Re Scotts View's run today, Why is a horse who has raced prominently in his last 4 races, held up
at the rear of the field ( In a slowly run race)
over a furlong shorter trip than he has shown his best form at?
If anyone thinks I am talking through my pocket, I am, and with gritted teeth.
Although he ran well and may possibly have been just outclassed, I am convinced that given a more judicious ride he may well have prevailed.
For the second time this week I have highlighted
horses that have been ridden completely differently in consecutive races; anyone with any race-reading skills must have witnessed the same thing on many many occasions.
One may study form, class, speed ratings or whatever to make their selections but the final
arbiter must surely be the trainers intentions,
and unless one can guage these accurately there is always going to be some element of doubt.

VDW ONCE WROTE ( RE TRAVADO ETC ) THAT THE TRAINER TOLD YOU THE HORSE WAS REALLY OUT TO WIN.
Once again I will pose the question, do any of the contributors to this forum REALLY know what
he meant by this?????????????

MAX
I am sure that you can go some way to answering the above, but I have yet to find the common thread in your horses to note.

Regards

Johnd.

Guest

Good dutching job on the 4 oclock

pity it wasn’t FW that won it as I am not a great fan of the consistency method
It will be interesting to see where FW goes next there is scope for a further drop in class but that will require carrying weight .and I know you don’t like that scenario
But I do

Re: the 3-30

You didn’t answer the question I posed before
And neither do you have to , I understand the time it takes to answer just one on here and I don’t know how you keep up with it but
Are you not frightened by unexposed horses as in Supremacy
To me they are nearly impossible to assess


Fullham

Seems to me FW needs further or a stiff mile cos that’s the 3rd time hes stayed on
But a further drop in class seems fav or maybe both do you agree with that assessment and if he goes for a longer distance would that go against you’re way of thinking

[This message was edited by boozer on August 31, 2002 at 06:25 PM.]

Johnd

The phrase 'sent out to win' comes to mind.

If you send a horse to a track you are either evaluating its performance or having weighed up the opposition at the entries stage, sending your horse for the prize.

The best way to help a horse win is to give it an easy task i.e. repeating something that it has achieved before. VDW said look at the previous 3 races. If one of them is similar to todays competition and its last outing was a stiffer task then I believe it has today been sent out to win. The difficulty is that occasionally the horse (or connections) doesn’t feel like winning despite the form. When evaluating a race I study the runners and ask why is the trainer doing that? On Scott’s View Kevin Darley was not the pilot - why?

If you want to know where the bus is going ask the driver.

Boozer

Sorry, I'm not thinking very clearly at the moment - post football trauma - and you've lost me. Who is FP?

Fullham

Sorry My error
Just seen it, was just going to edit,just Have
Faithfull Warrior

mtoto,

i agree that there were some similarities between SV and BL mainly reduced value races however SV's form was not deteriorating with each attempt unlike BL who was finding it harder and harder each time not as hard as i found it today trying to back SV though, he's one funny bugger MJ they can win alterate races i wouldn't trust him at all, be worth a look next time though, i didnt see the race but by the sounds of it he's still in form.

Boozer

It will certainly be interesting to see how Faithful Warrior is placed next.

As a 4yo he could well still be developing, and as you say he was staying on again today and looks as though he could well get further. I certainly wouldn't rule out backing him over a bit further, despite being as yet unproven, but as ever it will be a question of assessing the situation in the specific circumstances obtaining.

Mtoto - It once again all boils down to consistently using VDws approach. How did he equate class of race and class of horse ? Why would he change this process ?

I was pretty certain Scotts View would create some interest, that is mainly why I mentioned it last night and I was fairly sure yourself and maybe others would compare him to Beacon Light. But I'll say it again, as I did last week, Beacon Light was going up in race class from all of his runs that season where as Scotts View had already won in better class and Tillerman had finished a narrow 2nd in higher class. On reflection perhaps I made too much of an allowance for the last quick run, but Court Shareef had shown good form this season unlike Sea Pigeon going into the Beacon Light race.

Still a nice profit was made with the other Chester bet. VDW gave quite a few consistency selections that hadn't won in the grade. It is the relative merits of the opposition or not that is more the point.

fw will probably be off now, today was the day, but it didnt work out, maybe sometime next season , who knows!.
walter.

Boozer - Horses like Supremacy will spoil the party every now and then, but in the main I'm not too worried about them. 100% winners is impossible due to factors such as unexposed horses, injury, falls or just bad luck in running, though the latter is used by punters as an excuse far too often in my opinion.

Consistent horses such as True Night or Coalition often beat higher class horses in handicaps when those class horses have factors against such as weight or lack of real recent form. In True Nights race today he was 2nd on class/form but still being put in a situation where he would go close. Faithful Warrior had clearly been readied for a repeat in much better races, but with a horse such as True Night in the field, it would have been crazy to pick one or the other. At the prices a strong book could be made. Coupled with use of VDWs staking method, Scotts View was totally irrelavent by five past four and a distant memory by five. No one can say Sir Mark Prescott hides all his horses ability.

This was his stiffest task to date and he nearly pulled off the prize.

Supremacy, yes an unexposed horse and trained by one of the best when running in a h`cap for the 1st time. That said, he had it all to prove today on all known form and whilst improvement was likely in a lightly raced horse I didn`t consider him a danger today.

Mesmeric finshed last season as an improving horse but I couldn`t consider him today given the lenghty absence from the course.

Summary - Scotts View in my opinion remains in form and a/n prize is for the taking this season.
Dropping back to 12 furlongs wouldn`t be a problem which opens up more opportunities.

The winner and runner up have showed improved form when upped in class.

Perhaps a race to follow.


True Night,

Thats the 4th win this year and all off a lower h`cap mark than his winning mark of 2001.

" watch how trainers place their horses "


MTOTO,

A good day but it could have been better !

Cheers,

Returning to consistent horses, when vdw asked us to consider the last 3 placings of each horse in every race down the card & review the findings, does that mean last last 3 placings, or last 3 runs? hope someone may clarify.
walter pigeon.

What do you mean "last last 3 placings"?

I'm sure that it was the last three runs whether placed 3rd better or not.Some can run terribly well, fast finishing 8th of 23 beaten 2 lgth, or something like that.VDW did actually make reference to that scenario in an illustration something along the lines of four length sixth is not the same as last of three beaten out of sight and that judgement should be used.

the roushayd example shows the last three runs irrespective of placings.

some trainers however make good use of the fact that mostly only the last three runs are shown in the "racing papers".

epiglotis im not sure what i mean , we are often asked to read what is said , it says placings not runs , maybe the truth lies somewhere in between ,thats why im asking? , ive often asked myself barney if the placings referred to in the roushayd example are the last 3 placings made by the trainer , not the horse, but then again im just probably wandering off & trying to be to clever its just a thought sorry if im wasting time.
walter pigeon.

i am getting confused now,surely last three placings and last three runs are one and the same.what else can it mean?.

Many thanks for your informative comments.You have mentioned the vdw staking plan on a few occassions,and you have also given us your selections,sometimes pre race and sometimes post race.The question I would like to ask is as follows,are all your wagers,using the vdw methodology,treated in the same manner,for staking purposes.In other words,do you use the same level of staking for each selection,or do you grade your bets.In my opinion,Lunar Leo,would be a stronger selection,than Scotts View,or True Night were today.
Barney,I am having difficulty accessing the chat room,and may have to explain via forum or by email

I see what you mean, interesting idea. Maybe one of the experts will give their interpretation. I suggest that you include both until you decide whether or not they're useful.