Ah well ! thats where we are different.

how are you? i see you got a good mention off Fulham. The board is poorer without you.

Rob,

VDW went for lots of FT outer's.

why should we not?

Barney

Looking at the race again, I think you are probably spot on. Percy Parkeeper looks beatable, this is higher than Chergan's normal class. The rest are either too old or don't look quite good enough. Infrasonique has run well after a lay-off, and has plenty of plusses, so it seems you are pretty well on the mark.

Rob

Only had time for a quick scan, Desert City should benefit for this c/d, has some decent form in the book, and was "Ridden strangely" in his last 2 races. Against that he has yet to get his head in front. I will watch this one with interest.
Infrasonique does look very tempting.

Good luck to all.

Barney.

I was just having a look at your question re speed.

I assume you are looking at Top Speed. The first thing, is how correct are the standard times. Next, standard times are worthless without a going allowance. This also applies to the hypothetical Guineas race.

Determined.

Clarinch Claymore.

While CC was out of one of my filters, it was up too scratch on the other one. It was well in the vdw filter, and that is one of the main criteria if you are using a vdw method. I think the difference is where and when you do operate the filters. In saying this, I didn't really expect it to win (certainly not like that) but if you were covering all bases a place bet wasn't out of order. When I was trying to get a fair place bet, 16 to 19/1 was too good to turn down. + a lot of people must have thought it was nailed on for the place, as the price wasn't up too much.

Can't find a decent bet today, so I will get back to watching Alan Potts. Best thing on ATR for a long time.

Be Lucky

surely non of these are good enough to beat donizetti 320L.

Bloody hell, not bad at 5/2 but 5/4? that charlton must be lumping on again.


Mtoto,

those are the figures given in the Rp under the horse performance in the race. They are not my figures.

Nice to see you post.

Barney,

That's one of my arguments, the speed figures for the race are corrected to if the horse was carrying 10st - most times they're not. Currently I am playing with converting the quoted figures back to speed figures for the weight the horse actually carried, which seems to me to be more logical.

Oldtimer

Rob

Judging by how it ran, I think you were right when questioning Infrasonic's fitness, something on which, at least in the few minutes before the off, Attheraces offered no relevant comment at all.

VDW named over 100 selections, but only two losers and one of those won on a disqualification. Quite a few were first time out, but its reasonable to suppose that some of his losers were, also. Presumably, unless he was at the track, or had VERY good grounds for assuming fitness (as with Rifle Brigade), he accepted an element of gamble, despite his words in the "Spells it all out" article.

I thought it was given a very tender ride.

I know this is after the event so holds about as much water as a sieve! I was reminded by a friend yesterday that he had not shown any form with the weight or first time up, also if you look at his form he was consistently beaten over the distance time and time again and it was only the last run when stepped up in distance that he put his head up in front. Todays race looked like a "good thing" on the bare figures and like most thought the same until I examined his past form and that combined with his weight today I had him a bit to find. Barney makes a good point he wasnt exactly pushed at the end and this could just be a "pipe opener" running him over a distance too short of his best. Watch him when returned to 3m+

M.o.M

Will the horse I expect to just about win the Nov`br H`cap namely Lingo be placed to win tomorrow or will he be given an `easy` after his 76 day lay off ?

This horse has been waiting for soft ground. He`s been entered for all the big autumn h`caps over 9 -12 fur`s bypassing them all.

His fitness in my opinion will not be in question but the trainer`s intensions tomorrow as far as I`m concerned are unclear.

Any comments ?

Cheers,

Infrasonique - If you look at how this horse was placed last season you should note several things of interest.

Firstly he didn't win a chase here until placed over a longer distance in a race previously taken by the trainer. Secondly he came out early and ran many times.

Thirdly he was trying to win his first handicap with 11-10 against a horse who had just won a class 81 race and was now carrying bottom weight and fit.

Winning a good class conditions race doesn't mean a horse can suddenly win a good class handicap with topweight, unless it had done so before of course.

Lingo is a good horse, and improving, but it would be wrong to assess him solely on his Epsom form.
Systematic definitely didn't show anything like his true form that day, and Far Lane has improved considerably since that race.
This is not to say that Lingo won't win today, just that his best form is highly suspect.
Good luck if you back him.

If you take the view that the fast 1m at Newmarket was too short for Spinette, as all her form indicates, then she is a stand-out today
In my view, Solo Flight is the clear c/f horse in the 1.45, but there is a niggling doubt about him lasting home on this ground. At 16/1, a small interest may be the answer.

I note your comments with regards Lingo and agree that Systematic didn`t run his race at Epsom.

Lingo`s overall form in truth whilst progressive still needs to improve to be competitive today.

I take the same view as I did with Beauchamp Pilot ( not posted on the forum as I was away ), ie - both horses in my opinion were/are better than the form they had shown so far.

I acknowledge that we should only be dealing with proven form but I really do believe Lingo is better than his present official rating.

Cheers,

I was under the impression that the race times now used by top speed are based on record times.

Guest,

nice one, Thanks for the pointers the other day.

the ground is now reported as good/ soft and drying out