Fulham,
Agreed that neither Korelo or Tikram were backable yesterday, but the basis for class is ability and VDW defined ability through winning performances. All the examples in his books were the highest rated on ability which were also in form-which leads us quite quickly to Korelo. We start with the top rated and work our way down. If Tikram had beaten Spirit Leader there might have been a case to consider it the class/form horse but it didnt. Ability is about what a horse has actually done in terms of £money won, whereas the merit of the form or the "degree of informness" (aaargh) comes afterwards. From what I can make out, Guest appears to be looking at the form first and failing to consider the essential prerequisite of writing out a numerical picture and then studying it before proceeding. Perhaps this is what led him a few weeks ago to bet Europa against Bleu Superbe, despite Europa to be 6th out of 7 on the ability rating? Im sure he'll let us know if this is the case...
regards,

Statajack

For NH and older Flat horses, VDW showed us, unequivocally, how to assess ability/class, and we are, I think, in absolute agreement that the ability rating is a central plank of VDW's approach.

More than once, VDW said that when analysing a race, start with the highest on ability (and work downwards). I believe, having studied the relevant evidence in detail, that Guest is right when he says (as he has several times) that the class/form horse is the highest ability rated horse that is a form horse.

Procedurally, therefore, to identify the c/f the obvious way is to list the runners in the order of their ability rating, highest at the top, and work downwards, identifying the in-form horses.

On this basis, yesterday in the Imperial Cup we had - prior to withdrawals:

Newhall - 189
Korelo - 170
True Blue Victory - 103
Tikram - 92
Bernardon - 89.
Keltic Bard - 86

Only if a convincing c/f is not found would we look at lower ability-rated horses to see if a Desert Hero lurked among them.

The issue then is how, PRECISELY, did VDW make his assessment of in-formness? I think Guest is the closest to knowing that, so I take what he says very seriously.

Guest clearly judged that the top three ability rated and Bernardon were not form horses IN THE ACTUAL CONDITIONS of yesterday's race. I had already reached that conclusion in respect of Newhall, True Blue Victory, and Bernardon, so I had Korelo as the c/f, with Tikram 2nd c/f and Keltic Bard 3rd c/f. I had also reached the conclusion that, on KNOWN FORM, Korelo could not be a VDW selection.

I think that a difference between my approach up to yesterday was that I considered later in the procedure aspects of a factor (weight) that Guest considers earlier (ie before he reaches his judgements about c/fs), and the more I reflect on this I think that, logically, Guest's approach makes better sense that mine. Thus I am now happy to regard Korelo as not a form horse in the context of yesterday's race, but if I understand Guest's position he would have been if carrying, say, 10.12 (to pick out a figure not wholly at random).

Note, however, that we are here discussing what is essentially a procedural difference between Guest's approach and mine up to yesterday evening. I think (though obviously subject to correction) that we both saw Korelo as not a bet from a VDW perspective for the same specific reason, but Guest factored in that specific reason earlier in the evaluation process than me.

JIB

Yes, it is, for example, Martin Pipe's capacity to know from work off the race-course that he had, in Korelo, a horse well able to cope with a more demanding test than we, as followers of VDW's approach, would be prepared to assume on the basis of public knowledge, ie what is in the Form Book. ("Known form" thus being shorthand for "form in the public arena, ie in the Form Book", which you'll agree would be tiresome to type too often.)

fulham,

move off won a class 3 (311) maiden at hamilton on good ground over 1m 40yds.

it carried 8-7 (including 7lb app ded) and won at 20/1.

Fulham,

I have read your posting very carefully, and still can't understand how Tikram could be classified as the c/form horse by Guest. If Korelo is discarded because of weight why not Tikram? This also for me brings into question Sunset Christo, up 10lbs and class.

Move Over had won a race of the same class, that same race the year before. In that race he carried 9st 10 lbs, are you saying the 4lb rise was the reason VDW eliminated him?

I also fail to see why in the Katys Charm race. Guest said the c/form horse had negatives against it. Why then didn't he work down the ability runners and find another form horse?

Sorry the last question should be addressed to Guest, I didn't expect any posting from him until Cheltenham. I see he has responded today.

Be Lucky

Barney

Thanks. I still can't find the damned thing, and begin to wonder if I've actually got one. Still, £10 or so will put that right.


Mtoto

Even (or, for all I know, especially) in handicaps, it seems to me that VDW viewed weight in a complex but fundamentally logical way. The evidence is that almost all of his selections had proven they could win (or run very well) with at least the weight they were set to carry in the race for which they were under consideration.

Through Barney's courtesy, we now know what I had believed all along, that that was not true in the case of Move Off. It was not true in the case of one or two others, either - eg Roushayd and Soaf - but in my view there are reasons for understanding those two just as, in the matter of "in-formness" there are means of understanding the defeats in superficially low class races of the likes of Prominent King, Celtic Pleasure and Battlement.

Given that I see no such reason applying in the case of Move Off, given Guest's posts yesterday I am inclined to the Bream view, that Battlement was the c/f (and that Move Off was not a form horse in the specific circumstances of that race). Had Move Off carried significantly less weight, I think he would have been the c/f, and the question of whether Battlement was a "good thing" would have had a different answer.

Unless I am wholly at sea, there is not the slightest doubt that Guest, Lee and Crock (and, I think, Statajack) are right in seeing weight as a very significant factor for VDW.

I can recall you in spirited discussion with Guest over Katys Charm, and will endeavour to find the posts and have a look at the race myself.

Determined - In order to evaluate or establish "form" as VDW saw it, it is necessary to take into account the conditions of the race the form is being established for along with the races the form was shown.

Handicaps by their very nature are heavily rooted in weight so it is vital to take this into account when weighing up the form and class of each run. Tikram had more weight than Korelo yesterday, but his last 2 runs were in much higher class and his win was with only slightly less weight albeit in lower class. Various factors were against him anyway as I stated on Friday night and I much preferred the chances of Keltic Bard but he was obviously pulled out on Saturday morning so we will never know.

I know some will state statistics about weight not having any effect, but I believe statistics concerning weight are useless if not used in conjunction with real form. For example Zamandra was running in a conditions race against inferior horses both via ability and class and form. She was also proven with weight and in handicaps also. Korelo had just one handicap win with a low weight so we would be guessing if he could carry more weight in the same race class.

Today at Naas, the principle races have conflict though it would be no surprise to see the handicap hurdle go to Over The First or Deponey. The shortest priced method does throw up 2 good things in my view in the shape of Poker Pal at 2.30 and Friends Amigo in the 3.30. Both are racing certainties in my view, though I wouldn't take less than 8/13 to money on either.

Mtoto

The search function seems not to go too far back, and I'm uninclined to find the posts on a page by page search, so I'm operating without knowledge of what you and Guest said at the time.

Assuming that you were discussing the race on 8/12/01, where Kates Charm at 9/1 beat Majed, and concentrating on those two only, I would say that without a doubt Majed was the c/f and Katies Charm not a form horse in the specific conditions of the race.

That Majed was the c/f seems to me to be palpable. Unless I've miscalculated from the Racing Post website, he had the higher ability rating - 76 compared with KC's 63. Lto Majed had won a higher class handicap (class 228 compared with 153 on 8/12/01), and he was proven with more than the weight he was to carry.

By contrast, KC was well beaten lto, admittedly by some high class opponents, and was carrying 7lb more than she had shown she could manage.

Well done for backing Kates Charm, but in no way could she have been a bet in that race for those who interpret VDW's approach in the way I believe Guest does and I know I do.

Fulham
Can you please give the precise spelling of "Katys Charm". Thank you.

You'll find the discussion from page 12. (there may be more earlier).

Mr Ed

It is Kates Charm.


Epiglotis

Thanks. Embarrassing to find I contributed to the discussion at the time! Nothing said then changes the view I expressed today: from what I believe to be the VDW perspective, Majed was the c/f, and Kates Charm not a form horse in the context of that race. Still, as Guest has said, form horses only win about 70% of races, and good on Mtoto for spotting one to win one of the other 30%.

Like Fulham and Mtoto ,it seems, I’ve been struggling with the Battlement/Move off scenario.That and the Celtic pleasure example just didn’t seem to fit in with how I saw the early examples being arrived at.Yet looking at things from a slightly different perspective today I can see a very good reason why VDW would have considered them to be in form or if thats not the correct term then to put it in Beacon Light terms, why they were certainly not well out of it.

Another theory I have just come up with on the Move Off example is that I wonder if its defeat in its third last race (slowly run) when carrying less than in the Battlement race may have influenced VDW’s thinking about it’s prospects.I appreciate it went on to win the Ebor next time out but that was with the benefit of a big drop in the weights and it was meeting the eventual second Grand Niece on 14 lb better terms than the last time they met. Not a theory that those who think weight doesn’t matter will take to I’m sure.

All the best.

Determined - I mean't to say earlier that I will run the class ratings through my database for Cheltenham for the same periods given last night. I'll try and get them posted later tonight.

Two bets and one winner today, though once again VDWs staking method helped show a healthy profit. Poker Pal should have shown a lot more than he did and no doubt something will come to light as to why he performed so badly. Friends Amigo showed just how important it is to rest horses that put in an apparent bad one. At one point he was available at nearly the same price he went off last time in a much higher class event.

The Move Off scenario is down to a few factors, one of which being that as a winner of a major hcp the season previous, he was unlikely to be geared up to win with topweight in a much lesser race so early on the next. I see it has also been noted that he carried a lightweight in the Ebor having failed previously in class 37 with 9-9. A look at Young Pip should also shed more light.

Plenty of posts since this morning which I`ll be trying to digest a little later.

Thanks to all those who have responded to my earlier posts.

It really is appreciated.

Cheers,

Fulham,

What is form if not one performance better than another? This is a statement made by VDW. You say Kates Charm was not a form horse by VDW methods. She had just run a race in the fastest time she had ever recorded, to me that says she is in the form of her life. Much like Roushayd, who had just done the same (or at least greatly improved on his recent efforts) In accordance with one of VDW's methods. It just so happens with this method the form is judged by the s/f. That is unless you think the writing of Systematic Betting was some sort of con. With a lot of important information missing, I don't think so. You said you didn't understand about Roushady and the weight. Could it be that as he had just shown improvement carrying 9st 9lbs, 1lb extra wouldn't have been an inconvenience?

Guest,

I've read your last posting many times, and I'm sorry to say I still can't make a lot of sense of it. Could you say how much weight does make a difference? You say Tikram carried slightly less weight in his win, is 8lbs not a significant amount? Fulham is happy to think 4lbs would be more than VDW would be happy with, and that is in the same class. There again, VDW was happy for Sunset Christo to carry 10lbs more when raised in class. If you could give some hints it would be a big help when I try to make sense of VDW's views on weight. Not that it will change my mind when assessing current races, for future bets. I hear what you say about statistics, but it does seem foolish to fly in the face of facts.

Boozer,

Did anyone answer your question re unadjusted s/f. I can't find an answer, it would be interesting to see one.

Be Lucky

GUEST,FULHAM,STATAJACK,DETERMINED,MTOTO,LEE,BREAM,CROCK..GUEST GOOD TO SEE YOUR POSTS,,COULD I ASK ABOUT THE WEIGHT FACTOR,WHEN A PREVIOUS question WAS PUT TO VAN DER WHEIL, REGARDING weight,, in connection with abathatc;;true to real form he came out in slightly lower class carrying a stone less and beat his previous conqueror who had picked up a 7lb penalty?..if a horse is set to carry more than they have previously performed well with it is reasonable to assume the day will not be theirs irrespective of other factors,was van der wheils stating that weight is essential in assessing form?

Mtoto

I think you are essentially right about Roushayd.

re Kates Charm, the fundamental issue is whether or not you accept that VDW had a particular view of what constituted a form horse which was both more precise and differed from the conventional. (No one would argue, I think, that by conventional standards Korelo on Saturday was in form.)

If you accept that VDW had his own, highly idiosyncratic way of assessing what I tend to refer to as in-formness, the question is what is that way? I think that is what VDW meant by "the missing link", and there may well be various views among folk on this board as to what it was. Personally, I think Guest either understands it, or at the very least is much nearer to understanding it than anyone else who posts informatively on this thread - but I stress that is a personal view. I think, too, that courtesy of various posts by Guest over the last 15 months, and a very great deal of hard work on my part, I've a substantial sense of what it is.

Insofar as Guest is right (and I am right in his wake) Kates Charm was NOT the c/f in the 8/12/01 race. She was below a palpably in form Majed in terms of ability, and was not, in my personal view, a form horse in the context of the race.

Neither the facts that, on other views about what VDW meant by in-formness, or conventional views about form, she may be considered to have been in form, or the fact that she won, changes the fact that, on Guest's (and my) interpretation of VDW, KC was not the c/f in the race in question.

There is no reason why anyone should pay any attention to Guest - still less to me - and clearly almost all are content to plough their own roads, which is their absolute right. All I would say is that my understanding of Guest's interpretation of VDW's class/form approach resolves, without any exceptions or caveats, ALL the VDW examples where he explicitly named the c/fs. Any alternative formulation, as Crock pointed out some while ago to Johnd, must do the same to have a credible claim to being VDW's approach.

Mtoto - Tikram won at Fontwell class 120 with 11-4 but set to carry 11-11 before J Moores 7lb allowance. He then went up a long way in class 580 beaten over 16 lengths into 4th with just 10-2 on heavy ground. 7 weeks later he went up further in class 690 with 10-0 finishing 3rd beaten 5 lengths by the class/form horse Spirit Leader. On saturday he was down to class 290 set to carry 11-12 but with 7lb less owing to J Moores claim again. This represented just 1lb more physical weight than his win at Fontwell.

I am surprised at your comments though concerning Sunset Cristo as you yourself have suggested less emphasis should be placed on last outings. Whilst the last outing is important it is not the be all and end all, that is why VDW suggested it is usually only the last 3 runs we need to establish form.

In connection to that point I have listed below the info Determined requested from the Cheltenham festivals though I have only had time to do last season.

2002

Last Class rating
Top 4/20
2nd 1/20
3rd 0/20
4th 1/20
5th+ 14/20

Interesting to note how the 3 lowest consistency ratings did at the same meeting with 11 out of 20 races going to one of this group.

Conclusion? Well, it seems VDWs suggestion that a good thing does not have to be top rated is spot on. In fact very few are top rated across the board. For example, last years Gold Cup winner Best Mate was consistent and had the highest race class rating LTO, but he was only 14th on ability rating. Stayers Hurdle winner Baracouda was top on ability and consistent but didn't figure in the top 4 class ratings LTO. Queen Mother chase winner Flagship Uberalles was 2nd on ability rating and top class LTO but not one of the consistent ratings.