Hanabad,apparently choked a furlong out yesterday,hard to know really, connections may use it as an excuse,may be thinking of stallion fees in the future wasn't a bet at 1/2 or at 4/6 for that matter.
Today is bleak,Starzaan 2/1 for a place on Betfair,four places,any one tempted?
Welcome back Determined hope you had a nice holiday.

I get zindari at that price.

but threats from cape wind and tusk, but vdw said we should get on these and thats what i will be doing.(again)

this looks a good thing to me

Purely on VDW basic principles Zingari looks the one to be on in the 3.10, but he is poorly drawn in stall 6 (very few single figure draws win over 1m here in handicaps) and there must be a degree of stamina doubt in the conditions. I'd throw out Red Chief and Cape Wind on draw. Shelini is well drawn and should be suited by the conditions, but it's a race to pass on as far as a bet is concerned.

I had a closer look at 2 races

Ayr 2.50
Can't split Murzim and Littlemissattitude. Strongest conclusion I came to here is that there is no Zelea should be 3rd favourite!

Ayr 3.50
Samhari should win if fit, but is an awfully short price considering the lay-off. Grizedale should take the race if Samhari is not sharp enough.

Otherwise the day's racing has a right old end of season feel to it, as has the weather!!

Rob

Well I was wrong about Zingari. It looked a decent performance to me, she just keeps producing the goods in true Prescott style. Shelini did well to finish 3rd having run on her own up the near rail.

Zelea proved me wrong by finishing 3rd at Ayr, but I got the first two right!

Rob

I think he gave her the best chance to get the trip, pretty easy windsor.

Pardon me for monopolising this thread this afternoon but I wonder if anyone could tell me when the idea of using Last Race Class was first introduced. Was it from VDW, or was it one of his disciples? Marchwood's articles mention it in referring to Charlie Anderson. I re-read 'The Golden Years" and "Systematic Betting" over the weekend but Last Race Class only gets a mention in the 'Roushayd' chapter.

I was a regular reader of The Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book when VDW's writings first appeared, and I must admit that I din't pay an awful lot of attention to them. I was into speed figures and trainers' patterns at the time and VDW only briefly covered the former. In later years though I developed my way of using class figures in anlysing recent runs. It served me well and so I came back to VDWs articles and discussions to see if I could further develop the ideas.

One problem I have is that there are a few widely touted VDW selections that I wouldn't have touched with a barge pole, Prominent King and Rifle Brigade are two that spring to mind. I suppose it's down to individual interpretation, which is a fair way of why this thread has now reached 260 pages. You could get a pretty informative book out of the best contributions in this thread!


Rob

Barney

I think you are probably right re Zingari, held up about 6 lengths of the pace and showing good acceleration from 2 out, as at Catterick. I ought to know that Windsor is an easy course, I've been there many times as it's only 50 minutes drive away!

Rob

its in lots of examples

Barney

But when was it first mentioned? It's not mentioned in "The Golden Years Of Van Der Wheil" which I have read, which covers 1979 to 1982, so must have appeared later. On the other hand it's a factor I've always associated with VDW, so I was curious as to when it was introduced. Personally I think it's a good measure, although perhaps an average of the last three runs even more so.

Rob

its not, but generally

when you identify the horse with the highest ability rating and then add the form figures you are getting near to this when all things are balanced.but as you know its not that easy

Hi Rob,

If my memory serves me the class rating was introduced in 1988 under the title "The myth of the missing link" I think this was when he first showed the rating and how to apply it he used the 1988 Mackeson Gold Cup Chase as an example. Again I believe it was first published in the "Making racing pay" seris by Peach, but can now be found in "Betting the VDW way" booklet. The Roushayd example I believe was first given in the "Systematic betting" book published I think in 1989.

Cheers

M.o.M

M.o.M.

Thanks very much!

As I thought this part of the methodology was introduced sometime after the initial 'Thoughts Of VDW'.

My own method of evaluating the class of recent form, which takes me off at a bit of a tangent I must admit, involves using placings and value of the last three races. I originally just wrote down the placing, no. of runners and the value(in £00s).

Using one of today's runners as an example

Murzim

last run 4th of 8 in class 65
2nd last run 2nd of 8 in class 34
3rd last run 1st of 6 in class 50

I refined that to give a 'class/performance' figure for each race. Basically it involves giving a percentage of the value of the race as a rating according to finishing position. I'd give the full value to the winner of an 8 runner race, 7/8s to the 2nd, 6/8s to the 3rd and so on down to 1/8 for the last place. Hence I'd give Murzim

65 x (5/8) = 40
34 x (7/8) = 29
50 (winner)= 50
Today's race was class 34, so these figures suggested he was well placed to win. As it happens Littlemissattitude had figures of 31, 67 and 35. I left the race as I require the horse with the highest rating to have two figures better than the rest of the field.

Of course other race considerations come in. If a horse gets a figure of 60 for coming a distance last in a 5-runner 300 class race then I would take the rating with a pinch of salt. I always make a quick investigation of the form to check that there are no anomalies.

That's a simplified version of how I apply the methodology. It puts in figures the approach I have used for the last few years.

Rob

Although VDW's ability rating is a very useful tool in assesing the overall merit of a horses form, recognition of a horses best run must also be useful as a basis for estimating it's class;e.g.
Lammtarra won a mickey mouse race fto & then won the Derby, whatever it won after that it was still THE DERBY WINNER. An extreme example maybe, but there are always horses that improve there ratings by 20/40 lbs in a season, and dividing their winnings by the number of wins will not always show their true class, whereas a horses highest value win should do, otherwise it wouldn't have won it,would it?
Hope this makes sense.
regards

well spotted with zingari

hope you got a large portion.

I have a lot of success with that when the horse is lowest on consistency but i wait for all three figures, i find they come round pretty often.

also whilst were are on variations, this is quite good, last three race values added together divide by three then divided by consistency. big numbers heap big good.

Johnd

I see your point. I think it's a valid one. With a race like the Derby I'm always aware that the winner can come from one of the less exposed horses. For this reason I don't treat the figures as gospel. I tend to be very wary of high class races where there are a number of unexposed horses. I very rarely bet on 3yo only races until the second half of the turf season. When I have a top rated horse I'll give it's form the once over to see if I think it genuinely has what it takes to win the race. It all depends on the time I have available. If I visit a meeting I'll take 2 or 3 hours and work carefully through each race, though using class and class figures as a base to work from. I'll dig out some of my notes and show how I dealt with a few races.

Barney

To a certain extent my calculations combine consistency with class. Ultimately in a class 60 race I would be more comfortable backing a horse with figures 58, 53, 60 than one with 30, 70, 40. Consistent performances are much more reliable than one big performance, although if the 30 and the 40 were both wins then that could make a difference. Then I would investigate the races involved. It's comforting for me that the figures often point me in the right direction.

When it comes to it, I find it an interesting exercise calculating the class and then weighing up the resulting data. Sometimes I'm proved right, sometimes wrong but in the latter case I may return to the figures and see that a different interpretation might have found the winner. It goes down as a lesson learned.

Rob

Yes I did, trust you filled yer boots,too.
If you get the chance have a look at Sun Bird for tommorow, I am convinced this horse is better with cut, but can't find the reference anywhere; also I can't decide whether he'll be up for this 8 grand, or if he's being saved for a bigger one.

Still way behind with the thread since my return from holiday but I note Johnd found Zingari today.

Well done.

Although I`m trying to catch up I note Johnd has mentioned the 3.50 Ayr tomorrow which does look a very good race to evaluate so if its OK I`ll be posting some comments either later this evening or early tomorrow.


Pipedreamer,

I had a great time thank you and I managed to find some decent racing on the local TV channels.


Cheers,

Although my evaluations haven`t started as yet, however with regards Sun Bird, the November H`cap would an ideal race for him.

That said, I`m reasonably confident I have another potential horse been readied for that who in my opinion has far more class than SB.

As we all know this is the time of year the majority of the `smaller` trainers are looking for their `winter hay`.

I put SB`s trainer in this catogary and in my opinion the prize is big enough for him to go for the pot tomorrow.

Cheers,