GUEST
You must have read the postings on here during the last two weeks, and hopefully understood the object of the exercise.
In view of this, would you kindly explain what you mean when you say Korelo is in form but not a form horse, ( At least, I think thats what you said)?

I afraid I have to jump on the bandwagon too. While I think we all agree that Korelo had enough negatives to make it a bad bet at the likely odds, it was the class/form horse. I can fully understand the rationale behind Guest's nomination of Tikram (the class in which a horse runs is not etc etc) as the class/form horse but he seems to have forgotten the basic reasoning behind the ability rating, which after all is what forms the "class" part of the class/form combination. The ability rating is based on winning form, not 3rd placed form.
regards,

Come on fella`s, just who is indulging who here ?

When VDW wrote about Wayward Lads 85 KG win and Righthand Mans Welsh National victory, he described the favourite in the former, Burrough Hill Lad, as "not a form horse in this race". In the latter race he said that "Righthand Man, Planetman and Kumbi were all "form" horses but Lucky Vane was not..". He did not say they were "out of form" as I recall.

Nobody looking at todays main race could have described Korelo as "out of form", but was he one of the "form" horses relative to todays class of race and opposition bearing in mind the race was a handicap?

The question of form is the one to try and answer or so said VDW and the only way to discover what he mean't by being a "form" horse is to closely examine his own selections and the horses he described as "form" horses.

Korelo showed good improvement at Ascot when stepped up in class and distance, but given a lower weight against Chopneyev. The class of race was the same today and the prevailing conditions would require stamina, but he was carrying a lot more physical weight. True, there was no Chopneyev in the race today and Mr Pipe is certainly one of the more adept trainers at knowing their weight carrying limitations, but in the main these type of scenarios spell doom as far as VDWs approach goes.

The 2nd on c/f Keltic Bard was withdrawn and the c/f Tikram had conditions against, but interesting that the ability ratings still stood up in their crudest form, as they did in the first 2 races on the card. Only one of these was a good bet in my view.

Mtoto

I think Guest's last post offers an answer to a question the two of us have long pondered - the Battlement/Move Off example - and suggests to me that Bream's suggestion that all VDW's selections were c/fs is right, at least as regards handicaps. If only we could sort out Swiss Maid/Cistus from the c/f point of view ...


Johnd

If Guest is right, as I expect he is, it could perhaps explain why there was no specific mention of weight in that important paragraph two down from the Little Owl table in the "Spells it all out" article: ie the assumption that weight had been properly factored in was, for VDW, implicit in a proper understanding of the class/form nexus.

Stats - a timely reminder as Cheltenham looms


- around 30% of the top 2 on ability win all races excepting maidens

- 70% of races are won by `form` horses the VDW way

*** both figures were highlighted by Guest in his post on 05/09/02 ( page 218 ); other very interesting stats were also produced in the same post.


Guest,

Are you prepared to volunteer how the figures perform at Cheltenham say over the past 3 - 5
years ?

Cheers,

[This message was edited by Determined on March 08, 2003 at 09:27 PM.]

Champion Hurdle - ability ratings ( rounded down )

371 Hors La Loi 111 OR = 159
297 Copeland 152
289 Landing Light 166
224 Scottish Memories 149
223 Like A Butterfly 148
216 Rooster Booster 167
207 Scolardy ?
196 Marble Arch 156
193 Intersky Falcon 162
124 R. Cowboy ?
121 In Contrast 146
115 Flame Creek 158

How many of the above are `form` horses ?

Guest,

Good to see you back, and with Cheltenham just round the corner hopefully some of your selections. Until you post again can I ask a question? Are you now saying BHL was in form, just not a form horse for that race. I ask because you appear to have made a case for him being out of form. The posting was on the 12 Nov. on page 283. If I have misunderstood the posting I apologise, but as I have previously stated I can't see how he was out of form. I would have eliminated him because other horses in the race, who were in form, were better suited to the track. This is what I mean about people spending hours trying to find out how he was out of form.

Also, as you think weight is important to the methods, I am a little puzzled how/why you made Tikram the c/form horse.

Fulham,

Sorry I must be a little slow on the up take re Battlement and Move Over. Hasn't Move Over proven he can carry the weight, and win early in the season? The only conclusion I have come up with is he may have been injured, and this was his come back race. He had missed the last 6 weeks of the previous season. I haven't got this form book so don't know about the going, B has won on heavy. If the going was heavy or soft he would have had an advantage, plus the weight difference. I am going to have to get these form books to put my mind to rest. (and check the s/f')

Be Lucky

Here are some figures relating to the performance of the ability ratings at the Cheltenham festival meetings only for 1999/2000 & 2002.

1999

Top 3/20
2nd 1/20
3rd 2/20
4th 1/20
5th+ 13/20

2000

Top 2/20
2nd 3/20
3rd 3/20
4th 2/20
5th+ 10/20

2002

Top 2/20
2nd 3/20
3rd 5/20
4th 0/20
5th+ 10/20

All 3 Meetings

Top 7/60
2nd 7/60
3rd 10/60
4th 3/60
5th+ 33/60

As Handicaps and Non Handicaps the figures break down as follows.

Hcps

Top 1/21
2nd 2/21
3rd 4/21
4th 0/21
5th+ 14/21

Non Hcps

Top 6/39
2nd 5/39
3rd 6/39
4th 3/39
5th+ 19/39

The sps were as follows.

Top rated 9/2, 4/9 , 7/2 , 8/15 , 5/4 , 11/2 , 13/8

2nd rated 11/4 , 8/1 , 7/2 , 11/2 , 7/4 , 7/4 , 25/1

3rd rated 16/1 , 16/1 , 7/1 , 16/1 , 9/2 , 12/1 , 25/1 , 14/1 , 6/1 , 2/1

Mtoto - The wording in my post you refer to is a little careless in hindsight. I should have phrased it that BHL had not shown "form" relative to the KG race in 2 of his last 3 runs.

As we all know, a horse can suddenly put in a "bad run" and often these horses are then rested before popping up again. BHL and Beacon Light both ran below expectations only very shortly before running in much better races where VDW had them as non form horses.

Guest,

As ever you are a true gentleman.

I`m sure I speak for all on this thread.

Have a great Cheltenham.

Cheers,

Mtoto,

I now have the 1977 Raceform annual and can let you have any info` you requrie.

** Move Off must have been an owners dream and what fun they must have had in 77.

All,

Move Off wins the Ebor in race 2741 carrying 8-01; race value £16620 having been backed from 12/1 into 9`s.

His next race 3392 at Ayr carrying 9-02 over 11 furlongs; race value £7620. Surely a winner in the race and is allowed to go off at 5/1.

Year 1978 - not happy with winning the Ebor in 77 he goes to take the 1978 OLD NEWTON CUP.

Well, well, well.

Move Off - Battlement - race 452 - year 1978

Similarities with Roushayd, ie - horses with the class of MO and R are hardly going to be ready first time out when their sights are clearly on the bigger prizes later on.

A £2443 prize at Thirsk in April carrying 10-00 on my seasonal debut wouldn`t have a great deal of interest to me.

In short VdW would have come to the conclusion that in the context of todays race ( prize not big enough ) MO was not considered a form horse ?

Cheers,

Guest,

I`m getting greedy.

Any chance of providing a further stat, ie - how many winners at Cheltenham were in the top 4 highest class runs last time ?

If I`m pushing my luck please tell me.

Cheers,

All,

Not having the flat formbooks for 1976 and earlier I am unable to work out the ability ratings for the Battlement - Move Off race.

Anybody prepared to help ?

Thank you kindly,

This Korelo in form but not in form relative to ........

and Burrough Hill Lad`s 2 of his last 3 runs are not relative .....

IS DOING MY BL..... HEAD IN !

Help !



Also, having re - read Fulham`s comments earlier are we now saying Move Off was a form horse and therefore 1st on class/form but given the circumstances, ie - first run after layoff and prize not big enough and an in form Battlement ( 2nd on class/form ? ) he was passed over for Battlement ?

GUEST

Korelo = Tikram

In your post yesterday you confirm Korelo was in form but NOT relative to todays class of race and opposition.

You later seem to be suggesting that the increase in actual weight Korelo has to carry ( 11-06 against 10-08 ) is the reason for him not to be a FORM horse for yesterday`s race.

With regards the class of opposition, Tikram`s last 2 PLACED efforts in class 580 ( 10-02 ) and class 696 ( 10-00 ) which I accept look better performances than Korelo`s win last time in class 290.

Yesterday Korelo was been asked to carry 12 lbs more in the same class as last time compared to Tikram`s 19 lbs more ( admittedly dropped in class ).

In my opinion Tikram was been asked to do far more than Korelo. Also, of the 2, which one was open to more improvement.

Whatever my thoughts, am I on the right lines as to why you discounted Korelo as a form horse yesterday, ie - BEEN ASKED TO CARRY MORE WEIGHT IN A RACE WHERE THERE WAS A CLASSIER ANIMAL NAMELY TIKRAM ( BASED ON ITS LAST PLACED EFFORT ) ?

*** hope I`ve made sense .

Cheers,

determined,

battlement - 7 wins, £8241, ar 12

move off - 8 wins, £41845, ar 52



move off was also giving 2 1/2 stone away to battlement

[This message was edited by Barney on March 09, 2003 at 08:14 AM.]

Mtoto

As far as I can see, Move Off was unproven with the weight he carried fto in 1978 - but annoyingly I can't find my 1975 Flat Form Book and cannot check the weight he carried in his Hamilton win that year. It is unusual for a 2yo to win with 10.00st, but not, I suppose, out if the question.


Determined

I would until recently have seen things very much as you describe. However (assuming I'm right in thinking Move Off was unproven with 10.00st), I now view Battlement as the c/f, on the same reasoning as (I think!) Guest applied to yesterday's Imperial Cup.

NB I'm not sure that in the final analysis it matters as regards bets. For one could take the view that both Move Off and Korelo were the c/fs but surely neither could be backed, from a VDW perspective, ON THE KNOWN FORM when considered alongside Battlement and Tikram respectively? Battlement, even if viewed as 2nd c/f, had everything going for him and was a decent bet even if viewed as 2nd c/f, whereas personally I couldn't see Tikram as a serious possibility yesterday whether c/f or 2nd c/f.

Determined

What you have also failed to note is that Move Off won the very same race the previous year first time out humping top weight.