MoM

Davids Lad definitely won't run (as a result of legal ruling today).

400 Coral Cup HCP Hurdle

Korelo 209
Xenophon 283
Emotional Moment 116
Yeomans Point 111
Camden Tanner 49
Spectrometer 75
Tardar 44
Covert Garden 88
See You Sometime 99
Chicuelo 163
Farinel 115 **
Quazer 176
Benbyas 89
Chicago Bulls 31
Dream With Me 48
Ideal Du Bois Beury 103
Mirjan 83 **
Mr Cool 39
Persian Waters 53
Samon 30
Taming 48
Thari 95
Aimees Mark 90
Arabian Moon 49
Bow Strada 41
Galant Moss 125
Majestic 41
Anatar 52
Moving On Up 66
Upgrade 182

**Have already run but are still down to run on the Racing Post Website there may be more that I have missed**

JIB - Your donkey/Azertyuiop scenario actually proves my point. Under what possible circumstances could Azertyuiop come out as anything but a form horse against the donkey?

Fair enough if Azertyuiop had failed against the donkeys' brother Shanks prior to your hypothetical event, then that would be different.

VDWs way of establishing a form horse for any race is via relative balancing of past class and form. It is an ongoing process.

FULHAM
AS you are unwilling to share your pre-race thoughts with the many on this board who do so, perhaps in future you should confine your 'after the race' wisdom to emails to your friends.

Johnd

Yes, I think you are probably right: I'm in danger of becoming too forthcoming. Happy trails.

CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY
Busy morning tomorrow, so I will post what I have at present.
2.35
KEEN LEADER is a definite bet for me. Lto he beat a very good yardstick in Jair Du Cochet, and,(IMO), JDC had already put in a couple of questionable jumps, and was being outclassed when he parted with his jockey. A highly impressive performance from this formerly high class novice hurdler, KL also owes me from last year.
None of the English horses look good enough to bother him, (IMO), so Barrow Drive may chase him home.

4.00 KORELO looks a lay to me. He should improve for the extra distance, but it would need to be a lot to feature here.

5.10
FONDMORT, depending on what you make of his last run, could well win this. He was still travelling well until he came to the 3rd last, ( Approx 2f from home), in the 3m Racing Post Chase, and in his previous outing, was running right up to form, over a trip too short, until coming to grief close to home.
His previous run, in a very similar race to todays', was impressive, but there is enough doubt to give him a miss.
Thanks to all those who have posted ability ratings pre-race, this thread is looking much healthier than it did a short time ago.
Good luck to all for Wednesday.

JIB - Having no form at a course or distance does not correspond to a horse either being a form horse or not via VDWs approach.

If the donkey had won a race it would have to have been of similiar or better class than the races Azertyuiop had been running in. It is all relative to the race and opposition taking part today.

As a more plausible example consider The French Furze at Sedgfield today against some genuine donkeys. The class/form horse by a mile, but had he been running in the champion hurdle he would have been neither a form horse or a class horse.

Day Two and the Queen Mother Champion chase is the principle race on the card.

Top on ability rating is Florida Pearl, but as expected he has run below his best this season showing little or nothing after a brilliant last season. Some are comparing him to One Man, but that horse was brought back in trip before winning this race and what's more he was a form horse. Florida Pearl is not a form horse here.

Flagship Uberalles has been a non event this season after making a right hash at Sandown and then well out of his arena in the KG at Kempton. Can go well fresh and di win the race last season, but was a form horse then and after 3 let downs cannot be a form horse here.

Edredon Bleu won this 3 years ago and fast ground but ran flat on soft in it last year. Did very well to win with topweight at Exeter FTO then put in his place back up in class at Sandown in the Tingle Creek. Has since won 2 easy races which don't put him as a form horse for this one.

Moscow Flyer was a grade 1 hurdler and is now a grade 1 chaser taking the Arkle last season, though not against much opposition. Has now won 8 of his 11 chases meeting with 3 unfortunate exits in the other races. The ground will be ideal and whilst he hasn't beaten anything really good this season, he was a close 2nd fav in the Tingle Creek when running up the back of Flagship. He ran on riderless to the line with the wide margin winner and connections were frustrated to miss out. Has since won easily at odds on and did beat Kadarann easily FTO last Autumn. A form horse then and the class/form horse.

Native Upmanship is a close 2nd on class/form and did run a good 2nd in this race last year prior to winning the Martell Melling at Aintree. His trainer says he will be going for that race again all being well.

This race calls for a 2 horse book in my view with Moscow Flyer and Native Upmanship looking a combined good thing.

The Royal Sun Alliance Chase has 4 horses clear on ability and the highest rated is Barrow Drive who was left clear at the last by high class Le Coudray in a class 443 2m 5f chase last time at 6/1. Had previously been beaten on the same terms by 6 lengths at Fairyhouse class 299 by the same horse and then beaten by Intelligent a much lower rated horse. Not consistently a form horse relative to this race though the last run was an improvement, but that was very probably his day for now.

Next comes Jair Du Cochet who unseated his rider at Ascot when even money fav against eventual winner Keen Leader. Had previously beaten high class Le Sauvignon at Kempton in the Feltham. Has won at Cheltenham over hurdles and is very consistent. The class/form horse and also has the best speed figures by some way.

Keen Leader has fallen twice at Cheltenham over both hurdles and fences, but has been very consistent in winning elsewhere. Was 11/10 2nd fav to Jair Du Cochet at Ascot and had an easy race in the end showing his best form to date.

It Takes Time has run well on all 3 runs this season after an excellent last term. He ran 3rd under a big weight at Cheltenham fto then just failed on his chasing debut against Sir Rembrant (gave 4lb) on the same course. He then won as a good thing should at Haydock against nothing of any note. Ran well in last years Stayers hurdle to be 3rd to Baracouda with Jair Du Cochet not far behind.

The class/form horse Jair Du Cochet has nearly all the factors go his way and no doubt he will concentrate a bit more this time after his accident at Ascot. He has already beaten better horses (so far) than the others so he should be a good thing for this.

The opener shows Pizarro as the class/form horse and he has had a similiar preparation to todays winner Back In Front. Hardy Eustace ran well enough last time against Solerina but ultimately failed to beat a horse the numerical picture showed as possible to do so. Given that Pizzaro beat the same horse on the same terms, albeit earlier in the season, easily on his debut over hurdles the case grows stronger for Pizarro as a good thing.

The other races don't add up to much for me, though the Coral Cup is interesting in that the class/form horse Korelo has to concede 5lbs to the 2nd class/form runner Xenophon who has won a better race than either of Korelos wins. One or two other factors don't go Xenophons way though and I'll be watching only. The amateur race will probably go to Stormez who has form on the course at a much higher level though with a lightweight in a handicap.

So 3 bets for Weds in Pizarro, Jair Du Cochet and Moscow Flyer/Native Upmanship.

As to Tuesdays bets, a nice profit was made though I underplayed Azertyuiops ability factor when weighing the form up. Yes it hadn't beaten anything special and Impek had beaten better horses than Got One Too, BUT Impek had not beaten anything as good as Azertyuiop who had also done everything asked. I rated Youlneverwalkalones form as suspect based on it's 2nd last run relative to todays race, but in hindsight at the prices I could have made a book.

Have a good day all.

Ability ratings for Wednesday.........

2:00
Coolnagorna
Superme Prince
HardyEustace
Nil Desperandum


2:35
Barrow Drive
Jair Du Cochet
One Knight
It Takes Time

3:15
Tiutchev
Edredon Bleu
Cenkos
Native Upmanship

5:10
Lady Cricket

Sorry they are so late

Why do you spend time rating the entire field for 'ability' when it is only relevent if the horse is in form? Surely the simpler approach is to find the form horses and then rank only these for 'ability'? I know VDW told you to rate the whole field and you love to do as you're told, but that's only my explanation, I'd be interested in hearing the initiate's views on why VDW told you to do this when it's an apparent waste of time.

Johnd,

I welcome Fulham`s selections after the race for the simple reason that I learn from them.

May I repectfully suggest you refrain from having a `pop` at him.


Fulham,

I`m off work for the next 2 days and would welcome your comments on what you consider the form horses today.

My evaluations are only just starting so I`m well behind but I intend posting my thoughts later on.


All,

The very fact that Guest and Fulham came up with different selections in the same race yesterday ( Joss Naylor / Youlneverwalkalone ) just goes to show that there will always be different `opinions` .

Epiglotis

Perhaps I could respond to your question by using the 4.00 Cheltenham today as an example. 30 runners at the time of writing, and you'll agree that there are relatively few races with more.

Disregarding my own records, I have timed how long it took me to produce a rank order of ability ratings from the printed version of the Post - 6 minutes. (It would take MUCH longer from the on-line version.)

That rank order tells me that 11 of the field have ARs in three figures, and these can be further divided into three sub-groups:

Xenophon - 284
Korelo - 210

Upgrade - 183
Quazar - 176
Chicuelo - 163

Galant Moss - 126
Emotional Moment - 117
Farinel - 116
Yeoman's Point - 111
Ideal du Bois Beury - 104
See You Sometime - 100

I'm in a slight difficulty here, because if I've calculated the ARs correctly, I respectfully ask Guest whether he has made an error. Because, agreeing with him that both Xenophon and Korelo are form horses, for me it follows from the ARs that Xenophon is the c/f and Korelo the 2nd c/f.

But the point here is not that, but that it this case we find form horses at the top of the AR ranking.
The next task is to sort out how "solid" the c/f or possible alternative in the 2nd c/f are. Here, I entirely agree with Guest that no clear bet emerges. But given these two, I would not, personally, be interested in trawling through the rest of the field in the hope that I may find something that might beat them both. Life is, literally, too short, and this approach may miss the odd good thing, but it is practicable.

Had neither Xenophon or Korelo been form horses, I'd have willingly worked my way through the next two sub-groups and, if necessary, on down the field in the hope of finding another Desert Hero. But, given that they are form horses, in my judgement there is no point.

Obviously, if one does work one's way right down the field before lighting upon the c/f, it will take the same time whether one starts with ARs or in-formness. But in many cases time can be saved by starting with ARs: in this case, the need to trouble with looking at the in-formness or otherwise of 28 horses, which would take me at least an hour.


Determined

Guest and I reached different conclusions, but I can assure you that it was a difference over exactly the same issue - the quality of Youlneverwalkalone's penultimate run. That was an issue for me, and made the bet an ordinary VDW one, rather than a really strong one like Spirit Leader. Guest obviously gave it even more significance. (And, at the risk of annoying Johnd, two contributors to this thread separately emailed me last night about Guest's passing over of Youl... And long before his post I speculated to them both that it would have been that 2nd last run, and perhaps particularly what Youl.. showed, or didn't show, in the last stages, that would have concerned him. I say this merely to emphasise how, with what Guest (and I) clearly see as the right approach, the same horses are being considered. The actual result was immaterial in the broad scheme of things: it is the approach that is important, not how fortunate one is in making judgements on very detailed issues of form.)

[This message was edited by Fulham on March 12, 2003 at 08:26 AM.]

Champion Chase

I agree that the top 3 on ability namely F.Pearl, F.Uberalles & E.Bleu are not form horses today.

I must admit however that given FU`s record at the course I had to think twice.

Top on ability of the remainder is M.Flyer who is in form and as Guest has already state is the class/form horse.

N.Upmanship, I agree is in form but I take the view that he like last year will not be quick enough over a trip short of his best. He is therefore passed over which brings in Tiutchev.

Mr Pipe seems to have rekindled his enthusiasm. In form, yes but what did he beat last time ? Nothing of todays class. I`m happy to pass him over also.

My 2nd on class/form = Cenkos. Many will say his last run was a downturn. I do not.

Summary - a very difficult race which I will not be playing in but I expect M.Flyer and Cenkos to have a right old tussle up the hill.

Cheers,

Fulham,

Thanks for your earlier comments.


A direct question if I may.

What do you consider the form horses in the Mildmay ?

A quick look suggests Fadalko is not but Lady Cricket and Fondmort are.

Cheers,

I get your point and very sensible I'd say. The problem is that you are still basing your selection process around the ability ratings and these are not showing any better success than would be expected from any random sampling.

Epiglotis

They are when matched with in-formness. I said in a recent post that I could not remember the last time what I regarded as a solid c/f (ie one strong enough to back) in a handicap lost - that remains true some days, and one bet, on. The c/f, when solid, is a truly potent force, and working in the way I've outlined is, thus far, the most practicable way I've found to get there.


Determined

The Mildmay is the race that interests me most today - my preference being for handicaps over non-handicaps, and chases over hurdles. I haven't even worked out the ARs yet, but will post later when I have.

Fulham

The horses rated 100 plus for the Mildmay =

206 Fadalko
195 Lady Cricket
189 Fondmort
158 Blowing Wind
133 Go Roger Go
127 Armaturk
126 Horus
125 Young Spartacus
111 Ballinclay King
110 Tresor De Mai

Epiglotis - Fulham beat me to it, but I was going to say that it is far quicker to work out the ARs for the field today than establish who the form horses are for the race today. Besides, you need to do these claculations in order to establish class and form in the ongoing manner I have been banging on about for some time now.

Fulham - I make Korelo on 310 and Xenophon on 284. Well done with your 7/1 winner yesterday by the way. As I said, I am a bit miffed that I failed to note the factors in the Arkle in their correct order as also to a lesser degree with Rooster Booster and Intersky Falcon. Sometimes a class race may have negatives in the opposition, but it is still a class race ie the Bula which is run at Cheltenham of course.