Counsel's Opinion.

Max.

I do hope you are wrong. He is my main bet today.

Be Lucky

Swish

Thank you. I will search the board for your postings.

For what its worth I like you feel CO has a hell of alot of plus`.

My only concern is the heavy support for the Fanshawe runner.

Good luck, not that you need it,

Cheers,

Just a quick line to say that in my view Scotts View is the class/form horse and should win today. It wasn't entirely unexpected to see Court Shareef win under those conditions, but today is different.

In the 4.00 the unexposed method gives Faithful Warrior who is the class/form horse and the consistency method shows True Night who is second on class/form. A book in this race will do just the ticket.

You have just made my day.

Cheers,

Swish


Please to say Naahy won well 15/8 fav.

Guest

The 3.30 Chester today posed (for me, at any rate) a number of tricky issues re the identification of the form horses.

My tentative conclusion is that there are five among the first six in the Post's betting forecast. I'd be most interested in your conclusion on this matter. (I certainly agree re the c/f.)

Regards.

I read your post re: NAAHY.
Then I looked the form and SPEED FIGS up and decided it was nailed on and backed it accordingly. So I want to say thankyou for that.
I was playing poker all last night and had no time to look at handicaps.
I realise its a bit late now, but I see Mtoto has posted COUNSELS OPINION in 3.45 Sandown.
I have looked that up too and it IS A BET,
Swish

Councils Opinion 3rd e/w @ 8/1

Here's a thought that has done well today.

1. Judge horses with best VDW Form, add up last 3 figs.

2. Speed Figure =

(Best TS distance/ todays distance) * (Best TS prize money/1000) * (Best TS)

I backed COUNSELS OPINION e/way at 10-1, so that will do.(Thanks Mtoto).

I must say this though, (again as I have said many times before). ADDING UP FORM FIGURES IS ABSOLUTE COMPLETE AND UTTER BOLLOCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yours
Swish

Hear here.
And in my opinion you can say the same for prize money but I guess there's a danger of covering old ground even if it is with new members.

Swish - Its replies like that that stop people making contributions to the board. You do not know it all - nobody does. Grow Up.

Over 70% of winners have decent resultant form figures. Every now and then you will get a good winner where form is an illusion.

As a writer your response is definitely without eloquence.

epiglotis - As for prize money, it is a good measure of class and mentioned here as it relates to VDW.

If you are looking for horses dropped from an unreasonably high class you would surely expect them to have not been conspicuously successful in that higher class. On the other hand horses optimistically rising in class are likely to have been successful in their previous class. In short if adopting this strategy one could do worse than by starting out looking for poorish figures.

I accept that many people take the view that class can be expressed in some linear fashion related to prize money. I, however, have not found a useful place for this concept in my selection procedure so I prefer to do without what I consider to be excess baggage.

epiglottis - Agreed; especially so in handicaps of 13 or more runners.

And each to there own.

Have you mentioned elsewhere how you evaluate class? A pointer would be helpful.

There ya go Swish a civil reply, try it sometime.

I'm not actually a proponent of VDW (one of the "troublemakers" in fact) so I dont consider "class" in the same sense that most of the posters on this thread seem to. I dont use speed figures either, I just try to employ a common sense approach.

Epiglottis - ok; so are you just vague or do you actually have a process of determining class that you can share with us? (Apart from excess baggage of course)

As I said, I dont think class in the VDW sense is important, so, I dont determine it.
Re-reading my post, I guess I didn't say that but I have now.

Determined.

Hope it was more than Guest that made your day today. That's the second time you've liked a horse, only for it to win the next time out. I really do hope you where on.

Guest

Today is exactly what I mean about not being consistent. I know it is a method not a system. but how are people ever going to agree on selections if opinions comes into it? You were prepared to forgive SV his bad run because of conditions, so why not BL? I didn't really have that problem as I didn't make either of them good enough.

Swish.

You don't have to thank me, I would like to think we helped each other. If it wasn't for you I wouldn't be looking at non handicaps. Without a 4/1 winner today I would have had a poor week, it may have been bread and scrape, without any jam.

Nessie

Good to see some new blood on the thread, not literally. Don't worry about Swish, he is just very definite with his views. His heart is in the right place and his bark is worse than his bite!

Epiglotis.

If you don't use s/f or penalty value to judge class, can I ask you the same question I asked Barney. What do you use? or is it OR's? I can't see how anyone can hope to win unless they use some way of measuring class.

Oh Guest, today I made True Night the c/form horse in the race (before the vdw filters) I still can't bring myself to back a 78 rated horse in a 100 grade race.

Be Lucky

I dont consider a horse to have a particular degree of class, I want to know how the horses in a given race compare with each other. To an extent I care about the grade in which each horse has performed but I dont draw conclusions from this as to which is/are the class horse/s.