Ireland, Alcazar at Nottingham on Monday,Iris's Gift and Moscow Flyer at Aintree,as vdw certainties.I backed nothing else,with this method.

LOOK AT THESE RACES if you want to.

I also agree with you,about the ability rating.

Venn Ottery look again at what it beat,and what beat it,we can only deal in facts,not speculation.

I will not put up post race results like this in future,I will if I think of it,post up pre race,in future,otherwise nothing ok.

I only want to help,I'm not being a smart ass.

PIPEDREAMER
Thanks for the reply, and the spirit in which it was given. Maybe if you do post a few up pre-race others will begin to take an interest, and this thread can advance a little.
I have had a good look at the list you put up, and can see the rationale behind them, 5 from 5 is no mean feat, whatever method one uses.
To me, that is the attraction of VDW, he wrote of 'racing certainties' with a conviction not even dreamt of by others, and gave us an insight into how to recognise these bets when they occur. As far as I am aware, no other racing scribe has come close to that.
They are not all at the short end of the market, either; I am still kicking myself over Sporazene at Cheltenham.
I can safely put that on here as it is one I missed, mainly due to the late withdrawal of others of similar class. Although after the race, it is still worth studying, as he was head and shoulders above his rivals, and should have been a clear VDW selection in my eyes.
Re Venn Ottery, I will put that one down to experience, and a tendency to over-analyze. Stupid really, as he said to judge a horse by what it has done in public, and not by any other means!
I remain convinced that the method is based on simple and logical processes, not least because he said so himself a number of times, and the tendency to intellectualise and over-analyze leads to the misguided approach that has been so prevalent on this thread.
Maybe, one day, the few that remain can change that.
Look forward to your future posts.
Johnd

Johnd,
I agree that it is a simple logical process,and for me to understand it would need to be.

Of course he gave some examples that I will never figure out,and to be honest don't really want to.

Racing being what it is,can make mugs of us.Pardishar ran in the 5.20 at Fontwell today.In it's previous race over same c & d on March 21st,I thought it was a certainty for a place,but finished 4th.I admit I was puzzled after the race,I just could not understand it.Today he comes out and is placed,finishing well clear of the horse that won the race last time,without carrying any of my money,needless to say.

In the 2.40 Kemp, PONDERON's lto defeat of Anak Pekan is good form in the context of this race, others with similar form have various question marks. The fact that G Duffield travels south to take the ride suggests the horse is fit enough.
In the 3.00 Hayd., NIGHT'S CROSS's Tipperary win stands out as the best form in the race. and his trainer's previous record in this race suggest that he will be up for it.

todays furthest travellers.

The Kelt -IRL- 4.10 Hunt - Win - 14/1

Indian Spark - 409m - 2.45 Kemp - loss

Majik -257m - 4.00 Rdcr - loss

Snoopy Loopy - 256m - 5.20 Hntg - win - 16/1

Seven Colours - 256m - 5.20 Hntg - loss

Von Wessex - 255m - 3.45m Yarm - win - 20/1

Abbajaba - 245m - 3.15 Kemp - loss

Scotts View - 245m - 3.50 Kemp - win - 5/1

Polar Kingdom - 240m - 3.15 Kemp - loss

Sounds Cool - 232m - 3.00 Plum - win - 11/4

Harem Scarum - 232m - 3.00 Plum - loss

Bywell Beau - 231m - 5.20 Hunt - loss


note - that all these were the trainers only runner at the meeting !!!

Trainers intentions ??? or what ??


tc

(I'll get this post in the right place yet !!)