Barney

Leicester 3.30 1m Stakes Class 75

Groovy - 3rd of 11 in class 109, held in class 160, won a 51 maiden.
Lady Zonda - won in class 126 then disappointed in 167.
Lookalike - seems well held on last of 9 in 159. Win came in a 44 maiden.
Mahsusie - comfortably held in 232, 239 and 155. Has won on softish, but a couple of latest runs on softish(assuming ground turns soft).
Trojan Princess - 6th of 8 in 78, well held 4th of 6 in 167, 2nd of 4 in 81.


Tentative vote for Lady Zonda, but this one is unproven with give. Groovy is probably the danger, but no more than that. With VDW Methodology you need to be confident, and none of these inspire confidence.

Rob

Rob

I am sure that lady zonda is out of form and probably over the top.

Your right about doubt but I like to whittle away as well.

Why did VDW say handicaps are happy hunting grounds? He must have been throwing things out left right and centre

Barney

I reckon that's why he was able to boast such high success rates.

I've had a look at 16 races since last Friday, and haven't had a bet, nor got particularly near to one. I checked out 3 at Sedgefield today , and the nearest I got to a selection was Beedulup in the selling handicap hurdle!

I always exercise a fair amount of caution at this time of year, although sometimes some decent bets come up when a horse gets on a late season run of form.

It comes down to that word 'temperament'!

Rob

Barney, do you always choose the 3:30?
I would make Lady Zonda a clear selection if it wasn't for the peculiar jockey booking. Lookalike would be my next choice but I dont bet in situations such as this.

Fulham
I haven't forgotten, I will think about it later.

Thanks for the details, I agree with you that if he's up for this race, he'll win it; Unfortunately I have been indisposed most of the morning, and I have already dutched all 3.
Be an interesting race to watch now.
Determined
I couln't have the Dunlop horse, although I did notice the money piling on, he has got a lot to find (In my opinion).

Statajack
Nice to hear from you again.

Luck to everyone

Any views on G.M.Moore's choice of jockeys in the 3:40 Sedgefield?

Nobody could isolate Factor Fifteen using the VDW methodology.

FF clearly does not have the form in the book to win such a race whereas, as Guest pointed out earlier today many of todays runners have winning form in better value and/or race class.

Of the opposition, Sun Bird has without doubt the best winning class form, ie - the Old Newton Cup.
I however take the view (maybe wrongly) that that race was very misleading form wise. SB has hardly gone onto better things.

Leaving SB`s Haydock run aside what other from does he have that compares with CH form ?

I take the view CH progressive form is better than SB`s overall form and I am confident CH will prevail over SB.

This is my interpretation of the form and yes come 4.00pm today I could easily have egg well and truely on my face.

Back to FF. To identify him as a probable winner, I accept takes some understanding. I on occasion (far less than I use too) look further than the norm` when evaluating unexposed horses and today is a case in point.

The trainer has had a bitch of a season but he knows how to train and place lightly raced improving horses.

His first 3 runs hardly set the world alight. That resulted in a lowly h`cap mark of 72. Put away for 2 months then placed to win his first h`cap albeit a moderate class E, value £3605.

Hardly inspiring I know but several `factors` lead me to believe an improved performance is expected. Whether that improvement will be sufficient to take the prize I don`t know.

Clearly a case of proven form v. `guesswork`.

Summary - CH remains my first choice and in view of the money for FF this morning I`m anticipating a decent price of 5/1.

VP and FF may stilll be taken with CH in combination f/c`s.

*** if I`m wrong then I sincerly hope it is by Sun Bird as whilst I`ll have a little egg on my face at least a fellow poster will be smiling ***

Good luck,

Epiglotis

re G.M. Moore's jockeys in the 3.40 Sedgefield. I wonder if it has anything to do with the weights. Russ Garrity's minimum is given as 10.3, but there's a chance he might not be comfortable doing 10.5 on Poacher's Run. Alternatively Orange order may need a careful ride and Moore may favour Garrity over Ephgrave on this one. Orange Order is a quirky character, but has a good record round Sedgefield, so it may make sense to have the experienced rider up.

I reckon this is pretty open race anyway, and it's possible to make out a case for each runner.

Rob

Thanks for an interesting reply. Lord York is the only horse that I've been planning to back today but this G.M.Moore business is giving me second thoughts.

According to my unworthy reckonings, Clarinch Claymore was last on everything and yet it romped home at the disgustingly short price of 14/1. Obviously someone knew something.

Glad I didn't get involved in the race at Leicester, but I hate small fields when there's a few in it - you can never get any value, plus the race is rarely run at a decent pace.

There's always tomorrow, I hope!

Oldtimer

Where the hell did that come from? He's in a class E at Redcar on Friday, and on today's run would be a laydown.

Old Timer
Perhaps you have got the beginings of a system there.
Walter Pigeon
Welcome to the Monday night piss-artist's club.

Anyone for Viewforth?

A win bet on CH was the final decision. Watching the race I was counting my money for 11 of the 12 furlongs but out of the pack comes CC who romps home.

No prizes for 2nd place.

Whilst losing money is not something I enjoy I did learn several things from the race so there was a silver lining.

Cheers,

I am sure everyone who looked at this race from a VDW point of view gave him due consideration as he was a form horse.

now if hed had 9-2 or 9-7 last time we would have given him more respect, yet again the two form horses fight it out.

determined,

unlucky!

i will have a bit of fun with college maid but I keep getting back to colnel kozando as well, probably because im hungry.

CC was well placed on consistency and therefore a form horse ( ? ) but in my opinion he had nothing else going for him and was quickly omitted from my calculation`s.

That said, after the event, I have just noticied
the impressive stats` when P.Hanagan rides this horse.

A very important factor in my book is the jockey booking however even knowing this stat` before the race wouldn`t have put me on this one.

In short, the form doesn`t always work out the way we`d like.

** role on Newmarket **

Cheers,

An elderly chap in my local bookies has CC doubled up with College Maid.

Cheers,

Well the one thing he definitely wasn't last on was consistency, rated second behind Collier Hill (nice little reversed Exacta there!), not out of the first 3 in 7 outings before this, putting it all in at the end of his races as well.
He didn't have a very good time on the All-Weather last year, but now he's in form and is still on a very reasonable mark a win at Southwell would seem a distinct possibility.

Rob

I hope he's got hundreds on it and not bloody 50p.


pointer but not necessarily

right letter wrong horse

I am presently on page 247 as I catch up with the thread.

I`m rather frustated to find both Scotts View and Demonstrate have been in the winners enclosure whilst I was away.

JOHND` I note highlighted both horses and how can I forget his naming of Millenium Force. Well done indeed.

***** I note Masterful is entered over 9 fur`s on Saturday at Newmarket *****

Cheers,