I have missed you mate

had a good holiday?

Hello, I used to view this board in particular this thread but have not visited for a while and I have a LOT of catching up to do so please bear with me before I can contribute constructively. The one thing I would like views on is National Hunt racing.

For years I was a flat lover. Jumping was for me just something to fill in the gaps, but just recently over the last two years or so I have found my love of jumping growing and my love of the flat wanning.

We know that VDW perfered the jumps over the flat, well we say we know but it is fact that he gave many more examples over the jumps than he did on the flat but that may well be simply down to the fact that VDW spent his summers else where.

Anyway the point I am trying to make is does the form work out better in jumps racing than it does on the flat? Over the jumps we have more experienced animals that are around a lot longer, in general, than flat animals.

I have to admit that I have spent the last month going through my records for last year over the jumps and have identified where I make a profit and what areas I make a loss in. I have also been going through my ChaseForm and old copies of the Racing post looking more closely at races I had rated seeing where I went wrong and where I got it right. It is amazing how much you learn doing this.

I am hoping of my best National Hunt season ever based on what I have discovered recently. I have also started to compile my own handicap ratings for the first time and so far the results are very encouraging and I will use them in conjunction with VDW's ratings.

Well thats about it let me know your views on National Hunt racing, and hopefully I will be able to add a little to this forum once I have caught up that is!

M.o.M

Had 2 great weeks in Florida and what do you know.

I telephoned my father very early on the morning of the Cambridgeshire asking him to place me a nice wager on B.Pilot and I have only just found out the result so you could say that I am a happy man.

I`ll be nipping down to my local newsagents shortly to collect all the back issues of the RP.

Did Scotts View win the Ascot 12 fur` h`cap and if so I`ll be a little disappointed as he was certainly been readied for that race.

Be back later once I`ve helped my lady wife with all this bloody washing !

Cheers,

Determined,

I remember you making comment about Beauchamp Pilot around the time of his run in the John Smiths at York and wondered whether or not you'd followed through. Then I rememberred that you were off on holiday and thought probably not. So that is good news indeed that you managed to get your bet on, after so carefully earmarking the horse so long before.

Oldtimer

its opened at five's

lets hope its stable money

When Will I Ever Learn

I thought e/w at 5/1 I would at least break even.

Tomorrow first cut

Ayr 3.50 Grizedale
Ayr 4.20 Soller Bay

Leicester 3.30 Dalblair

Windsor 3.40 Celtic Ballet/Tramantano

As you correctly pointed out I had noted B.Pilot several months ago as a Cambidgeshire possible.

Nice to know you read my posts.

Hope you are still finding the winners. As you can imagine I`m a long way behind reading the forum over the past 2 weeks.

Got 13 x RP`s to read and many video`s my mother kindly taped for me to watch so I best get cracking.


Barney,

Dr Cool, a 10/1 winner yesterday. Well done.


Cheers,

yes mate thanks

we had a nice 9/1 winner midweek as well, and some scraps.

don't it make you sick?

There is another 10/1 out there tommorow, but which one?

I have Starzaan (Leic 3.30) as a possible. This may depend on the going. Should beat Attorney General on a line through Knavesmire Omen.

Windsor 3.40

Bonaguil/Celtic Ballet and I have a 'feeling' about Tramantano

Ayr 3.50 - Grizedale

In ny opinion, Zingari is the c/f horse and the forecast 9/2 would be very acceptable.

Barney
I reckon it was lto that Sir Mark was taking the p***, and not the Ponte run.

Arrowson
I have a had a look through Celtic Ballet's form, and there are a few references to her needing cut in the ground. If this materialises,
then any improvement on her last run would see her go very close. Good luck if you do have a bet.

Generally,
A question that keeps popping up in my mind is, if VDW could back 29 winners in 32 races, why did he need a staking system? It is not my intention to "Stir it up", just that I can't justify the apparent contradiction.

and he said he used it to show a profit, not improve profit.BUT then he says the examples are modest odds and poor strike rate.

quote:

---

Originally posted by johnd:
A question that keeps popping up in my mind is, if VDW could back 29 winners in 32 races, why did he need a staking system? It is not my intention to "Stir it up", just that I can't justify the apparent contradiction.

---

I think the exact phrase was " I have placed 32 bets"
To get that sort of strike I think he must have dutched

if you can back 29 from 32 you would be mad NOT to have some sort of staking system.

420a turnback

i have had another look and there is conflict with chapter house.

I will keep looking.

sorry

Not a race I would normally back in as there are to be honest too many
Alternatives.

But HONOR ROUGE has a lot going for her
Last run at Ascot over 12f where she led into the last 4 furlongs at a
blistering pace
Headed 2f out (today's trip) only weakened going towards the last
furlong and the distance she was eventually beaten is down to being allowed to coast in

Couldn't resist the 25/1 So have backed E\W at that price

Should go well if ridden from the front and theres 4 places @1/4 the odds

It’s a competitive race and there are far too many alternatives to take savers but
Todays race is nowhere near the class of her Ascot race

Think Ill' wear my St Christopher for this one

Maybe he did dutch, nobody knows, but it's still a helluva strike rate, and if I were achieving it, I'd be more worried about getting my bets on, than a staking plan.
Good luck with HR today.

29 out of 32 would do me just fine for a whole year never mind a couple of months.

Hard to believe I'm afraid even with dutching

I got that excited grabbing 25/1 for HR and I have had G/F thrown at me from 3 different sources this morning
I Never thought to check
So its Good Good/soft at Windsor
Great
Need 2 St Christophers now

Hope they withdraw it