Hello you lot.
It would be a great help if you would name horses with their full names. Even better Barney if you could be bothered to say what time race they are in and where it is at. I have asked you to do this before, to no avail.
Why don't all/any of you name the horse once then press ctrl+c to copy it to your computer notebook.
Then each time you mention it there after you can just press ctrl+V and, HEY PRESTO there it is!
When i post my horses up I make it quite clear what theit full name is and where it's at.
In fact I think every poster does except people on here.
Come on chaps, not that difficult is it?
Cheers
Swish

Barney - It depends on how the horse is placed after a win. For instance, Pipstead had arguably won it's target when winning the KG hcap at Royal Ascot before then taking the Old Newton Cup when VDW said he was a good thing. Actually this horses form demonstrates how some trainers find the correct trip for their charges. Notice anything that rings a bell between Pipstead and say Blue Star on Saturday ? Or even Octane ?

The 3.40 at Windsor showed a situation where too many possibles emerged. Collier Hill certainly looked the most likely but not a good thing. The winner wasn't a real shock when you consider his best run this season.

thanks I will look at those.


Swish,

its not an attempt to mislead, I will try harder

" the winner namely C.Claymore wasn`t a shock when you look at his best run this season "

With respect you are having a laugh aren`t you ?

Cheers,

I have just been trying to find chat room for a chat with my mate JIB. Whilst I was waiting forever for it to load up,
I re-looked at VDW.
He writes "speed is no use without form"
I would like to day the exact opposite, which is:
"Form is no use without speed"
I am only willing to tell you this about 5 more times and that is your lot,
The horse that wins any race is the one that runs faster than the rest.
CAN'T YOU GRASP THAT?
I've tried to tell you for ages,
Swish

I have trawled through today's cards, but cannot find a reasonable bet, the nearest I came was George Stubbs, 2.40L,but there are questions about him.
To make matters worse, all this rain looks like scuppering the chances of Hugs Dancer for the Ces.

Swish
If, as you say, "form is no use without speed",, can you please explain how Scotts View managed to win 8 races this season before posting a respectable s/f?
Sorry about previous abbreviations, but some of us have enough problems typing without trying to read all those other buttons.

Regards

Determined


I don't imagine for one minute that Guest was having a laugh.

If you check out CC's form, even as recently as the 5 May run for which details were given in yesterday's Post, you'll see that he had decent form over yesterday's distance, on yesterday's going, and at more or less yesterday's class.

Mtoto is not posting here now, but several others who are, and I, can vouch for the fact that, in his pre-race evaluation of the race, while agreeing with you and Guest that Collier Hill was the most probable winner, Mtoto gave CC as the principal danger and a horse to save upon.

Further, I noted that Murphy on Attheraces gave it as his selection moments before the off.

Personally I do not believe CC could be identified as a VDW-based bet, however experienced the analyst, but his win, though not probable, was no shock. Frankly, the false-priced favourite winning would, to me, have been a far bigger shock, as it had no form in the Book remotely good enough. (Compare, for example, CC's run on 5 May, or even 14 August, with FF's best this year on 26 August - in a match there would have been only one horse that could logically have been backed.)

My comment to Guest was rest assured tongue in cheek as I know from his many excellent posts that he doesn`t joke about serious matters.

Your comments with regards FF been more of a surprise than CC if winning I totally accept.

One comment you make does distrurb me however, ie - I know both you and Mtoto post on a `private` forum. It sounds from your comment that several others from this thread do likewise.

Why then do you bother with us lesser lights ?

MTOTO,

Why are you not posting on here anymore ?Secondly, if I`m not mistaken CC was bottom weight and way out on one of your main filters so Fulham`s comments that he was a likely danger did surprise me.


JOHND,

Hugs Dancer has been a revelation this year and he was one of my horses to follow at the start of the year. Unfortunately for me I`ve backed him just once when in defeat.

With regards Saturday`s race. Very competitive as usual but for me at this stage the short priced favourite namely Tees Components is a very strong selection.

Cheers,

Determined

It would never occur to me to describe the likes of Guest, Statajack, Lee, Chaz and various others as "lesser lights". This thread is the best forum for discussion of VDW methodology I know, including all the public, semi-private (like this board) and wholly private ones of which I have experience.

It may be that Mtoto will feel able to respond to your question to him - I very much hope so. But the explanation of why he is not currently posting lies in the period you were away, and is on one of the threads on the General forum. Essentially, Mtoto became disenchanted with the what he saw as the abusive nature of some posts, and Gummy's toleration of it.

[This message was edited by Fulham on October 16, 2002 at 09:03 AM.]

Thanks for the response.

I agree that this forum is brilliant and long may it continue.

We need the likes of Mtoto.

I will contact him direct at some stage as I have his e mail address.

"Lesser lights" - all those named by Fulham are certainly not lesser lights. Rest assured I am.

Cheers,

Determined - As I said before the race yesterday, I agreed with your view that Collier Hill was the most likely winner, but if you look at the deeper picture there were so many horses running in a lesser class of RACE than they had shown capable of winning under various conditions. This then leads to the class of OPPOSITION being too strong to sort a clear selection out.

As to Mtoto and others not posting anymore I can only think it has to do with some of the juvenile back biting that goes on from time to time from those not so interested in VDW.

Swish - Yes of course the horse who completes the course in the fastest time wins the race, but surely you realise not all races are truly run, in fact far from it. No single factor determines the outcome of horseracing. VDW was adamant on that after years of experience and I fully agree. Yes when the horse with the fast figures has everything else line up in favour it is seldom beaten, but that doesn't happen every day and it isn't a necessary requirement to form a good bet.

Class is far more important but even that has to tie up with form.

Determined

There are two reasons why this thread is the best VDW forum of which I have any knowledge.

1) it is largely, though inevitably not wholly, without the element of disruption which often characterises both public and semi-public VDW forums. (I'm thinking specifically of the thread about a year ago on the Racing Systems board, and the now essentially moribund VDW Methodology Group);

2) more importantly, there is a wide range of experience among posters, so that most can realistically expect to learn from at least some other posters. I've certainly learnt more, here, in the last year than in a variety of other forums previously.

But the quality of this thread does not, of itself, render other vehicles redundant. Some, like myself, may be unwilling to address current races prior to the "off" in such a public forum. Also, there are matters pertaining to VDW's methodology that (for perfectly understandable reasons) some are unwilling to explore in any detail in such a forum. Other vehicles meet those specific needs.

430l mystereium

can anybody explain to me why this horse, in its chester run, a class 80 race ran in a race approx 2 1/2 second above standard against a horse that was in form had been dropped from a class 320 race to collect and finished second yet attained the unremarkable speed figure of 1.

similarly look first ran in a race approx 2 1/2 secs above standard in a class 56 and was plced 5th yet gets a figure of 52.

I dont know me.

Fulham

re Addressing current races before the off

It may be worthwhile someone starting a new thread on the VDW board to cover 'Current Race Analysis'. Too often on here the discussion gets caught up on issues which are not directly 'VDW issues', so tends to go off at a tangent, or in a different direction, before someone pulls it back to VDW. I'm afraid I'm probably guilty of diverting from the subject on occasions.

Another point re analysis of current races is that too often correspondents are quite clearly trying to 'force a selection' rather than waiting for a clear opportunity. The apparent obsession with finding a selection when The Old Newton Cup comes around is a case in point!

Fulham

re the ONC,

I am new to VDW and this is the first year I ever new there was such a race, you cant blame people for having a try.

johnd,

what do think of desert city 415b

Rob

That idea certainly has merit, and I know another forum where it is applied. On the other hand, discussion of current races, both before and after the event, sometimes leads into comparisons with the old VDW examples, more general issues of methodology, etc, and it may be helpful not to have to pop between threads. Personally, I'm not sure where the balance of advantage lies.

As to forcing selections, I tend to agree with you, and have found myself doing so when I put a lot of time into an analysis for a pre-race posting. I suppose its natural to feel that after putting in an hour or two on a particular race one wants to capitalise, but that is truly where temperament comes in. Better to write off the time spent than compound it with monetary loss, though in truth I don't think the time is really lost - its more a question of regarding it as time spent on the practice ground.

Whether its a product of "forcing" I don't know, but I am struck by the apparent differences in frequency of bets (apparent because what is mentioned on the board is presumably far from the full story). A poster (Johnd or yourself?) recently mentioned that he's analysed 16 races over the past few days without finding a bet. That is very much my own situation. Others seem to find several a day, and they are by no means all among the least experienced in applying VDW's approach.

I think that whenever VDW picked up the paper he found bets.

Many times he says something like " i glanced at the paper and" invariably he comes up with selections whether good thing, best bet of the day etc. these some of the many selections we are poring over.

and how anyone can say they overlooked Zingari from a VDW point of view is beyond me, class horse, ability horse, consistent horse, now I agree that last week there was some aspects of her race that created conflict of a minor nature BUT this week not so. Similarly big bad bob at the weekend. what are you waiting for ? temperament is a two way street learn to miss a race but also when to get on.

quote:

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Originally posted by Barney:

Many times he says something like " i glanced at the paper and" invariably he comes up with selections whether good thing, best bet of the day etc. these some of the many selections we are poring over.

---

The above paragraph may well be true, though if it is then I cannot believe VDWs claimed win percentage, even backing more than one horse. The game isn't like that, although I must admit that some of my best bets stand out straight away.

Ultimately the bettor strikes a balance between patience and waiting too long, according to what best suits them. Earlier in the season I was backing 10+ selections a week(about 30% win rate), but now with bigger fields and conditions changing selections are not nearly so regular. Incidentally after a few days with no bet I've gone for George Stubbs at Lingfield, dropped a long way in class and well rated on ability.

If I'm having a bet there are two criteria which I must be happy with

1. Do I genuinely think this horse will win?

2. Is the price reasonable value?

If the answer to the first is only maybe then I may still bet if I feel the price is good enough to allow for the degree of doubt.

Rob

infrasoniqe 405w

most consistent, highest ability, class horse, class/ form horse.

An easy one.

quote:

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Originally posted by Barney:
infrasoniqe 405w

most consistent, highest ability, class horse, class/ form horse.

An easy one.

---

Fitness?

Rob