Ive always wondered why G.Hall was able to grasp the basics of vdw so quickly, haven`t you?, look he aquainted himself with vdw`s workings at a very early stage , why was this the case?.

maybe he was good at reading the small print on the ticket

To quote a good friend of mine from sedbergh "Back in january 1995 i wrote to raceform update and stated that their readers page was beginning "to resemble my old algebra teacher`s blotting paper". I made the point to illustrate how the paper`s rocket scientists had seemingly taken over, and to tell the truth judging by recent issues not much has changed since.Still letter after letter flood in with such digestible titbits as "1/5 second =1 length =nlb.where n is the number off pounds equivalent to 1 length at a given distance " or "at this standard time , a 15lb per second conversion is correct i.e. 15 + 0.4 = 37.5mph.

Now i love horseracing and im interested in all its facets including speed figures , sectional timings and ratings, but at times i find it difficult to believe that we are talking about the same flesh & blood animals that rely on breeding, instict and training to produce optimal performances and again these same animals that are ridden by flesh & blood humans who however professional in their outlook are prone to human error and all the form figures, ratings & tipsters , mph and lbs per square caterpillar disappear out of the window if either has an off day. Believe me there are still some people out there that think dancing brave did win the derby because of course according to the figures he couldn`t lose!.
To illustrate the point lets have a race over newmarkets rowley mile with perfect clones of all the great 2,000 guinea`s winners, now all our time experts would be ignoring tudor minstrel who won the race by 8 lenghths and they would give nijinsky , dancing brave , nashwan, and brigadier gerard a miss and lump on, wait for it ..... mister baileys, at huge odds for the simple reason that he holds the fastest time at 1 min 35.08sec.

Me i think that the brigadier could fall out the stalls munch a little of the young spring grass, have his off shoe replaced and still beat the vastly inferior mister baileys doing handsprings , pulling a truck and working out his new stud fees .My advice is bin the slide rule and keep life simple, the kind of person who uses figures down to 1000th of a second would be better off studying motor racing a sport where watering patterns have little effect and where they don`t often change the position of the track without telling everyone or find that due to human error they`ve missed out a hundred yards or so.
After lunchtime at the course & seafood prawns
Leaving Ascot at about 4.00pm before the traffic i was left wondering how the horse in question had managed to win when she was so hopelessly out classed by silver rhapsody on form ( postmark 125 against 117) and speed ( topspeed 121 against 109) and completely ignored by all the tipsters in the ascot selection box.Now where was silver rhapsody ? let me see, 13 or 14 lenghts back , how many seconds is that over 1m4f and where are my conversion tables? oh god what was the wind speed? and was the going really 0.31 sec per furlong".

[This message was edited by walter pigeon on October 15, 2002 at 12:49 AM.]

[This message was edited by walter pigeon on October 15, 2002 at 12:57 AM.]

The reason why G Hall was able to identify "The Key" must have been because it was simple in the first place!
"Once you find, it everything will be so clear, you will wonder how on earth you could miss it, and you will have the same horses as myself", hardly smacks of rocket science, does it?

.

[This message was edited by walter pigeon on October 15, 2002 at 02:15 AM.]

hi statajack.

Collier Hill is consistent, improving, a course and distance winner, will act on the ground and in my opinion has the form and class to win this race.

Whilst he`ll act on soft if the going becomes very testing the race will be left alone.

Cheers,

With you on Collier Hill, but Vicious Prince is also improving, and although beaten fair and square by CH lto, he didn't have his ground.
Maybe a dutch on all three is the answer for me; at forecast prices it's around 6/4 the three, but I can't really see beyond these three.
Sun Bird looks to be one hell of a price, but temperament will probably rule the day.
Good luck.

sun bird is clearly the class act in this race,

if I remember correctly before the ONC sunbird ran over a mile to hide the form of his previous win carrying 10-00.

with this in mind it leads me to believe that his newbury run, which was pretty impresive considering the wrong trip, was setting him up for the hamilton race, so the trainer does appear to want another win. Although in past seasons he has shown that his distance requirement does fluctuate at the end of season probably down to the ground, I think thats why he tried the shorter trip at newbury. I think he will take some stopping on good/ good soft.

If the forecast rain arrives then the going at Ayr will be bottomless.

Johnd, like you I agree Vicious Prince has a progressive profile and he`ll love the soft ground. Has to be a very live danger to CH.

Also, the Ed Dunlop runner will not feature using the VDW method` but in my opinion this one will show significant improvement today and also worries me.

With respect, I cannot have Sun Bird and my 3 against the field have to be Collier Hill, Vicious Prince and Factor Fifteen.

My initial thoughts are a win bet on CH plus the 3 x short listed horses in combination f/`c`s.

Cheers,

how are you? not seen you for a few days.

did you have zingari, he seemed a lot easier to find than last time.

Walter Pigeon - The hypothetical Guineas winners race is a good example of why speed alone is no use, though in my opinion the in bred flat horse is a faster animal in general these days at the top end of the scale though possibly not as resiliant.

As to G.Hall, well he was obviously quicker on the ball than a lot of us though it is far from clear he had it totally sorted. After all, placing a yankee at that stage smacks of not using the staking method at all. Of course we never heard of him again, but who knows maybe he went the whole way eventually.

Determined/JohnD - Whilst there is a lot in Colliers Hills favour today, the race has a very competetive look to it on the class front. The other method shows the vast majority with form above this class at some stage. Just for info purposes the initial horses to look at using the other method are Sun Bird,Octane,Collier Hill and Vicious prince but as I say the race is too hot especially for the prize on offer.

Barney - well done by the way with Dr Cool, you certainly had a better day than myself.

Yes I did back Zingari again and a nice price too. Hopefully Newmarket will show up some good bets.

hello again,

i know its hard not to go into specifics but I have octane as targeted lto and scrubbed him, did VDW give us an example where this type prevailed.

Walter,
Ive just seen your message this morning, I was just looking in on the board before turning in last night- sorry if you thought I ignored you. I dont have the time to post long detailed messages re vdw or often even to look at the form at the moment but its an interesting avenue you are starting to explore.

Regarding the Ayr race today, I would use it to increase my temperament skills.

Guest,
Am I detecting an ever so subtle change in your position re G. Hall, not too far perhaps but slightly...?

regards to all,

Determined

You were a little concerned about the going becoming heavy at Ayr today. Looking at the radar picture this morning it seems unlikely that rain will affect Ayrshire today, so the going should remain good/soft.

Rob

Both Guest and Statajack say the race is too competitive and temperament should be the order of the day.

I cannot argue with their thoughts when one looks at the shape of the race however I believe this is a case of exposed form ( the majority ) against 3 improvers namely CH, VP and FF.

*** I note FF has been a warm order in the exchanges this morning which confirms the expected improvement I anticpate today ***

Whilst I totally respect both Guest and Statajack`s point of view I`m confident the winner will come from the 3 I`ve shortlisted.

Good luck today,

Cheers,

Just seen your last post. Thanks.

I will not be placing any monies until I`ve watched a couple of the early races but thanks again.

Cheers,

statajack it should be me who apologises im far too boisterous when under the influence, sorry oh my poor head! that`ll teach me.

Is anybody feeling groovy?

I make it c/f