Barney

I didn't even look, as I rarely bother with Irish racing. Like Mtoto, the only race that engaged me yesterday was the Victoria Cup.

Must be prepared to work,

Does anyone have typical weeks like this?

commence dec 16th

4/1
4/1
7/2
9/4
5/6
1/2
14/1
12/1
13/2
11/4
11/4

Barney
Don't give the doubters Bullets to fire.

investor,

they are VDW's selections not mine.

I just wondered who else is getting this right because the " I only check two races a week ", just does not sit right with how VDW was operating.

Investor,

how you did not have a book yesterday is beyond me, you were lucky!!

Barney
I took the pipe horse into consideration,When i evaluated the race,But there was something about Banjo Hill that doesn't occur very often,Hence my comment to Mtoto about Pegwell bay.Don't forget Prince Sornierres Had been dropped to a poor grade track to collect,And the form wasn't exciting.Now going up slightly at another poor grade track,And of course we know where Banjo hill was coming from,I had a good long look at Norlandic aswell but the horse was well out of form.

Oh dear, oh dear!!

Barney,

The list of prices would be of more help if they were accompanied by names and dates. I assume they are VDW selections, could you put the other details? Were they all winning selection, and the only selections for the period?

Investor,

I can see were your coming from with Banjo Hill. With the amount of racing I haven't the time to work s/f for all races. I confine MY selections to horses that have reached a certain level in C class races, or above ONLY. This horse hasn't achieved that requirement. I agree in this case I have missed a winning selection. I find it is better to miss a few, than to risk money in races with low class horses.

Guest,

Funny you should mention Cossack Guard. He was one of the first horses that helped me form an opinion on how I thought VDW worked. On reading the form of these 2 horses I came to the conclusion VDW hasn't interested in weight, as CG was handicapped to reverse placing's with B. I have to admit I was reading it with a copy of his thoughts on the 2,000 Guineas. I thought they came from the same book.

I can't understand how/or why the ability rating only works when you know how VDW looked at form. If it is an accurate rating, shouldn't it a stand alone tool? I can see other elements come into the equation, but they need a sound base to work from. To go back to Lord Protector, he had an ability rating of 20 (or there about's) why did you decide to use the speed/merit formula that showed him in a much better light? I hesitate to say it, a better reflection of his true ability.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

they are the horses from TUWOF "must prepare to to work" and " a puzzle to follow"

week commencing 16th Dec 1985

contradeal
grannies pet
yacare
misty spirit
ragged robin
nassau royal
mithras
windbreaker
islay mist
flying oats
merry jane
pagan sun.


They are the only horses listed for that period and were illustrated to show "potential of the method"

There is, what in my opinion is, a good statement shortly following

"FREQUENTLY PEOPLE OPINION AUTHORITATIVELY THAT IT IS ONLY THROUGH FORM THAT WINNERS CAN BE FOUND"

[This message was edited by Barney on May 01, 2003 at 04:31 PM.]

Mtoto,


Mithras- W 14/1

not in the forcast area
not in the three most consitent from forcast
not in the three most consitent from entire field

Barney,

VDW said all these horses were from a different method, I have no idea what it is based on. The burning question must be is it a possible c/form horse? Can it be described as a form horse? VDW seemed to be suggesting that with the list of horses, the method could be worked out, can it? If so, does it tie in with the c/form method?

Be Lucky

Mtoto - Cossack Guard was mentioned by VDW for the same reason he mentioned Sea Pigeon, Lesley Ann, Failiq, Turk. To help those looking closely at his bets see just the sort of attributes VDW was using to determine good and equally not good relative form.

VDw once said that he had long held the belief that no single factor could consistently find winners in racing. Only combining factors could do this. His ability rating, as he clearly warned, will prove false if not used as intended. You can't just say this horse has a higher rating than another so he must beat it in a race. The rating is used as just one of the tools in creating a picture that can determine if the said horse has the form that confirms the rating and can fulfill the task being set.

Hi all,
There is an interesting letter in the Raceform this week from a gentleman who has looked at the last three figures of a horses form and used data from 14 years flat racing.
Form win %
111 25%
222 24.4%
211 21.5%
221 21%
011 19.8%
121 19.7%
321 18.7%
332 18.5%
122 17.5%
112 17.4%
101 17.4%
131 17%
313 15.9%
013 15%
333 14.4%
001 14.4%
Quite a variation on the figures we would normally work with but still showing the consistency required I think.
Note the first 7 places are all filled with consistent horses.
Just thought these figures may provide food for thought.
See you soon, Mike.

I'm looking forward to your crit from the speed rating angle of my selections, if you've missed them they're on page 483.

Fulham
Any progress in deciding which races suit the method?

Epiglotis
I had missed your selections.
I shall peruse them over next day or 2 and let you know
Cheers
Swish

Great, thanks for taking the trouble.

Epiglotis

I currently focus almost exclusively on the higher class handicaps. The c/f approach as I understand works out particularly well with more established horses, and the prices are almost always higher than in non-handicaps of broadly comparable class.

anyone fancy a crack at the swinton hurdle?

ability ratings (from the top)

in contrast 139
patsy veale 84
castleshane 73
brooklyns gold 69
cita verda 68
colourfull life 67
tramantano 67