Determined

To your list I would add Master Tern, 111.

Frankly I find this race too tricky.

Taking first the sub-group comprising the top four:

Fadalko - 207: not a form horse for me;

Lady Cricket - 195: an argument can be made, but I'd have hoped for better lto;

Fondmort - 190: again, the last race raises concerns, though he's down in class, weight and trip;

Blowing Wind - 158: not a form horse for me.

As will be apparent, without being for me solid c/fs, both Lady Cricket and Fondmort are high ability rated in the field, have runs within the past three months that were impressive, and for me could not be wholly ruled out. In these circumstances it is a no bet race for me, because I'd be cautious about taking these two on with a horse of markedly lower ability, even if (as some clearly are) in solid form.


Guest

According to the Post, Korelo has £62,973 win prize money to his credit, for three wins.

I hope you have as successful a day today as yesterday: it looks like a no bet day for me.

re your winner in the 1st yesterday, is there any VDW example you can suggest for us to chew on in pondering how you found it? I have no confidence at all in tackling races of that kind.

[This message was edited by Fulham on March 12, 2003 at 10:43 AM.]

FULHAM,

master tern is a non runner

Fulham,

I agree that Fadalko and Blowing Wind are outof form.

I have been pondering both Lady Cricket and Fondmort for sometime this morning and I like you would have expected more from LC last time and for that reason I make her NOT a form horse.

Fondmort in my opinion should be given the benefit of the doubt as I feel his last 2 runs were clearly over the wrong trip.

He is therefore my 1st on class/form but whilst not a bet for me I have put him up as an e/w selection on the tipping challenge as I believe he`s certain place material.

Go Roger Go has been very cleverly placed on his 3 runs this term and will show up well today.

Equally, I feel both Horus and Ballinclay King will run well.

Summary - yes, a very tricky heat although I expect the winner to come from Fondmort, Go Roger Go, Horus and B.King but none of my monies will be played here.

Barney

Thanks. I've just heard David Lyons's assessment of today's racing from the perspective of his (mainly West Country) sources, and he specifically mentions Silence Reigns as well fancied, but with enough concern about his jumping to preclude him from being one of Lyons's recommended bets.

Apart from that Lyons, who has twice recommended Korelo as a bet (both times it won), gave him as an AP bet some weeks ago when 10/1. He says that he won't be laying any of that off at anything like the current prevailing price, that Korelo has come out of Saturday's race well, will prefer today's going, and that the stable still believe he has 10lb in hand.

Lyons also says that the Pipe yard regard Tiutchev as having a major chance in the 3.15 ("never seen a horse in better condition"), BUT that Geraghty regards Moscow Flyer (which Lyons gave AP for this race months ago when 5/1) as his banker of the meeting.

I don't normally give a f... for this sort of opinion, but generally Lyons is very well informed. Whether he will have a good day today will become apparent later. But as I am too cautious to back AP, if he does then sadly I won't have benefitted.

Sun Alliance,

I wish Guest well with Jair Du Cochet but I take the view he is a rhythmn horse far better suited to a flat track like Kempton.

Keen Leader would have to prove his jumping round here before I was interested. That said, good luck to Johnd.

Both look to be the class horses but I`ll let them run.

Fulham,

I really value your comments from Lyons. Thanks very much.

Interesting you mention Silence Reigns. R.Walsh riding off 10-00 really catches my eye and this is the type of horse I would have been playing on today before I started with VDW.

FULHAM,

thanks for your lyons snippets, I always find them very interesting.

JIB,

you should watch Highlander, him with the crosses on is boots is a good example of vdw.

JIB,

The top OR in yesterday's Champion Hurdle was indeed Rooster Booster. Strange that you should mention that particular OR instead the other 5 top on OR, who finished 5th, 5th, UR when in rear, 5th and 19th.

Not that I'm for one minute suggesting you take all the OR's at face value without checking current form, that would be just as ridiculous as suggesting the ability rating should be taken without checking form, wouldn't it?

BTW, for those still trying to get to grips with the methods, then the posts of Guest today yet again contain some blatant hints on the procedure to follow.

Wednesday,

2:00
Coolnagorna. Best form on heavy, but can handle g/soft and is improving with every run. For me his form is a lot better than the 2nd rated. (Supreme Prince) His main rival, Pizarro was well beaten when stepping up in distance. C looks the winner in the race to me, although I would like a slightly better price.

2:35
I make Barrow Drive the Best Horse in the race, but the distance is a major worry. Jair Du Cochet may not be suited by the course. I couldn't have Keen Leader at the price, so a race to watch.

3:15
Tiuchev, is coming back to form, and the change of stable may be a big advantage. Last year is best forgotten as he wasn't a well horse, he hasn't really had chance to show his full potential. The course should hold no fears for him, the older horses seem on the down grade. Moscow Flyer doesn't seem to have improved from last year.

4:00,

As much as I like large Handicaps a race to watch. If I did have fun bets it would be Camden Tanner.

5:10

I make Lady Cricket the BEST HORSE, and the only consistent one at that. After watching last year when she was caught on the line carrying the same weight, I went through looking for a horse that was capable of repeating the feat. That horse for me is Fondmort but on bare form figures is not consistent. I will back them both!!

Good luck if you play.

Again nothing stands out in the main races today although Stormez from a vdw viewpoint has everything going for it and is also proven over course, going and distance in the amateur race. Its jockey is the top amateur and notwithstanding the fact that this IS an amateur race and so somewhat risky I would be disappointed if it didnt win.
BTW As my visit to the library proved so fascinating for a certain member, I'm off to the carwash this evening.
regards,

MOM,

A big thank you for the ability ratings today.


Anybody interested in tomorrow`s ?

Stayers Hurdle Ability Ratings
2.35 Chelt 13 Mar

Baracouda 211
Brother Joe 82
Classified 159
Crazy Horse 87
Deano's Beano 128
Galileo 299
Iris's Gift 93
Limestone Lad 122
Native Emperor 98
Palua 37
Sudden Shock 129
Liaa A Paoraigh 140

Good Luck

Graham

Grand Annual ability Ratings
Chelt 13 Mar 4.35

Eskleybrook 66
Dark'n Sharp 111
Turgeonev 101
Exit Swinger 93
Got one too 78
Bleu Superbe 91
Native Scout 57
Fadoudal Du cochet 115
Vol Solitaire 88
golden Alpha 37
Wave Rock 60
Risk Assessor 103
Ross Moff 83
Red ark 72
Korakor 146
Royal Jake 73
Palarshan 46
Lord Grey 57
Harvis 69
Passereau 48
Castle Prince 39

All The Best Graham

Hi all,
Cathcart Challenge Cup Chase Thursday.
Le Coudrey 305
Barton 193
La Landiere 127
Tarxien 115
Poliantas 89
Iznogoud 87
Mac's Gildoran 87
Regal Exit 47
Irish Hussar 47
Mike.

Epiglotis/JIB

Another good day for the basic VDW approach.

Focusing just on the five serious betting races:

2.00 - Pizarro, c/f, 3rd

2.35 - Jair Du Cochet, c/f, 2nd

3.15 - Moscow Flyer, c/f, won

4.00 - Xenophon, c/f, won

5.10 - ? c/f: question marks about high ability rated Lady Cricket and Fondmort surely precluded a bet by anyone following the basic method.

Which of the four clear c/fs anyone actually backed is a matter of personal judgement. But I think you would have to concede that the performance of the four, and the clear no bet implication of the situation in the 5.10, all clearly flagged before the offs, was markedly better than random selection.

The plain fact is that day after day c/fs win races because, as VDW said, they are the horses "most likely to win". Apart from being able to identify them, the real skill (where no one gets it right all the time) is knowing which ones to back. But as yesterday and today have surely demonstrated - in some of the most testing racing of the year - the c/f "pool" is one well worth fishing.

And the 5.10 points up another virtue of the approach: a clear signal of races to leave alone.

All,

The numerical picture would suggest there are good things in both feature races tomorrow, ie - Barracouda and Best Mate but racing is `never` that simple.

Cheers,

The final day with the Gold Cup the best race on the card. Again taking horses in ability order and then establishing form we can see that First Gold is well below par at the moment and not a form horse in this race.

Next comes reigning champion Best Mate who is in form and unbeaten in 2 runs since his win in this event last year. The class/form horse, super consistent and also has the best 2 runs in the race. Justified favouritism in class 870 at Kempton on Boxing Day beating Charlie Hall winner Marlbborough and grade 1 winner Bacchanal who was tragically killed next time when fav in the Pillar Property at Cheltenham. Everything goes his way and he has a first rate chance of gaining back to back Gold Cup victories.

2nd on c/f is See More Business, though his wins are below real top class these days. Continues to pave his way in the lesser races and really good horse, but not upto a peak form Best Mate.

Salmon Or Beef is 3rd c/f and is improving extremely well as a novice beating more experienced rivals. However none of those rivals rate up there with Best Mate.

So once again Best Mate looks a good thing in my view and barring accidents I expect him to win this Gold Cup.

The Stayers Hurdle has Baracouda & Galileo joint top rated on ability but Galileo hasn't been seen for a year and is now up in class against better horses over a new trip. Not a form horse.

Baracouda is interesting because he fits the exact scenario I have been talking about recently whereby a class/form horse fails to win a race he should and is then rested for a significant period. The opposite if you like of the circumstances surrounding good old Beacon Light and Burrough Hill Lad. I make Barcouda the class/form horse and I expect him to win this race again given the opposition. Limestone Lad always shows a relatively low ability rating given the amount of small races he has won and he is better than the rating implies, but the class/form evaluation in full says Baracouda is better when on form.

The only other bet I will be making is in the Triumph making a 2 horse book with 1st and 2nd class/form horses Mutineer and Golden Cross.

Fulham - The novice hurdle races are much like the 2 and 3yo events on the flat in that the ability rating needs careful weighing up with the class/form evaluation process. Wednesdays opener showed the ARs in a good light and perhaps I should have included Hardy Eustace given that he met Solerina much later than Pizarro did.

Of the other c/fs that may interest, Le Coudray is c/f in the Cathcart with La Landiere getting weight as 2nd c/f. I wouldn't bet here as there is conflict, but I wouldn't say the mare was a certainty against a classy horse like Le Coudray.

The Grand Annual has Exit Swinger as c/f with Vol Solitaire 2nd c/f but there are factors against both.

So 3 bets then on the final day for me with Best Mate, Baracouda and Mutineer/Golden Cross.

Good luck to all.