Newmarket 2.50

Hurricane Alan.....7*.....199*.....117*.....73*
Marino Marini......6*.....160*.....119*.....74*
Muqbil.............3*.....132*.....109......67
Governor Brown.....6*......65......107......51
Iron Lad..........10.......29......115......38

A 2yo race so the ratings have to be treated with caution. The f/c fav Muqbil showed a reasonable level of form fto over 7f at Newbury and is now raised in class. Marino Marini has run well in better class, though is now up in trip as is Hurricane Alan. Muqbil is the most probable winner, but not a sure thing for me.

Newmarket 3.25

Golden Nun.........14*....135*....97.....59*
Robinia Parkes......8*.....42*....98.....58
Celestia...........11*.....48*....95.....47
Peripheral..........8*.....60*....92.....56
Capulette..........13......35.....82.....30
Garmoucheh.........(9*).....0.....88.....62*
Lady Mytton........21.......0.....89.....23
Peruvia............11.......0.....95.....39
Ikan................8*.....48*....90.....51
La Campanella......12......39.....91.....32
Princess Speedfit..19.......0.....89.....39
Bint Alhaarth......14.......0.....86.....36
Aramada Grove......18......37.....99*....49
Aries..............16......29.....99*....48
Alpha Omega........16.......0.....92......2
Legality...........(9*)....28.....98.....28
Pont Neuf..........12.......0.....92.....13
Rodeo Drive........19......40.....91.....45

Newmarket 2.15

Kens Dream........(10*)....39.....91.....62
Sorcerous...........6*.....90*...124*....62
Tholjanah..........15......42....123.....46
Ladys Secret.......14*(7?).34....130*....83*
Robe Chinoise......12*.....61*...118.....69*
Sundrenched........20.....125*....21.....63

Ladys Secret appears to have a lot going for her and she does have the best form. However there are one or two negatives in the form to keep the money in the pocket. A probable winner but not a good thing.

Nothing to be found at Newmarket today from the VDW perspective.

Chat

Anyone?

Excellent work.

Well done to all who contributed to those results.


Can someone put me off Royal Cavalier tomorrow (Newm 1.45). This just looks to have everything you could ask for a winner in a race.

I have another fancy for tomorrow. Kathology (Sals 3.45).

Has been running in some very competitive handicaps at Ascot, Goodwood, Newbury, Sandown and Doncaster since winning over course and distance in June. That was in what was effectively a 0-82, and he carried joint top weight of 9-10 from an equally bad draw as tomorrow. A repeat of that performance should see him home.


Worries are the ground (probably best on good or softer), the draw and improvement by Seel Of Approval.

10/1 would sort of make up for that a bit.

chrisb,

sorry mate must have just missed you.

310s

one last time should win this after a nice freshen up

Golden Nun is very interesting in this race. Having won a better race than this at Donny, and looking to need further, she was then raised in class, dropped back in distance, and given more to do in the race itself, at Ayr.
Today she is dropped in class, and placed over a C/D which should see her improve, is the trainer trying to tell us something?

Barney
One Last Time's "freshen-up run" was 70 days ago, which must be a bit of a worry!

Best of luck but I really dont understand why you think this is a suitable race in which to seek an investment.

You may well be right about the apprentice race, but is a class D in all but name, and I now have both Nick Fox and Dave Nevison, (two of the few judges I respect outside this forum ) on my side.
I suspect that it's going to start a lot shorter than the forecast, but given luck in running, it does look a good thing.

Thanks for the reply. Dont you think it's difficult to reconcile "luck in running" with the concept "good thing"?

where can i find a decent race result to see what went wrong?

I cant wait until tomorrow.

johnd,

i thought the break would freshen it up

Hi guys.
Must have logged off just as you two were active on this thread last night.
Would have loved to have had a chin wag with either of you in the chatroom.
Your contributions are much apprieciated by the likes of myself who have an interest in VDW but perhaps struggle a bit with VDW.

Thursday 3rd October 2002

Newmarket 2.50

Country Reel........3*....384*....101.....73
Elusive City........3*....449*....117.....88*
Fiddlers Reach.....11.............114.....67
Irrawaddy..........21......81.....105.....21
Membership..........8......38.....118*....71
Miguel Cervantes....9......80.....118*....52
Oasis Dream.........8......52......91.....53
Ontario............10.....183*....116.....58
Sir Albert.........14.....116*....114.....71
Tomahawk............5*.....80.....118*....68
Zafeen..............4*....183*....119*....85*

Elusive City represents a true odds on chance by my calculations and ought to be a good thing. The market will need watching though just in case the horse is overbet.

Newmarket 2.15

Ecology............18......49......0......0
Umistim.............8.....138*...126.....86
Sohaib..............6*....193*...122.....76
Calcutta............7.....120*...129*....87*
Desert Deer.........6*....111....138*....86
Kings Ironbridge...11.....108....123.....81
Masterful...........5*....149*...119.....75
Vicious Knight.....14......59....121.....87*
Tikkun..............4*.....53....111......0

There is some conflict here, but on balance Desert Deer looks to hold an excellent chance with true odds around 4/6.

A possible 2 bets then odds permitting.

Golden Nun
Came with every chance in final furlong, but the way the 4 other principals gained ground on her in the last 100 yds suggests that this 7f was a little too far. At least she was doing her best.
Bandler Ching
I am completely at a loss with this one, in a race which should have been no problem, he was never seen with a chance. Maybe Epiglotis had a point. Night Sight however, ran exactly as expected, and I am fairly sure that he is being readied for something at 12f+.


GUEST
I am intrigued as to your reasoning in Desert Deers race, Masterful is surely a better class horse on form, is it the sf or the distance that makes the difference?

3.25 NEWM.
Demonstrates penultimate run on the wrong side at Ascot makes very interesting viewing for anyone who has the vt. His last run was his jockeys idea of compensating for a bad draw, and he got what he deserved. Although today's prize money is poor by comparison, there can't be many options left for a 4yo, top of the ground,7f horse, and in view of the above I would make him a bet today.

bandler ching

seems like one to be on next time to me

Johnd

While demonstrate looks to have a major chance in the 3-25
Without doubt So does Mr Mahoose
The prizemoney of the previous runs doesn’t tell the full story

Have a look at Mr M's last run on the Video
You couldnt help but be impressed
That said id take Demonstrate to finish in front
A good race to watch at least

[This message was edited by boozer on October 03, 2002 at 09:46 AM.]

JohnD - When Masterful won a group race in France last year it was against horses, whilst good, that had been running over much further distances than todays. Masterful then had a year off the track before returning in a minor 3 runner event where despite leading 2f out, he was caught by Umistim, a decent enough horse but who should have been beatable. He has been absent again since.

Desert Deer probably needed it when beaten at York after a 3 month break. He stepped up considerably on that next time against Duck Row and then was dropped giving weight to Common World who had been mixing it with group 1/2 horses. The track will suit and of course the speed factor is there to compensate for the slight shortfall in overall winning achievements so far.

Pipedreamer.

I think you have taken on a very hard task. While ALL the selections put up by some posters are undoubtedly VDW selections, in one way or another. Others seem to be just thoughts, or fancies that bear little or no relationship to VDW. How are you going to sort the wheat from the chaff?

Guest.

Who do you make the c/form horse in the 2:15 at Newmarket? I make Sohaib the one (my way) and looking at your figures I think you would agree. I know the c/form horse isn't the automatic bet, but in this case I make him the bet. I have read your analysis with interest, but feel Desert Deer has a long way to go. He has been a talking horse that to me still has a lot to prove. In saying that I wish you the best of luck. I have backed Sohaib at 11/1 and notice he is only slightly lower on the exchanges to be placed, than DD is to win.

Be Lucky

I had Desert Deer down has having near on an 80% chance of winning that race,So i,m of the same opinion as guest when he said it was a true odds on chance,A bit of an illusion i would say.

Mtoto - A case of the class/form horse being a bit of a red herring. Sohaib had run against a good horse last time when 3rd of 6 dropped in race class, but lost against a lesser horse getting weight before that. Umistim was behind Desert Deer when that horse stepped up it's form and the horse DD beat last time giving weight had good recent form in the book, better than any of todays field.

The other race went to a very unexposed horse, well unexposed in the form book only judging by the betting.

The 2.15 at Newmarket was a very illuminating example of a message that was repeated many times by the Master.
I had no financial interest in the race, as I thought that Masterful was the class horse, but I am always suspicious when a group2 winner runs in a listed race.
These suspicions were confirmed by the running of the race.
Masterful won a 10f Gp2 on soft ground, run at a reasonable pace by leading all the way. When a horse wins in this manner it strongly suggests that the trainer knows the horse either stays the distance well or lacks a finishing kick, take your pick.
Today, even though it was 2f shorter and on much faster ground the horse was ridden from off the pace.WHY?????????????????.
In my view, the horse was comfortable with the strong pace throughout the race, and wasn,t asked a serious question until the race was nearly over, in fact I will go as far as to say that had he been ridden more positively he would definitely have won.
THE CLEAR MESSAGE IN THIS IS THAT TRAINERS, EVEN THE TOP BOYS, ARE STILL TRAINING THEIR HORSES ON THE RACECOURSE, MUCH LIKE THEY DID IN VDW'S DAYS!
Why then, do most of the subscribers to this forum ( Apologies to Barney and the odd other one), keep churning out their figures with no apparent regard to this fundamental part of VDW's teachings?
I claim no deep knowledge of this particular aspect, indeed I only started this train of thought some 6 weeks ago when I saw 2 horses that I had backed ridden completely the opposite to thier previous good races. It has happened many times in the past, and I have been more than a little naive not to pursue it further, but now, at last, I have got my head out of the sand, and although I still have a long way to go, I am certain that the future will be much brighter.
I have no wish to upset any of the subscribers to this forum, it has been very helpful to me since I discovered it recently, but I would urge anybody who disagrees with what I am saying, to watch the race again, with an open mind, and tell me that I am wrong. If they watch the race, and agree with my conclusions, then maybe those of us who were not cognisant of this part of the method can all improve our understanding of the man and his methods.
For those who still doubt what I am pointing out, I suggest they read Racing In My System, up to the Roushayd part,and then think very carefully about the clear and unequivocal message therein.
Regards
Johnd.

Johnd

If I understand your post, you are suggesting that Masterful was, in effect, a non-trier today.

Are you suggesting that a Group winner running in a Listed race must be presumed to be a potential non-trier?