boozer,

bloody typical I only picked four and that was the only loser, I thought they were the best two. God bless VDW.

johnd,

I think that the form was G/F in the hunt cup, I hope you had some on.

Guest,

well done with dress to thrill

common denominator is

LADY BEAR to win

I thingk LB stands for Loada Borrox

Islington has a lot of pluses and she is still improving, she is also v.close on ratings, but this years Derby is probably the best class on offer, so dutching Islington/High Chapparal is possibly the answer.
Bright Sky though, 2.35, does look the proverbial good thing.
Barney
Didn't have a bet in BP's race,paralysis by analysis I guess.
The way the other 2 ran, I still have a long way to go.
Good luck to everyone today.

I too thought that the hunt cup was the best class on offer yesterday.

Remember that class is the KINGPIN lots of races yesterday went to vdw type class runners.

newmarket

timing
steelaninch
beuchamp pilot
and look at khulood odds on in a class 120 and then a strange performance then romps in when no one wants to back it. where have i heard that before?

and redcar

somnus was outstanding for all vdw fans i am sure

and the bloody thing that beat roses of spring both from a class 100 race roses of spring was 9/2 and beverly macca was 66/1 and was better of at the weights.

there is a common denominator that runs through all those, from a vdw perspective, that should not be ignored EVER.

johnd you need both class and placement.

hope this helps

[This message was edited by Barney on October 06, 2002 at 08:17 AM.]

Barney

I would say the 3 horses that finished in front of Roses Of Spring yesterday had no business doing so based on official figures.

There again neither had Absent friends (14lbs Wrong) who the other day beat Johnd’s selection Henry hall a short hd .

It would seem on accasions that weight on a horses back doesn’t seem to make much difference.

1.25 longchamp

all runners up to 8/1


name.......best win..... best race......past race

G N.........243...........1276...........580...
P S.........454...........454............384..
P...........332...........332............202..
P P.........580...........9440...........600..
B...........985...........980............202..
C...........160...........330............202..

todays race value is up in class for all runners class 700.
there is conflict amongst the class ratings bangalore has won the best race, in give notice's best race he beat PP, but was he fully tuned? pp comes from the best race.
When considering the class of race is not the same as the class of opposition then PP is the c/f horse.

There is further conflict at the distance of todays race, 2m4f where GN has beaten PP but was pp then at peak?

I think PP is the likely winner but there is obvious conflict in the shape of bangalor and GN on all known class.

there are occasions(like roushayd) when everything lines up and these are what we are waiting for.

Hopefully the posting of ratings this past week has shown that they are only a guide, but useful in weighing up the real odds. 4 bets out of 8 placed were landed.

Today there are 4 horses I consider to be good things and they are High Chaparral and Bright Sky at Longchamp along with Scottish Memories and Wouldn't You Agree at Tipperary.

I was beginning to wonder you know.

good afternoon
Unfortunately i haven't been able to see the site/thread for the best part of a week.Which hasn't been a bad thing really,Because then there can be no hindsitis with selections.

I agree with your selections in the main,I was suprised you never mentioned Somnus yesterday which i thought was a very good bet.As we all know the selection method is based on logic,Sometimes i feel you throw caution to the wind,i.e ground conditions,Alot of the time you don't seem to put to much of an emphasis on this,Is this something you have gained with experience or do you tend to by pass it as a lesser important factor

Guest.

Thanks for putting up the other ratings you use as a guide. One thing that did stand out for me was how many of the top 2 on speed produced the winner. I don't use Top Speed (can't see the point of having a s/f adjusted at one end but not the other) I use unadjusted figures, so at times I have a different fastest 2 in the race too you. Nevertheless, when the figures have agreed the best 2 on speed have done well. The other good thing is no one can say I picked the races, I have just looked at the races you put up. Also the bare s/f has been used, with no account taken of the class they were awarded in. At Newmarket there have been at least another 2 races that would have given the winner using the speed element coupled with the vdw formulas. The sequence of bets was 2nd 11/1 won 5/1 (sp 100/30) won 9/1 2nd 8/1 2nd 7/1 won 9/1 5th 12/1.

I'm also surprised at how many bets you find in a day. Do you particularly like Irish racing? I find it hard enough to keep up with the racing without looking for more.

Be Lucky.

there was another today at longchamps.

Hold that tiger slight odd against 11/10 to beat spartacus 16/1 in a group one (bum run?) then romps home today.

MMMMMMMMMM!!!!

That obrien's not white as snow is he?


Bright sky - had it all that one placed as well - perfect

Thanks for the posting re Nemarket etc, Somnus was a real "Sore thumb". Message rec'd & understood.
It was the York race that clinched it for me with Beauchamp P, as he was ridden as though it was a sighter, (first time over the distance). This, coupled with his Hunt Cup run, set me thinking about the next big h'cap around this trip. Then I didn't have the nous to follow it through. Come on a long way since "On the buses",that trainer?
Looks like knitting or gardening for the next 4 days.
Good luck.

"Butlar" was seen on ATR with the 2yr old Elusive City walking round the paddock himself with the youngster day before racing, says a lot for his aptitude.

Mtoto - You'd be surprised at how often my handicap ratings highlight a decent priced winner, but I try and stick to the ones that have the class/form to back it up.

The speed rating is very consistent at highlighting worthy contenders also and given other factors I made a big mistake in leaving out Beauchamp Pilot yesterday. Lady Bears last run was a downturn and treated too kindly by myself. The other 2 were strong contenders though it is worth noting that Kirovski has already been dropped in class with a similiar weight and failed so he is probably harshly handicapped after romping home earlier in year by a wide margin.

Irish racing gets excellent coverage here now and I've got all the relevant form required to find bets on any given day, if they are there to be found.

Investor - In truth I didn't look at the Redcar card in depth on a busy day. The winner was no surprise of course looking at the race, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Suffice to say I recouped losses and more when Bright Sky romped home and it was a familiar scenario after 2 losers when Wouldn't You Agree won at 13/8 also. Don't forget VDWs staking method.

The ground is very important, but recently it has remained fairly consistent so not worth too much emphasis.

an example of what i'm trying to get across,Happened today at tipperary.I can fully understand yor reasoning behind scottish memories,But did you not consider intersky falcon a live danger and maybe the race was worthy of making a book.I.F had proven ability on the ground whereas S.M had done all its running on g/y or as we know it g/s

Guest you mention that you use VDW staking
method which said in systematic betting a
500 point bank was required.This seems very
large compared to a 50 point bank that many
pro`s would use if you have a good system.
The goal from vdw staking method is to win
1point per bet .but is this any better than
winning 0.1 points from each bet which many
would be happy with using level stakes.
I`m not convinced that VDW staking is better
than level stakes because of the bigger bank
required.



Maggsy

Guest.

Pleased to see things are turning around for you with the results. With the losing run you have just incurred, weren't the stakes getting a bit high?

I only back the class/form horse (my way) I don't even look for a second rated. I must admit with the Cambridgeshire I did take the second rated into account, one because of the amount of runners. Two, because they were so close on the York form. As I have said before I was also worried that Kirovski had left his very best form at York. I am also very surprised how often we agree on the c/form horse as we approach it from different directions. In fact I think the main difference is what we look for in price and interpretation of being in or out of 'form.' Did you make Passing Glance the c/form horse?

Cracking the handicap, could you point me to the page, and book where this is mentioned?

Barney.

Are you really suggesting O'Brien pulled or fiddled with Hold That Tiger, what would be the point? Is it not more likely the horse was under the weather, and they didn't push it when they knew? Throw away a Group 1?

Be Lucky

VDW said a long time ago that some very strange things happen in racing and only lately am I starting to pick up on these. "Dermot" could have mucked it out that morning for all you or I know.

A yard that makes more money from breeding than racing has other agenda's to meet not necessarily a plot to get a big bet on and a big priced winner.

horses that have the ability that hold that tiger shown yesterday would be the talk of the town, no wonder it was a short price in that race.

The most important thing it seems to me is for obrien horses to get "G1 winner" at the side of their name for breeding purposes and stud value.

There was another good horse of o'briens in that race as well, mariano marini at 7/2, if the "real deal" was having an off day then surely that should have won?

I think they knew that was its best opportunity for a group one win.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter a jot because I know to look out for them for whatever reason that they fail when expected.

That M.Kinane must be well pissed of as it seems that he is the fall guy all the time "picked the wrong one again mick" how many times have we heard that question asked by interviewer's? They must be saying to him if you dont like it lump it!

It is inconcievable, to me at any rate, that a jocky with such close links with the yard would not be knowing the ins and outs of the good and not quite as good horses that are there.

Then again what do i know? That might be the way that form really works out.

I think when you ask if the stakes were getting a bit high,if guest was using vdw's staking plan they must have gone through the roof.