Fulham

Youi had me worried there for a while

Boozer

Yes, sorry about that. I got my As and Bs mixed up.

Mtoto - Regards Dibbinsdale Lad, my answer is the same as for good old Beacon Light - Viewing things from the VDW perspective they were not form horses relative to the race and opposition they were meeting. I know this appears to go against popular opinion and a good job too in my view because it will always prove the stumbling block for the masses. That is not mean't to sound selfish merely just conveying that if everyone thought the same then there would be no markets to speak of.

Barney - Zingari was the class/form horse in the race and a good bet to my mind. Again, don't get fooled by Regimental Dance or indeed Aries.

Boozer - The sort of example you gave Fulham has been tried in that format before on the board, but as pointed out at the time, you need far more info at hand than given. Given certain circumstances it is just as possible for horse A to be in form and the class/form horse.

Boozer,

It’s impossible to state who the class/form horse is given the information that you have presented.

It’s very likely that horse B will be the class/form horse but not necessarily. How classy was the horse that ‘A’ was beaten by? Also was that particular horse in form going in to the race? Just because it won its race, for instance, prior to meeting horse A doesn’t necessarily mean it was; what did it beat? How classy were the horses that finished behind ‘A’ LTO? and were they in form? Was ‘A’ receiving or giving weight in relation to ‘B’? The permutations are endless. Not too difficult though if one is able to look back over their records in order to calculate performances.

Now ask the same questions about horse B, and an answer should be forthcoming.

In order to have an opinion of who the class/form horse is in a race you need to know what to balance, and how.

thanks i got there in the end but it took some teasing out I can tell you.

Guest
It was only a simplistic example with no other factors involved and I am aware of the other factors

Fulham

I thought I knew what you was going to say and had an answer ready
I was wrong
but I will post this answer as if I did know what you were going to say

I will take you back to 1996 why 1996 cos its as far back as I can remember off the top of my head to a time nearest toVDW
Hazard a Guess ran 5th in the ebor a 58k race
He then contested a 3k D grade at newcastle and got up to win @4/1
Was the prizemoney big enough ?
Did his trainer waste the prepeparation that he must have had to try for the Ebor
No
He won a race for the owner
Did it thwart his future exploits in Hcps?
No because he was only put up 4lb’s for winning that consolation race

This year the trainer of Armagnac has done exactly the same thing again as he did last year.

The same thing that Guest said on another board that was tantamount to bucking the odds and just bringing home the bacon.

Chaz
I see what you say
But it was only a simplistic example
Lets say they both had the same sort of horses in front or behind etc

What were their respecive Class Ratings?

A £3000
B £12.000
no ability ratings

Chaz
it is no wonder that vdw followers come to different selections /conclusions for the same race

if it is as so complex as you say to determine Class/form horses

How come VDW says once you find it
(Call it the missing link if you like)
you will have the same horses as myself?

Guest.

Re Dibbinsdale Lad

I assesed the race not being sure of the result. When I did it I also remembered the maxim ' Watch what the trainer does next' In this case he took a 3 year old on the 31st of March, and ran it against older horses. Why? to give it a run, a prep race. It ran 2nd, a good run. Even if you say not in form, what about it's last 2 runs, are neither of those good enough for the race in question? He had won a race of better class (your way)

Zingari, I also made him the c/form horse. Barney maybe you should try my way I found it in about 30 seconds with no teasing. I do also wonder if Inside Quarter would fit my way, I haven't got the form book to try.

Chaz,

I can see the need to go into so much detail. Before you back a horse, but to find the c/form horse? After you've found it, it may not be the one you back. I just don't believe it is meant to be that complicated. I just find it, and then decide can it win? that takes long enough. I take my hat of to Guest if he can find 3 or more in a day.

Be Lucky

Guest,

You frequently make mention of horses showing a downturn when isolating the 'form' horses (a la Beacon Light).

Given that, could I ask your thoughts on another of VDW's examples, namely Celtic Pleasure in race 433, 21/04/1978, class 30.

Penultimate run (first of 1978 season) Celtic Pleasure won the Roseberry Handicap at Kempton, 10f, class 68, with a SF of 82. Raceform Comment '6th straight, led 1.5f out, all out'.

So far, so good.

Following this Celtic Pleasure(ability 42) was dropped in class to contest the Northern Handicap at Doncaster, 12f, class 20, where he started 7/4 favourite and was beaten 1l into 2nd place by Amber Valley (ability 10) with the comment 'looked well, 7th straight,
headway to challenge 2.5f out, onepaced below distance'. In this race he clocked a much reduced SF of 50.

Do you not see this see as a downturn in form?

Yes, Celtic Pleasure was going up in trip to 12f when beaten by Amber Valley but given that he finished 2nd btn 0.5l in the 12f November Handicap, class 87, (noted as ran on) at Doncaster on his final start of 1977, surely the 12f trip at the same track should have held no terrors in that class?

Do you perceive the 9:07 that Celtic Pleasure carried as being an acceptable reason for this defeat? Or are there other salient factors that I'm missing?

Your thoughts as usual appreciated.

Regards

To be honest I don’t do it, in the way that Guest does it, anymore. I don’t have the stamina that it takes nowadays! In practice though it isn’t as complicated as it first appears. I know that’s appears to be a contradiction but it’s not the practice of analysing the information that is draining, but the collation of the information that is needed to operate. I know from past chats with Guest that he has an ‘electronic’ form book, written by himself, that does the donkey work for him, far beyond the initial numerical picture.

The class/form horse, although not always backed, is still an extremely important part of the process and should always be isolated. It helps balance performances. We know that they don’t all win, but they are crucial to the workings of the methods.

Mtoto,

Is the class horse “your way” the horse that has the highest official rating? And therefore the Class/Form horse being the one with the highest OR that is in form?

Boozer - The point is, you can't determine the class/form horse based on only the info you gave so why attempt it?

Crock - The weight, regardless of what some think, does matter when treated relative to the race and opposition. Celtic Pleasure was clearly capable of winning decent relative class, in fact better class, to that he was running in race 433 and within a weight range particular to him. When he was dropped in class, it was over further (why?) and with a large weight against an in form horse who had just won a similiar class race with 8-12 by 6 lengths easily leading 4f out 5/2f. Was there an Amber Valley type in 433?

Note also that CP challenged AV but didn't actually get to the front for any significant period.

Mtoto - DL was dropped in class as you say fto with a lightweight so why didn't it fend off the winner under the conditions? Was extra weight likely to help it in the class/opposition next time?

crock,

a bit like zingari today but he won with his burden.

Guest.

I'm sorry, but what self respecting trainer would give a horse a 6lb penalty before running a horse in the target race? I don't think many trainers, or punters would expect a 3 year old to beat older horses at that time of the year. Are you saying neither of the other 2 runs were good enough if the last race is forgiven, like the Celtic Pleasure run. As I say I can't except he was out of form judged on that last run. One day I will find the s/f and I am happy to wager IQ fits my way.

Chaz.

OR's don't come into the way I find the c/form horse. As Guest and Barney keep telling me VDW didn't use them. I use them as a cross check, but a very important one. My c/form horse is found using s/f, as suggested by vdw, plus his filters. I have never seen the point of finding a c/form that can't be used, because it fails the filters. I must admit these discussions have helped me improve my technique, I just hope some of my ideas are of help to others.

Be Lucky

Guest,

Thanks for the response. I fully accept that Amber Valley was an improving horse that was obviously ahead of the handicapper. I also accept that a 12f run with 9:07 would help bring CP on but given his November Handicap run over the trip, I still see it as a bit of a downturn.

The specific weight range you mention is one that I haven't considered too much in this example, so I'll give that some more thought


Barney,

I'm afraid you've completely lost me, I can't see any similarity whatsoever between CP and Zingari today. Zingari's form shows a steady upward curve with no hint of a downturn (or an illusion of one). Would you care to elaborate?

Cheers

Mtoto,

If it helps any then previous sf prior to race 221, were as follows:

INSIDE QUARTER
58 - 8:08 - CLASS 20 NURSERY
34 - 9:01 - CLASS 34 2YO STAKES
61 - 8:11 - CLASS 11 2YO MDN
31 - 9:00 - CLASS 37 2YO MDN
31 - 8:11 - CLASS 11 2YO MDN
4 - 9:00 - CLASS 11 2YO MDN

DIBBINSDALE LAD
42 - 8:01 - CLASS AA H/CAP
49 - 8:13 - CLASS 36 NURSERY
28 - 7:10 - CLASS 39 NURSERY
48 - 8:04 - CLASS 36 NURSERY
52 - 9:00 - CLASS 11 2YO MDN
21 - 8:09 - CLASS 18 NURSERY
15 - 8:07 - CLASS 10 2YO MDN
0 - 9:00 - CLASS 20 2YO MDN
34 - 9:00 - CLASS 8 2YO MDN
16 - 9:00 - CLASS 10 2YO MDN
0 - 8:10 - CLASS 18 2YO MDN

Hope this helps

Cheers

If I may enter the debate about the c/f horse by using this years Cambridgeshire, upon which there were varying opinions: I will use only the method used for Roushayd/Desert Orchid to make it as simple and unambiguous as possible.

Beauchamp Pilot.
Asc cl.696 sf74
Yrk cl.877 sf89 ( highest class in race along with Kirovski and others).
Asc cl 121 sf92
Asc cl 225 sf94
Without any other information, BP performed well in the highest class, and then showed improvement ( Although only half marking his card) in his 2 subsequent races).
With basic form reading skills, it is entirely reasonable to assume, that given a better ride in his last race, he would have improved his s/f even more.
Without any further analysis, BP is the CLEAR c/f horse in the race, and anything that takes you down a different path, is surely just each individuals own interpretation!

I will try,

To improve a horse the trainer knows that a decent horse will have to carry weight and at some stage beyond handicaps will have to run on a level playing field.

With CP there are two possible views for his last run that either the trainer was masking his current form by running him in a race that weight permitting he could not win, or that in the race carrying more actual weight would maintain his current leval of fitness or even bring him on a bit more.

Sir mark prescott had in his hands a proficient looking 2yr old after two races, to really see if he could answer the questions when asked he put him down in grade over a longer trip with lots of extra weight knowing full well that the horse could fail or succeed and that test would have given him (if he didnt already know) a good yardstick to his real potential, alternatively he was not bothered whether he won that race or not but knew that the race over an uphill mile with lots of weight over further would bring him on enough ready for the slight step up in class.

Although non of the runs are top class tracks, yarmouth, brighton and pontefract, they are a good cross section of both fast and stiff and I think he could turn out to be a decent 10f horse and a likely winner at 12f in a lower grade.

All the time we should be asking ourselves why is the trainer placing this horse here.

Hope this helps