consistent horses,

laouen 3
altay 5
man o,mystery 5
cita verda 6
loop the loop 6 (14?)

nothing but conflict there eh, numerical picture indicates cita verda as common to both lists and by all accounts is an improving handicapper.

lets look at it from c/f

1st is in contrast, supported by ability rating- oh yum yum, if you dont mind the weight issues !!

Barney,

How’s it going?

All horses worth consideration in the Swinton are going up in class today, which is always worth noting. In Contrast was dropped last time to collect in a similar way to Roushayd and is now back up in class and giving lumps of weight away to consistent, unexposed form horses such as and Man O Mystery and Laouen. If I was going to bet it would be these that I’d be looking at.

In the long distance hurdle at Haydock I’ll be backing Persian Waters after a decent effort in the Coral Cup, getting stacks of weight from Deanos Beano and a few pounds from Carlovent.

Couldnºt stay away.

Very cloudy and dull here in Lanzarote so Iºve found this Internet site.

Hi Lee,

not bad thanks for asking, and thanks for joining in a bit.

I agree in the 140 the handicaper has given several of those novices a chance but It's a watching and learning brief for me in that one Im afraid.


Hi determined,

you Addict!lol.

Both Bahamian Pirate and Carnival Dancer will have conditions to suit today.

Man Of Mystery receiving all that weight from In Contrast might be a probable.

Cheers,

Chester Cup,

Iºll be very interested in how Hugs Dancer looks from a VDW angle next week.

Also, remember Faithful Warrior.

Must go,

vanman
why use an ability rating,when it does not pick up on horses like man o mystery,just because in contrast has won more prize money,i think i read that mtoto uses a different ability rating,which i think is very wise,what im saying is that you use your ratings to narrow the field down,to a possible bet,but by ability ratings you are discounting good novices.

Lee
Good call mate,And a decent price taboot.

Greg,

the ability rating will highlight the horses to bet on, the cross checks of other factors like consistency, last race class and the opposition today will show wheteher the horse is in with a chance.

In contrast had failed to give weight away in easier races than todays and that precluded a bet.


Well done Lee!

Nice one

Greg,

One of the reasons I don't like the conventional ability rating is because it doesn't look at the class the wins were achieved in. In saying that, I can't see how class is gauged accurately by prize money. I have to admit the ability rating I use just doesn't register novice form in any other type of race. (If the BEST form is achieved in a novice race.) So the novice form was ignored in the Swinton.

Chaz/Johnd, could you drop me a line, I'm afraid I've lost your addresses.

Be Lucky

Anyone help?


Why was mithras taken and yet gaye chance left?

Is it down to practice and know how?

jib
I know this is a bit belated,But how you could consider Wilful a roushayd type is beyond me,It must be your'e superior knowledge of the subject.

Barney - VDW only said they were selections, he didn't say he backed them all. I would be amazed if that was his betting log for that week in December.

Mtoto - The ability rating a horse gains doesn't gauge the class of opposition beaten previously, true. But there are logical ways of confirming the class and form of those invloved. It is the combination of all relevant factors that shows the way on this front.

Barney,

Could the simple answer be, because it was a different method? Could it be classified as a c/form horse relative to the rest of the field?

Be Lucky

Re- the Abiity Rating, Desert Deer didn`t beat much at Sandown for the class of race i.e penalty value involved.
Is one right in thinking his ability rating will now be exaggerated or unreliable if taken alone or at face value, and if so could someone tell us what other methods of rating will confirm his winning potential in relation to future opposition & class of race?.Hope im not asking too much.

mtoto,

all horses I have looked at so far, 15th re look, are c/f.


Guest,

have these selections been whitled down in the same way as the boxing day selections " but only stray shot and zamandra should be taken"?

If not, I have only just recieved the form books so not done a thorough yet, which in your opinion could be considered as bets?

All,

On my bloody holidays and yes I have taken several old formbooks with me to study some of the old egºs.

The Ela Mana Mou, Hawaiian Sound type bets look ok but Son Of Love.

A question if I may. Had he won a race at 2 years.

He was certainly consistently consistent in better class than the majority of the opposition. The absolute class horse !

How could Cracaval be 2nd favourite and Niniski whilst clearly on the improve. Did his form compare with SOL ?


A/n ? - how many factors to determine in formness are we actually looking for.

Any comments would be much appreciated.

Cheers,

Walter - Possibly, though the next opposition would have to be taken into account. It's this balancing act that needs to be done but is relative to the class of race and opposition on the day. On the one hand he didn't have much to beat at Sandown, as noted in the race evaluation process. However, the race had class as an event in that it was there to attract any takers. Keep thinking along the lines you are though.

Determined - Son Of Love had won two races at Longchamp extended 1m and Evry 1m 2f. The ability rating was 49, but it was a 3yo race of course.

Barney - I don't know the answer to that, though I would say most of the Chase examples were there to be backed given a reasonable price. The handicap hurdle method is tricky because he gave us virtually no pointers to go on. There are factors I have spotted in the selections given that I haven't heard discussed before and they do provide some nice winners, but not as consistently as VDWs examples implied. Exposed form was not that evident though in the hurdle examples adn he did say it was completely different to the method for chases, which does feature exposed form.

Just out of interest, in relation to unexposed form, did anyone note Persian Lightnings last run?