Walter,
You are quite right in what you say, but a look at the form will tell you whether horse is ok over dist, going, class etc. The point of the numerical picture is to take an initial view of the race to decide whether it is worth looking at the race in greater detail (ie to see whether there is a potential winner in the race.) This is why it is designed to exclude horses while at the same time being as inclusive as possible. This is why, for example he reccomends taking the top 4 ability from the whole field and not just from the top 5/6 in the betting. Similarly it is why F, P, and UR are ignored when assessing the consistency rating, a point a lot of people dont seem to realise. Yes, we want to leave out no hopers but we also dont want to miss any horses that might play a part in the outcome of the race. The numerical picture is to take a non partisan initial view of the race without any preconceptions.
regards,

Thank you for taking time to answer my query regarding Latlomne. Appreciated.
I wish I had asked about POLY AMANSHA as well now, as I had that pencilled as a likely winner, also.
With regret I left that one alone.
Because I am mainly a 'night owl' I often don't see all your posts till after racing has finished. I shall try and remedy this.
Cheers
Swish

Glad to see that in the races I looked at last night I have the same c/f horses as Guest

Koraker is a bet for me as I like the fact he has had a near identical prep this year as he had last year in winning this race.

Demasta does prefer good ground or better so the good to soft patches are a bit of a negative. Price available will dictate if this one is backed.

Mr .e.d,

Good to hear from you. I have read your posting a couple of times, and must admit I don't understand it. I don't think I am missing anything, I think it is Guest who is making it far more complicated than it is. (he is rolling all the methods into one making it impossible to follow)

Thanks for your list of reasons why horses didn't win. I don't use these reasons to make excuses, I use them to asses the horses chances on the day. All except number 2 of course, you know my thoughts on that!!

Very busy day so must get on. If you haven't that much to do maybe you could explain which excuse you used to excuse Soaf's last run. There has to be one (if you work the same way as Guest)

Guest, I will try to answer your questions later in the day.

Be Lucky

I think I've said anything I wanted to say and probably several times so I'll stop pestering you. Hope you succeed in your quest.

Castleshane looks the one here (forgiving last run - out of it's class racing against Intersky Falcon and Marble Arch) after a good first time out performance off bottom weight also in a much higher class.

Full Irish's last win was facile, in one of those farcical 3 runner races where they stand still for a minute. Benbyas is not in form. Direct Route has a two year absence and old age to overcome. Renzo doesn't look to be in it. Maceo is the only danger having 'marked it's card' in it's last race.



Doncaster 2.45 - I would take Hurricane Lamp to beat Korakor

Haydock 2.55 - 'everything lines up' for Vol Solitaire

3.20 Don

The problem with this race is that Castleshane and Benbyas will probably try and fight for the lead and maybe set the race up for a finisher.

I would back Castleshane if Benbyas were not entered.

Trainer said Castleshane would not run if there was any overnight rain. There has been, and there is now.

Of the class/form horses listed in my post of last night there are only 4 I see as having all the right credentials to put money on.

Cheltenham 12.50 Demasta
Haydock 1.50 Ballylusky
Haydock 2.20 Kingsmark
Haydock 2.55 Vol Solitaire

A few c/fs that I have reservations about are Cyfor Malta, same class of race, but more weight and good opposition and 16/1 surprise last time.

Ad Hoc, has the class but the form isn't as good as Lord Bests, so far.

In Contrast will probably win, but both he and Classified are down in class having won in much better race class. That makes a conflict and can be checked against some of those VDW left in his Boxing Day examples.

Will JohnD find anything today? I will be interested to see.

Have a good day all.

Guest,

I find I agree with you on your c/form horses at Haydock and Doncaster. (a bit creepy as we work so differently) You haven't said which if any you would back, I would only consider Ballylusky as a bet subject to price, I expect I would want a bigger price than you.

It is Cheltenham were we differ, I make Eternal Spring, Kadarann, and Fadalko the selections in these races. With ES and K being the strongest, of these 2 K is the only one I have backed.

Hope you have a good day if you play, (that goes for everyone)!

2.05 Ling Leitrim Lakes

Mtoto

Guest would probably say to you that Kadarann carried only 10 - 7 in its only handicap win

I know you don't care too much for the weight argument so 11 - 12 is not a problem for you

if you make kadaran c/f in a class b then why is europa not c/f in a c, when it ran kadaran close giving it weight?

thanks again statajack you are very kind. good luck today everyone.

Well done with ES and K

Mtoto,

Well done indeed. I had Kadaran as second choice, but my second choices have done me proud so far today - except for my nap selection of course. I don't always get the right results, but I do see sense in your filters.

Well done again.

Oldtimer

Good calls today

Johnd
Mtoto

Well Done

Continued respect. Well done.


Johnd,

Well done.

A Good day at the office,Well done to both of you.