DETERMINED
Hiya, nice to hear from you again.
Intersky Falcon was undoubtedly impressive in his Kempton win, but you would expect that from a short runner, over a sharp course, in a race run at a steady pace. Both factors were against RB that day, and the 3rd horse, Sporazene, seems to be little more than a very good handicapper.
I.F. has been found wanting every time he has been asked a question when given a stiff enough test, including his last run, and holding him up may enable him to produce a turn of foot in the right circumstances, but he will still have to run a stiff 2m in the same time as the other runners, and I can't see him doing it, however he is ridden, if there is a proper championship pace on.

Looking through the other Championship races at Cheltenham, there appear to be few other worthwhile bets, (From my VDW perspective).
The Gold Cup looks a laydown for Best Mate, the Champion Chase seems to rest between the first 2 in the betting, and the Stayers looks to be Baracouda's again, though I think an each way bet on Sh Boom may be more rewarding, if backed 'with a run'.
The novice hurdles have too many entries to warrant serious study yet, so. apart from the handicaps etc., that just leaves the Arkle, so here goes;

THISTHATANDT'OTHER
Obviously held in high regard, and given his first outing over this c/d, which suggests his trainer knew where he was going.
Unbeaten over fences apart from his 2nd to Carraciola, where he was beaten by a speed horse over a speed track. His trainer put the defeat down to the race coming too soon after his previous race, but his previous 2 races were similarly spaced, which gives cause for doubt.

CARRACIOLA
Has beaten 2 of the principals this season, (Our Armageddon being the other), but both were disadvantaged by the circumstances on the day. Overall form unconvincing, and has a lot to prove.

KICKING KING
2nd in last year's Supreme Hurdle, and has done little wrong over fences. His lto defeat of Central House is high class form, particularly in view of the trainer's comment that he wasn't 100% happy with the horse before the race.
Throws in the odd iffy jump, but certain to be trained to the minute, and the one they all have to beat.

CENTRAL HOUSE
Beaten once by K.K., and would have have been beaten by him twice had K.K. stayed on his feet. Best he can hope for is a place, barring accidents.

OUR ARMAGEDDON
Possible pacesetter, but his Haydock 2nd, where he was done for speed in a race run at a decent pace, along with the rest of his form, suggest he needs further at this level.

WELL CHIEF
Least exposed of the principals and a very good hurdler who finished 2nd in a substandard Triumph last year. Keen going horse who may not last home.

I dont think the pace will be slow so it wont suit Rigmarole and help RB,

JIB
It would be very rare for a Champion Hurdle to be run at a steady pace, or,indeed, most of the races at the Festival.

Jd, Rab,

I agree a slow pace is unlikely, however the field is now down to 17 and Hobbs has no second horse that could act as pacemaker so at least a steady pace is not impossible.

I am naturally biased against older horses as they must in the end give into the new champions. Rigmarole came to my attention last summer when a little program I have identified him as a lay in two consecutive grade C hcps. Although I lost both times I remember emailing Rab to say that Rigmarole was miles ahead of the O.H. and would win some nice races at juicy prices.

Rigmarole has had his mark rise from 122 to a current 157 in the last 6 months, and as a 6yo there is certainly much more to come. Unless there is soft going I would say hes going to win this comfortably slow pace or not.

Anyway - Bugger "Trainer Intentions" - what about "Jockey Intentions" !!!!

Have you noticed over the last few days - just how selective, McCoy has been with his rides. !

He clearly wants to avoid injury in the run up to Cheltenham,- but he also needs the Winners !!

Not a bad strike rate !!!

tc

hi everyone good to see more posting on vdw ideas,going to speed figures, vdw mentioned about listing 3 year olds with a speed figure i believe of seventy at a grade one track, i remember guest posting some info on this, does anyone know what the adjustment you need to make to split seconds new speed figures[why did he change proven method weight adjusted?] thanks

JIB
Re Rigmarole; 157 is probably a stone short of Champion Hurdle class, and, unless the pace is a joke, I still think RB will have his neasure.
Will be intereting to see how it tuns out.

And so say - "All of us"


tc

Anyway !! -


More "McCoy" - again, - a nice selective 2/2 !!!

and guess who won "Johnsons" only ride of the day ???


VDW did promote "Psycology" - even if I can't spell it !!


tc




[This message was edited by Tuppenycat on March 12, 2004 at 01:08 PM.]

CHELTENHAM TUESDAY

Rooster Booster and Kicking King still look good bets to me, along with Alexanderthegreat in the 5.20.
Brave Inca was tempting in the first, but unless it comes up really soft, may need a little further.

hooray
before the event tips,unlucky john

GREG
Thanks for that, perhaps I should have done a placepot.

CHELTENHAM WEDS.

A quick summary of today's possibles.
In the 2.00 Inglis Drever is no certainty to stay this if there is a good pace. Too many unexposed otherwise.

In the 2.35 Out Vic has been raced and placed like a horse they think a lot of, and isn't one to take on lightly, though his jumping remains open to question at this level. Royal Emperor may be next best, but would be better on softer.

3.20 Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop stand out, and it looks a question how much A has improved.
No mileage in the prices though, even for forecast betting.

4.00 Rhinestone Cowboy has been found wanting in both his races at the top level, and may be a 'bridle horse'. I don't think Mughas will stay,given a decent pace. Hopefully that should leave the door open for Monkerhostin.

4.35 Magical Bailiwick is a lazy horse, but has run well in some decent races, while giving the appearance each time of needing further. Hopefully, the visor should sharpen him up enough to win this.

Two bets for me today, Monkerhostin and Magical Bailiwick.
Good luck to all.

Good to see this thread going again.

If anybody is interested,at Huntingdon 4.55 today,the Novice Chase was interesting.My interpretation of vdw meant that I could not seperate Sossus Vlei and The Extra Man,however I had Metal Detector well out of it.I could not see the winner coming outside these two.

This is to my mind a typical example of how I "work vdw",it may not be correct,but it works for me.

A dutch and a lay,in the same race,so a good result,certainly easier than Cheltenham,sorry about the after timing,just thought it may be of interest to somebody.

PIPEDREAMER
Good to hear from you again, at the moment this thread needs all the help it can get.
Looking at your bets from yesterday, do you ever consider forecasts when a race is as cut and dried as this one appeared to you. I note that yesterday's csf paid almost 9/1.

CHELTENHAM, THURS.

A muddling card for me, with only 2 races worth an interest.
In the Stayer's Hurdle, Baracouda looks like the proverbial, but Sh Boom is of some interest.
Already has a comfortable c/d win over Crystal D'Anaiy on his CV, and has been trained all season for this. Even if you write off the win portion of the bet, he is still 7/4 to get in the first 3, and that should be nailed on, barring a joke pace.
The only other of interest is Seebald, 4.35.
The class in the race, particularly over this c/d, his trainer has managed to get 10lb off his OR this season, and now returns him to his best trip. He is only a small horse, but is well capable of carrying the weight unless the ground gets too soft.
Luck to all