Thursday,

2:00
Nas Na Riogh
Mutineer
Golden Cross
Don Fernando
Lilium de Cotte

2:35
Deano’s Beeno
Baracouda
Classified
Limestone Lad
Liss A Paoraigh

3:15
Behrajan
Best Mate
Beef Or Salmon
See More Business
Valley Henry

4:35
Dark’n Sharp

5:10
La Landiere

5:45
Xenophon
Spirit Leader

Could someone please put up the ratings for the 2:00 race? thanks

CHELTENHAM THURSDAY
In the Gold Cup, I would agree with Guest that BEST MATE looks a good thing. Winner last year, and unbeaten since even though racing under adverse conditions on both occasions.
BEEF OR SALMON would be the main danger, winner of 2 very good races last twice, and as yet, unexposed. Even if he does improve on his last run, he would stilll have it to do against BM, who,(IMO), has also improved from last year.

In the last race, XENOPHON ( If a runner ), represents a good bet to see off SPIRIT LEADER and NON SO. An interesting contest between these 3 from a number of angles; it will be interesting to see how many are prepared to stick their head above the parapet, particularly from the weight point of view.

The only other horse I considered today was ESKLEYBROOK in the 4.35. Thought by his previous trainer to hold a good chance in this race a couple of years ago, he has now returned from the wilderness to win his last 2 races, the only question for me is the real value of his recent form.
Good luck to all today, particularly Mtoto with his juicy ante-post in the Gold Cup.

Triumph - ability ratings

174 Moneytrain
141 Mutineer
137 Golden Cross
113 Well Chief
105 Don Fernando
103 Duke Of Earl
96 Nas Na Riogh



County Hurdle

334 Xenophon
301 Spirit Leader
237 Holy Orders
194 Say Again
177 Polar Red
124 Never
102 Non So
102 Miss Ritual

Determined

Of your list of the eight highest ability rated in the County Hurdle, in my view only three are form horses today - Xenophon, Spirit Leader and Non So.

Ordinarily, I would see the c/f - Xenophon - as a good bet, but if he runs it will be his second race in barely 24 hours, and to me 7/2 does not adequately factor in the question of whether he can cope with that.

County Hurdle - the weight factor.

Johnd has already hinted that the weight factor will be of interest in this event today and I totally agree.

SPIRIT LEADER - is set to carry 21 lbs more actual weight today or is she ?
She is clearly in the form of her life, is ultra consistent in top class h`caps and is down in class today. Some may suggest she looks to have an outstanding chance today however lets look at the weight aspect more closely,

her last 5 runs have seen her carry 10-00 twice ( running loose ) to victory and in the other 3 she has carried 11-04, 11-01 and 11-06.

A pattern clearly emerges which has already been confirmed in comment by her trainer, ie -she is far better off carry a low weight.

I stated earlier that she carries 21 lbs more actually weight today. May I suggest that she infact will be carrying approx` 14 - 16 lbs more if considering the dead weight scenario.

Todays race will be in effect a 2 mile sprint up a demanding hill at the finish. In short, the extra weight will stop her today ( in my opinion).


NON SO - carries 22 lbs more actual weight today but again looking at the dead weight scenario it will more than likely be less.

Non So unlike SL has already carried 11-05 and 11-06 to victory and on that basis alone I expect him to finish in front of SL today. That said, he`ll have to climb the hill.


Summary - Non So to beat SL but where do they both stand in the whole picture of todays race ?

Cheers,

[This message was edited by Determined on March 13, 2003 at 08:12 AM.]

Fulham,

I must have been posting my waffled message at the time you was posting.

I agree the 3 you have mentioned are form horses and I to agree that of the 3 Xenophon is the most likely but like you it is too much of a risk to back X at the price as there is every chance he`ll feel the effects of yesterday.


I will not be playing in the race but the one lurking at the bottom namely Direct Bearing looks the plot horse.


Cheers,

Determined

Both Spirit Leader and Non So have won with the weight they carry today, albeit not at this class (and you may wish to have a look at Guest's post of 9.55pm on 10/12/02).

Direct Bearing strikes me as a very speculative proposition, but one never knows.

Fulham,

Direct Bearing is speculative but how many races of this nature are won by such horses. Quite a few I would guess.
Just to make sure there is no misunderstanding I am saying DB is NOT a bet for me.


With regards your reference to Guest`s post. Rest assured I will be giving it a good read shortly.

A question again if I may.

I note Guest makes Vol Solitaire 2nd on class/form which makes both Dark n` Sharp and F.Du Cochet out of form.

I am having difficulty in understanding why ?

With regard VS, this is a horse I like today however he is a novice who has been running in small fields. Novices do have a good record in this event and I must admit the available price is tempting.

Cheers,

Determined - Not necessarily "out of form' but not "form horses for this race". There is an important difference as VDW often suggested along with his observation that the term "form" means so many different things to different people in racing.

DETERMINED,
fdc 18th jan when conditions were in favour?

We go back to pegwell bay race discussion.

Barney, Guest, Fulham

Thanks for trying to help this very slow learner along. You`ll need plenty of patience as I`m sure you`ve noticed I do take alongtime for things to sink in.

With regards both DNS and FDC. In their recent races I NOTE BOTH HAVE FAILED IN COMPARABLE CLASS WHEN CONDITIONS WERE IN THEIR FAVOUR AND CARRYING LESS WEIGHT THAN THEY ARE SET TO CARRY TODAY.

Is that close ?

determined,

I dont know why you think the races are comparable, they are like chalk and cheese from a vdw point of view.

Determined

Of the five top rated on ability in the Grand Annual:

Korakor - AR 145; not a form horse in my view;

Fadoudal du Cochet - 115; a case can be made, with clear improvement lto. But in my view could hardly be viewed as a form horse given penultimate run;

Dark'n Sharp - 111; I suspect VDW would have "excused" the fall on penultimate run as it was relatively early and there is no indication that he was out of things at that stage. Without that race, the form looks progressive, but does it really amount to in form? Not for me;

Risk Assessor - 103; not a form horse for me;

Turgeonov - 101; I think the UR can be "excused" on essentially the same basis as Dark'n Sharp's fall. On that basis, my concern would be the performance lto, so not a clear form horse for me.

Working on down:

Exit Swinger - 93; some improvement lto under a big weight, but for me not good CONSISTENT form;

Bleu Superbe - 91; not a form horse;

Vol Solitaire - 87; a clear form horse.

Overall, a tricky race, with bits of arguments that can be made for several of the higher rated on ability, but for me none of the top seven is a solid form horse, which leaves me at number 8 - Vol Solitaire.

As you say, a novice, who has yet to run in any kind of handicap chase. I much prefer to stay with horses with good consistent form and proven capability in handicaps, and will not be backing VS (or anything else in the race), unless David Lyons says it is "expected", in which case I'll post again.

Subject to doing some more work on the Cathcart, and a re-appraisal of the 5.45 when the final list of runners is known, another no bet day as regards Cheltenham. But the 4.20 Southwell may have possibilities.

Barney,

Comparable was used in reference to the Kempton race in January when both DNS and FDC ran and not FDC`s run last time.


Fulham,

Thanks for your evaluation of the 4.35.

Cheers,

The two today I (like everyone else) have come up with are Barracuda and Best Mate. Both should win barring any "sudden shocks."
regards,

Determined

David Lyons has made no mention whatsoever of Vol Solitaire. He's probably resting on his laurels after seeing one of his two AP bets for the Festival win yesterday, and the only horse he has mentioned from his usual sources is Don Fernando in the 2.00, which he is backing EW and assures us is NOT the stable's second string. (Lyons says McCoy was told to ride Well Chief: presumably because of the ownership.)

I have unhappy memories of Don Fernando, backing him to beat Saintsaire which he duly did, only to be overtaken by Moneytrain. It will be irritating if DF wins today unbacked, so I may break with normal and have a few pounds EW from a sentimental, rather than VDW, perspective.

Otherwise, Lyons has just mentioned that he is backing two of the well-fancied Irish horses: Limestone Lad and Beef and Salmon, but is not suggesting that any of the three he has named today should be a bet for his clients.

So, no bet for me in the 4.35.

Fulham,

Thanks again for the Lyons snippets.


Statajack,

Those backing Barracouda last year thought Xmas was early given his starting price.

With the massive Irish following for Limestone Lad those playing on `B` again today may again obtain a better than expected price.

Good luck if you play both Barracouda and Best Mate.

I won`t be which should help the cause.

Cheers,

Thursday, The thoughts of a very happy man!!

2:00, I'm going with Nas Na Riogh. She has done nothing wrong, is improving, can act on the course and going. I think Mutineer can hold Golden Cross, think the hill will suit him better. Golden Cross looked to be the winner at the last when they meet before. Then GC started to hang, and looked the weaker. Well Chief is the worry as his last race was a farce, and told us nothing except he has a turn of speed. For me NNR is a perfect example of the flaw in the VDW ability ratings. She wins her prep race, and the rating goes down.

2:35. Baracouda is the BEST HORSE in the race, and on my figures improving. Deano's Beano is next best, but a horse that has two ways of running. I don't think he will like being taken on at the front, and could easily throw a sulk. Iris's Gift could be the surprise, but no bet for me. There is just a doubt about B, does he really want it? The price doesn't cover the doubt, and a possible surprise.

3:15 My happy race, I can't lose, and a bet to nothing. I have taken 33/1 25/1 and 14/1 about Hussard Collonges, and laid him to cover my stake. Last year Behrajan was my bet in this race, and once again he is the top rated (for me). Best Mate is a silly price, there are a lot easier bets at 2/1. My main worry is the form of his stable, and I don't think he has improve this year. He has shown his class by winning on course that didn't suit. He has shown is vulnerable to a turn of speed, and wins be galloping the opposition into the ground. This time I think he will be unable to gallop HC into the ground, and if the going isn't to fast he could have trouble with Behrajan. If I'm wrong, and Valley Henry is STILL standing at the last. He may have another problem. Far to many problems at the price, glad I have had my bet. If I hadn't, not a race I would back in now. After saying all this if BM can win, I will be cheering him on we need a champion that is really great, if he wins I think he will have proved it.

I don't think Spirit Leader can carry the weight, she's to small. Also think Non So can't win, but it will be the hill not the weight.

I would like to Thank Guest, and all the others who have given their views over the festival. Plenty to think on, and I can feal some questions coming on.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

An excellent read and the very very best of luck with HC.

If HC and BM are fighting out the finish I`m not sure who`ll I be rooting for as like you it would be good to have a real champion.

Really though, given your financial interest I`ll be cheering on HC.

All the best,

Cheers,

van der wheil
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