Guest
I agree that AZERTYUIOP or IMPEK is the one.
Personally I would go with AZERTYUIOP

Also agree RHINESTONE COWBOY will not win,

Swish

Guest

All Joss Naylors hurdle and chase wins are on soft.

Is that not a concern for today ?

GUEST/MTOTO
Two very interesting posts, good luck for today.
Only one bet for me today, Rooster Booster; forget his lto run as he has run below expectations every time he has met heavy ground.
Intersky Falcon's lto defeat of Santenay is not good enough (IMO), and there are questions about this stiff 2m at a championship pace.
I did have a look at Youlneverwalkalone, 4.00 ,but there is some doubt about his stamina for this, so no bet.
It would be interesting to see other members views ,and how they approach the race.
Good luck to all.

johnjo-rhinestone cowboy

its apparent already that this trainer is unconventional.

I agree with most that has been said about this race.

He could well have gone for the novice race and probably would have won, BUT HE HAS NOT.

The price is getting longer and longer all the time probably, in part, due to the information that is being circulated that intersky falcon is prefered, and in no small part, the NOVICE EFFECT.

Every other runner is exposed and johnjo is no fool, he knows this, and there have been many opportunities for the horse to be tested but non have been taken, even if you consider the race against last years winner.

I think the bus driver is giving us a clear message.

Barney - Hors La Loi III is a very good horse as his win last year showed, but what has he shown prior to any of his runs this season?

If he had run better at kempton prior to Wincanton, as he did last year, it would have been different.

However, I wouldn't put you off Rhinestone Cowboy as he could well justify the reputation but he doesn't have as much in common with horses such as Alderbrook as many think. True they both won the Kingswell easily, but what did they beat? Alderbrooks beaten opponent had just run 2nd to Mysilv in a much higher class race than Wincantons when favourite.

Good luck to all.

Guest,

I have taken the view that hors la loir would have beaten rooster booster and that the only thing that prevented him giving intersky falcon a damn good thrashing before the kingwell was the soft?He usually pulls up! That was his best ever form in those conditions.

The bumper last year with pizzaro, proves in my view, that the comments that "he wont find anything off the bit" a myth.


A lot of "ifs, buts and except for's" I appreciate and I am not trying to contradict you or undermine your analysis, its just an opinion.

Hi all,

For me it is going to be a day of not too much action. I couldn’t have Rhinestone Cowboy purely on what he’s achieved on the track. For me, and my style, there are too many in with a chance in the race to get involved.

In the Arkle Azertyuiop is the talk horse, but again hasn’t yet confirmed the hype over the larger obstacles, whilst Impek has the best form as a chaser. For me it’s between the two, my money is on Impek, but the stake is saved if Azertyuiop does today confirm the hype.

Nothing else interests me today. Whatever you do, I hope you enjoy some of the best racing in the world. Good Luck.

Heres something interesting from the telly this morning, from the first five home in the champion hurdle last year none have won a hurdle race yet this season, that surprised me somewhat, ive backed three today 2.00 back in front, 2.35 azertyuiop, 4.00 joss naylor.they are saying the ground could be slightly dead so i hope thats ok for joss naylor im a bit wary of iznogoud in that race though.Its a great days racing enjoy it everyone .

For what it's worth here are my thoughts on today's races....

2:00 The ability horses have all shown their best form on right handed tracks. If Rinestone is half the horse some think he is Thisthatandtother will win, but I will just be watching.

2:35 I make Azertyulop the LAY of the day. I think Impek will win, I am worried he may play up and/or boil over. 7/1 covers those doubts, just. Again a race I will just watch,and wait until the last minute if he behaves, maybe. Although I do think Hand Inn Hand will be placed at a very fair price.

3:15. As I have said I don't think this is the right course for Intersky Falcon. I will be having a e/w bet on Santenay at 33/1, hoping the undulations will suit him. He has won at Chepstow, and his only run at Cheltenham wasn't too bad. My heart will be with Hos La Loi I have backed him twice at the festival, and he won both times. I don't think he received the credit he deserves for his win last year.

4:00 Royal Auclair is the BEST HORSE on the figures. Not a race I will back in as I can find to many doubts.

5:20 Chopneyev has everthing I look for. He was beaten by a very well handicaped horse last time. Over a distance that wasn't right, even then he showed his class by being so hard to beat. The hill should hold no fears for him.

Be Lucky

Hi all,
I have to say that I am in complete agreement with the majority here. I have backed Impek and Intersky Falcon as to me and to others they have the best form on offer in their respective races. At least I know if I lose I won't be alone.I also looked at Iznogoud for later but have'nt come to a decision about him yet.
Good luck to all, Mike.

Hi all,
Well I think all Impek supporters knew their fate when he clouted the 2nd last. Until then I really thought he was going just as well as the favourite and about to make his challenge. Still jumping is the name of the game and that is where Azertyuiop won it.
See you soon, Mike.

Unfortunately this is a bit late and due to my internet link going down Ive had to go to the library to post this. I couldnt split Impek and Azertyuiop and apart from them, the numerical pictures today only throw up Chopneyev as the "winner in its race." Its form on its own looks good enough but at this moment I havent begun to work my way through the form of the other runners ie the probability aspect.
regards,

Average field size 18. What do know, if that isn't reinteration sing me another.

Epiglotis/JIB

The position in the ability rating rank is neither here nor there: its the position in the ability rating rank of the FORM horses that is key.

2.00 personally I don't look at races like this (or tomorrow's first race), with far too many runners with very little form - so all the more credit to Guest for balancing class and form correctly and finding the winner.

Otherwise, it was an excellent day from the c/f point of view:

2.35 Azertyuiop, the c/f, won - though not at a price remotely tempting to me;

3.15 Rooster Booster, the c/f on my reading of the in-formness of Like A Butterfly (though I accept that others may take a different view about LAB), won. Not a bet for me, given his last run, but Johnd was correct, and congratulations to him;

4.00 Youlneverwalkalone, in my view a very solid c/f and my only bet of the day (I mention this only because I confirmed it by email, well before the off, to another member of the board who had also found and backed it);

4.35 Ibis Rochelais, in my view a decent c/f though not one strong enough to bet, 2nd and beaten by one I would suggest was hard to see as the winner on any way of reading of the Form Book;

5.20 Chopneyev, in my view a good c/f though not quite strong enough to back, the only one who ran significantly below expectations.

You'll note that of the five c/fs, as I see them, only one was top rated in the field on ability (and, quite coincidentally, that was the only significant under-performer on the day).

Wed 12/3/03

Ability Ratings Betting Forecast Order

235 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase

Keen Leader 115
It Takes Time 107
Jair Du Cochet 120
Barrow Drive 132
One Knight 65
Stars Out Tonight 45
Iris Royal 95
The Bajan Bandit 53
Sea Drifting 32

315 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Moscow Flyer 243
Tiutchev 231
Cenkos 198
Kadarann 100
Edredon Bleu 247
Flagship Uberalles 316
Florida Pearl 422
Native Upmanship 240
Seebald 81
Latalomne 56
Geos 192

JIB - I agree with Fulham that the order of rank on the basic ability rating is of no consequence in practice. I did demonstrate the figures for 3 Cheltenham festivals over the weekend and by far the most significant VDW factor was consistency and being a "form" horse.

I really don't understand why people continue to rubbish the simple fact that the top ability rated will not nor ever has won more than a minor percentage of races. The ability rating is next to useless unless it is allied to form and form the way VDW saw it. The whole point of VDW devising his own way of appraising class and form was for the simple reason that popular conventional methods are unprofitable.

I'll be posting my thoughts on Wednesday later.

510 Mildmay Of Flete HCP Chase

Europa 47
Fondmort 189
Go Roger Go 133
Lady Cricket 195
Ballinclay King 111
Goguenard 95
Hermes lii 47
Horus 126
Master Tern 116
Arctic Copper 85
Armaturk 127
Scots Grey 49
Young Spartacus 125
Blowing Wind 158
Fadalko 206
Silence Reigns 49
Tresor De Mai 110
Cregg House 72
Juralan 56
Arctic Fancy 39
Chergan 69
Davids Lad 141 ** May Not Run