Arrowson if your looking in i`d be interested in your view of the imperial cup tomorrow, i have janidou & under the sand as best in, although lacking a little in class dept.

Mtoto

I'm sure you are right, and that VDW didn't assume that, because a horse had successfully carried a big weight in a lower class race, it could therefore win with the same weight in a higher class one.

Rather, I suggest that VDW would have thought about things thus. Sunset Cristo is the class/form horse and, under the prevailing conditions (including relative weight), he has the beating of the field. Is the actual weight be carried potentially a negative factor (ie in the light of concerns about horses having individual weight limits and concerns about dead weight)? No, SC has already shown he can carry this amount of weight successfully.

In other words, if I'm right, in handicaps VDW was interested in both relative weight (in the class/form context) and actual weight. Entirely hypothetically, if the weights for the SC race had been raised 29lb rather than 19lb, VDW would have had no concerns relatively (the increase applying to all). He would, however, have considered whether SC was likely to be able successfully to carry 12st 3. And relevant considerations would, in my view, have been how near 12st 3 was the highest weight SC had successfully carried, and how much in hand (from a class/form perspective) did VDW judge SC as having on the field. (In this context, consider Guest's comment re Spirit Leader, in respect of SL's penultimate win.)

The forecast favourites in the 4.05 Ayr and 4.15 Warwick look worth taking on - probably with Zamat and last years winner Oddlydodd.

The ground has now gone heavy from soft at Sandown - this is a negative for True Blue Victory. I am going to go with the horse I wasn't sure about last night, Dancing Bay.

keltic baird is a non runner

Determined

I, too, am inclined to see Korelo as the class/form horse, although prompted by Guest's post I can see reasons to question this judgement.

Nevertheless, on the Form Book Korelo would not be a solid c/f, weight being a factor.

All that said, David Lyons (whom I regard as being genuinely well informed, and who gave Korelo lto) says he was only 85% fit lto and is now fully fit and confidently expected.

I'm off to Corals to get as much on at 11/4 as can be managed, and will be content with a large arb. on this one at between 0.25 and 0.5.


ps

Having now been to Corals, whom I find the most restrictive of the majors re taking money at the guaranteed early prices, I would report that they seem to have taken a very strong decision to stand Korelo at 11/4. I was able to place as much as I wanted, and on the staff computer screen for the race there was no "warning" to restrict bets or refer to head office.

Finally, my experience to date is that VDW nearly always beats "inside info". If Korelo was a strong c/f (which he certainly isn't) AND Lyons was saying he was expected, I would back him even at 11/4. But with question-marks VDW-wise, I'm not prepared to risk money, though an arb. with a reasonable margin is of course always worthwhile.

[This message was edited by Fulham on March 08, 2003 at 10:17 AM.]

I see Sporting Odds have gone out on their own and pushed True Blue Victory out to 25/1 - that looks a big price.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Lee - Thank you for your reply. I've printed it off and will give it some serious thought. I hope it helps too!

All the best
hedgehog

Hi all,
Sometimes you can go through a race and feel okay about it and then you read everybody elses postings and finish up totally confused.
However I will press on regardless.
On this ground today the 2 miles will seem like 2m 4f., so you are looking for one that will stay.
Of the consistent horses (of which I have 8), I have tried to narrow it down.
Korelo, has obviously been laid out for this in the hope that he can pick up the £60,000 bonus at Cheltenham next week. He needed all the 2m 4f lto and will stay today in ground that suits.
Dancing Bay won over 2m 5f lto in testing ground and reverts back to his best trip today on ground he likes.
Talarive only just lost out in a 2m 2f Grade 2 nov hdle lto and has only won on heavy so there are no problems here for him.
Hawadeth seems to be a nearly horse who has to have everything right on the day for him. Will handle the ground and the trip if he stays out of trouble.
At the price Korelo is now, you couldn't back him, although he is the probable winner in the race.
For a bit of value I would nominate Dancing Bay and Talarive.
See you soon, Mike.

I like the look of Ibal, i just wish they would stop messing with his trip, they seem to be really trying to find out this horses limitations.

he passes the numerical picture picture easily and last time he defied probability to win.

montreal ran really close to la landier, 15 1/2 lgth last time, at his first run in handicaps, and gives the form a solid look.

Hi,

Imperial Cup Sandown,

Interesting I make Tikram the BEST HORSE in the race. This has nothing to do with OR's. I see Johnd, and Guest also come up with him, all three of us coming from a different direction. I have to agree the going and course are against him. Could someone tell me who is top on the ability rating?

Of the other consistent horses I make Korelo the next best horse. I fail to see how he can be judged as out of form. I think there is a big difference between not being suited by conditions, and out of form. The track will suit, and I am not worried by the distance. The only thing that stops me backing him is the price.

The other highly rated horse Talarive, is passed over because his best form is in a novice. His strike rate is poor, and there are worries about the going, and course.

I think this is a poor race and as Johnd says the winner will inflate his ability rating by a flattering margin.

There is only one other horse I have looked at seriously Odagh Odyssey in the 3:40. I'm not sure about the distance, so I will leave it. (unless the price is over generous)

Be Lucky

Determined/Mtoto - With regards to Korelo and the term "form", you have to accept that VDW held the strong view that his idea of what constituted "form" was at a large variance to the majority.

VDW did describe some horses as "form" horses and also some horses as "not a form horse". He didn't refer to the latter group as "out of form" which is something different.

Mtoto,

Korelo is top on the ability rating by some way and his form last time when beating the improving Chopneyev is just about the best form in the race.

I agree Tikram, the 2nd rated on ability of the form horses has an excellent run last time to his name but as you and several others have stated the conditions today will not be in his favour.

Korelo for me will have the stamina required for the this slog today. Is clearly improving, will act on the going better than most and in my opinion will win but I think we all agree the price isn`t value.

Good luck all today,

Walter, I am greatly flattered that you should ask my opnion, especially with all the excellent posts made on this race.

My reading is:-

Ability Rating:

Newhall 180 (not in first 6 of the betting)
Korelo 165
True Blue Victory 98
Tikram 90
Dancing Bay 55
Janidou 50

Consistency (within the first 6 in the betting):-

Korelo 6
Dancing Bay 6
Talarive 7
Hawadeth 10
Janidou 19
Canada 4

Probability:-

Korelo has never won carrying more than 10-12. I think the ground will also be against.

Talarive is carrying 13lbs actual less than last race.

Tikram - going not likely to suit

Janidou - Guest has covered this and I agree

So my 'most likely' are Hawadeth, Dancing Bay and Talarive, but no bet.

Tikram

This horse has shown form on soft and heavy but everyone keeps saying the ground will not suit. My negative with this horse is the actual weight carried toady - even so he is now 33/1 with Sporting Odds - probably worth an e/w investment at that price.

Barney
Nice confident post,Well done mate.

thanks for the reply arrowson

Korelo

£69000 highly competitive Handicap

Weight???

Bah

Double bah

[This message was edited by boozer on March 08, 2003 at 03:40 PM.]

Sorry
£29000 highly competitive Handicap

All,

In my earlier post I should have stated that Korelo was top on ability of the `form` horses.

Top on overall ability was Newhall as Arowson pointed out.

The run of Newhall perhaps shows the ability rating does have some credibility.



Guest,

Your latest comment on `form` is yet another which leaves me scratching my head.


Cheers,

Determined

If you really want to "crack" VDW's approach, don't allow yourself to be persuaded by others (who have either never tried, or have failed, to "crack" it) that the ability rating is useless or now out-dated. It was always an important part of VDW's approach for NH and older Flat horses, even when not mentioned and, when coupled with competence in assessing "in-formness" and a proper appreciation of factors such as weight, it delivers time and time again. Indeed, I cannot personally remember the last time I analysed a high value handicap like today's and found a c/f with rock solid claims (ie good CONSISTENT form, running under appropriate conditions of weight, etc) that lost.

Guest's post re not being a form horse not meaning that a horse is out of form is substantial, not semantic, and a timely reminder to the likes of me not to slip into sloppy ways of writing (and therefore, potentially, of thinking).