Boozer,

There are many questions I would need to ask before I could give you a proper answer, however, I am aware of why you’ve asked the question and would answer it by saying the following.

The method put forward by VDW has several factors that not only take a great deal of time to uncover but also take time (or it did for me) to understand and put in to practice. These factors have much to do with the quality of competition a horse has previously faced, at what level it met them, and of course under what conditions.

It’s all very logical really when one thinks about it, but a great deal of time and dedication is required to see through the task every day, hence the last part of his equation, and hence the need for a great deal of temperament. It’s no good having a bet to justify the amount of work that has gone in when clearly the selection is lacking in chance.

That said, personally no matter how hard I try I still end up at the end of the month looking back at bets I know I shouldn’t have made, and this is not just with the benefit of hindsight I can assure you!

The problem is we are always going to be faced with a possible selection that we think should win, leave well alone, and watch them come in, which is always going to have an adverse effect on your future decision making. I’ve come to the conclusion that anyone that doesn’t have this problem must be following a system rather than employing a method!

Mtoto

Thanks. The best thing, from my perspective, about the last few days is that they have passed.

Thanks, also, for naming the three examples. I'll respond shortly.

CROCK
I don't think anyone said that VDW ignored weight, just that it wasn't a basic part of his method.
Perhaps you could explain why, when he spelt it all out, he never even mentioned weight. Either you believe he spelt it all out, as I most certainly do, or you devise your own method, with add-ons and codicils to make the pieces fit.

ABILITY RATINGS
The 2nd race at Sandown tomorrow is a donkey derby worth £29k. One of the donkeys will win this race and will then have a/r completely out of proportion to its real ability.
Eventually, another horse will beat this donkey, then that will also earn a totally undeserved reputation. Hardly a logical scenario!

Mr Moto

Zamandra is of course running in a non-handicap. Regarding Canny Danny if you look up his 3rd previous run (2601)when he carried 11.10 you will see he is more than capable of winning the race in question.

With regard to Sunset Christo, don't forget in those days races were subject to overnite weight increases, as was the case here with a massive overnite hike of 15lb, lifting his weight from 10.7 to 11st.8lb. Don't overlook the fact that *all* the runners in the race were subject to the same rise also. Thats why all calculations have to be relative.

Hi JohnD,

Perhaps you could explain why, if you most certainly believe he spelt it all out, do you choose to ignore the Ability Rating, one of the main factors within the article? It would appear to me that you are guilty of exactly what you are accusing Crock of, devising your own method?

John D,

No, I don't believe everything was 'spelt out' in the article you refer. Hinted at yes, spelt out in the way I think you mean, then no.

VDW constantly tried to emphasise his formula:
Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard work.

It is my belief that weight is a very big part of capability.

Let me turn the question round to you, in the article you refer to, then to the best of my recollection (speaking from memory) VDW never openly referred to suitabilty of race distance considerations. Do you think that this element has no place in the analysis. If a horse had shown all it's winning form at 6f then would you back it at 10f?

Mtoto

I was on the point of responding substantively to you re Sunset Cristo etc when I saw Mr Ed's post, which is essentially what I would have said. The only point I would make in addition is that, like Canny Danny, Sunset Cristo had proved his ability to carry the weight.

VDW's approach to weight is not simple but, insofar as I understand it, I believe it to be fundamentally consistent and logical. In that sense, I see it as like his approach to assessing in-formness: if one finds an example that doesn't seem to work, it is because one has not yet adequately understood the approach.

I know that I don't yet fully understand VDW's approach, either to weight or in-formness, but I know enough to believe that what I don't yet understand is down to my inadequacies rather than inconsistency on VDW's part. Whoever he was, VDW was a man (or woman?) of very high capability, whose ingenuity and subtlety of approach affords an intellectual treat to try to discover, over and above the tangible benefits one gets through making progress.

What is the difference between a 15lb overnight hike because 2 horses rated 15lb higher have been withdrawn

Than putting Sunset Christo in a 15lbs lower class race

None

0-75 handicap

withdraw the top 2 horse rated 75 and say 65
the next horse down rated 60 now carries top weight
and all move up in proportion

Now its a 0-60 handicap
A seller?

[This message was edited by boozer on March 07, 2003 at 08:22 PM.]

Imperial Cup

1st five in the betting (9 horses)

Korelo
OR increase of 13, Actual weight increase of 12lb. CLASS/FORM but 9/4 looks too short.

Hawadeth
Good placed efforts last twice, gone from 118 to 125, will stay on late and should be placed
again. FORM HORSE

Talarive
Gone from 109 - 115 for placed efforts, just feel this one is a bit outclassed NOT A FORM HORSE

Keltic Bard
Opposition faced in win of 25th Jan doesn't look
too strong, fell LTO, NOT A FORM HORSE.

Janidou
Travels well but doesn't find a lot, NOT A FORM HORSE

Reviewer
Improving with each run, may prefer good, NOT A FORM HORSE

True Blue Victory
Beat Addamant Aproach in a 15k race 1/12/01, then won a 13k race, then off for a year, back to form LTO with a good win FORM HORSE

Dancing Bay
1st run in a h'cap, not sure on this one.

Tikram
Usually runs to a place in the big h'caps off around 10 stone, carries 11-12 (7lb) this time,
gone from 124 to 134 for placed efforts, NOT A FORM HORSE FOR THIS RACE

Any comments on the above plus any thoughts on the outsiders ?

I am backing True Blue Victory - hopefully around the 16/1 mark may be available early prices.

Boozer

From a VDW perspective, the notion of a "15lb lower class race" has no useful meaning.

The point about Sunset Cristo is that, for the race in question, he was the c/f (explicitly stated as such by VDW) running under conditions, including weight, which were suitable. Whether he would or would not have been the c/f, or a bet, in another race - actual or hypothetical - cannot usefully be conjectured without full details, as class and form must always be considered relative to the actual circumstances prevailing including, of course, the opposition.

LEE
I don't ignore ability ratings, I do think that they are outdated for reasons that I have made plain.
CROCK
Quote from S.I.A.O.
"The whole concept was explained//calculating consistent horses, ability ratings, and everything else, provided you read what was there".
There is no diplomatic way to call him a liar, either you believe the above statement or you don't!
In answer to your other question, "The course they ran over" embraces the distance.
FULHAM
VDW, (IMO), wasn't Agatha Christie, just someone with an inordinate amount of common sense, which is why his work is such a problem to those who refuse to approach it from the same angle.
ANDREW
Thanks for that, will reply later.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Fulham:
Boozer

From a VDW perspective, the notion of a "15lb lower class race" has no useful meaning.

VDW perspective or not
These are the official conditions weight wise that horses have to race under in a Hcp
Not VDW perception

Johnd

We'll have to agree to disagree on your point - as on much else.


Boozer

The weight a horse is scheduled to carry in a handicap tells us nothing, in itself, about the class of the race, the ability (from a VDW perspective) of a horse or its competitors or in-formness, but it is relevant in assessing whether a class/form horse is "solid".

The reason why VDW saw handicaps as offering profitable betting situations is that his approach sufficiently often threw up "good things" which, from the conventional viewpoint, had no better chance than plenty of the other runners. And, because of the conventional wisdom that larger field handicaps are "highly competitive", the odds made (and still make) the bets very profitable.

Next week may, from this perspective, offer some interesting opportunities which, especially during the NH season, are most often confined to Fridays and Saturdays.

I give up
You would make a good jehovas witness

IMPERIAL CUP - SATURDAY

TIKRAM
Lto form is the best form in the race, and by some way, ( Btn 5l, cl 690, 0-157) The problem is the heavy going on which he has disappointed on twice already this season.In form.
JANIDOU
Ostensibly out of form, but needed the same 3 runs last season before showing much improvement when btn 3l in a cl 480. On that evidence, not one I would discount.
HAWADETH
Btn 8l, cl 406, 0-148, penultimate run. Lto found Kemptons 2m & good ground insufficient test, & got going to late. Even with this stiffer test, would probably need a good pace. In form.
KORELO
Won cl 290 0-132 lto, from Chopneyev, who had previously won a similar class race, pair 12l clear of 3rd. In form, but needs to improve a lot to win this.
TALARIVE/ KELTIC BARD/ REVIEWER
In form but, (IMO) not good enough.
No bet for me, but good luck to those who do.

Whilst I don't want to get too involved before Cheltenham starts, I would like to make a few points on recent posts.

John D - You say the 2nd race at Sandown tomorrow is full of donkeys despite the class rating of 290. If you apply the same thinking to the equivalent race last year, would you describe the 6th horse, Intersky Falcon, as a donkey?

The issue of the ability and class ratings and their uses is still being confused by those unsure of how VDW equated class and form together.

In the Imperial Cup for Saturday, the class/form horse is Tikram with Keltic Bard 2nd on class/form. Given the conditions, including the ground, it would be reasonable to expect Keltic Bard to be much more likely to prevail than Tikram.

Janidou does have some useful form in the past, though he hasn't won for over 2 years and once again promised more than he delivered when dropped in class last time.

Anyway, I'll be posting more thoughts as intended on Tuesday.

Imperial Cup,

Early thoughts.

Taking into account the apprentice allowances we are looking at a handicap with only a 16 lbs weight spread.

Also, I note Tikram carried 10-06 in the race last year finishing 6th ( OR = 128 ) yet carries top weight tomorrow off OR = 134. Clearly a sub standard event this year ?

Korelo is top on ability and is in form therefore is 1st on class / form. That said, he carries 12 lbs more weight off a 13 lbs higher OR. As Johnd has already stated he`ll have to improve again tomorrow to take the prize. Mind you the same trainer delivered with Polar Red last year off a 22 lbs higher OR so it can be done.

True Blue Victory ( the selection of Andrew ) is the 2nd rated on ability and has winning form last time albeit in race class value £8441. Can he be considered a form horse in the context of tomorrow`s race ?

Tikram, 3rd on ability and clearly a form horse but like Johnd conditions will not be in his favour.

I was obviously posting at the same time as Guest ( welcome back ) so I was unaware of his comments.

Korelo is not a form horse according to Guest so its back to the drawing board for me.

True Blue Victory, like wise is not in form but I think I understand that one.

Guest,

A question if I may. Is the fact that Korelo does not have winning h`cap from over tomorrow`s distance the deciding factor to his in formness ?

GUEST
Hiya, good to see you back.
You really had to dig to find Intersky Falcon; like you,he didn't stay.
The first 3 from the same race last year have since mustered 1 class D win between them, and the highest O.R. since a dizzy 123. Brilliant advert for ability ratings, wasn't it?

Fulham,

This started when I respond to the quotes printed below....

{This suggests that additional weight even in proportion is something undesirable. A study of the situation will reveal that the majority of horses falter when shouldering above a certain weight even though it may be in direct handicap proportion}

{Horses have INDIVIDUAL weight limits beyond which THEY do not perform. If a horse is set to carry more than they have previously performed well with, it is reasonable to assume that the day will not be theirs, irrespective of other factors.}

I know the weights were raised for the Sunset Cristo race, so did VDW. That doesn't change the fact that SC had to carry 10lb more and a large amount of dead weight. We then look at as you say SC had performed with a similar weight in the past. As VDW has instructed us to look at the pace and class, etc. of previous races. Do we just except that because a horse has carried a big weight in a lower class race he can do it in a higher class? I don't think VDW did, as Mr e d has pointed out Canny Danny carried 12st in a lower class and he didn't go with him when raised in class and carrying 11st 11lbs. An increase of only 3 lbs from his last race.

In all this I am only looking at the actual weight, as VDW says they have a limit over which they can't perform.

Lee,

As I have stated before I started with Systematic Betting. No mention of ability ratings there, so the only thing I wasn't happy with was using Penalty value to judge class. This came about by looking at a couple of races were the prize money was far higher for a C90 special race. On the same card there was a 105 race worth far less to the winner. Of hand I think there were about 6 horses in the second race that couldn't run in the first. How in the name of logic could the second race be of lower class? I used the Roushayd method (or how I thought it worked) for a couple of years to make my living. I then joined a forum out of interest to find out about the other methods. I had read about them when they were printed in the 70's, but because of work I hadn't studied them. This is when the fun started, I was doing it all wrong!! So I tried to understand how others thought they worked. I couldn't make any real sense of it until I applied my ideas of how the Roushayd method worked. Hay Presto, then most of the examples fell into place. I except there are some I can't make work, but these are the same ones I can't make the c/form method work. Although I can't make Barnet work c/form, it did fall straight in the other way.

Be Lucky