please give me your thoughts on norton, if you have time.

Norton is still improving, and you can ignore his last run, he wasn't serious, ( Even though I backed him).
There are a few things against him tomorrow though, first he likes a bit of cut, ( The times on Hunt Cup day suggest the official going is suspect ) The jockey booking raises a query, look who has ridden him for his wins; and Matt Doyle, who is very close to the stable, is all out for Zonergem tomorrow, to compound that he also gives an ew selection in the race, and it's not Norton. My gut feeling is that they think the grounds wrong.
I have waited weeks for Beauchamp P to run in this race, but, on checking the form again it looks at though he would be better for some rain.
Whatever happens, good luck.

Guest.

Re Valiant Warrior.

I found your ideas on this race very interesting. Especially that remark about no Unguided Missile, was this because he knew nothing of that class could run in the race (140 handicap)?

I had spent several hours looking at that race, and decided VW has on his list of horses to follow for that season. I have to take the 80+ s/f on trust, but he fulfilled the other criteria. Form figures of 12 or 21 and 2nd first run. As vdw liked to second guess trainers, I then looked to see where VW had been aimed in the previous season. He had been made favourite for the same race the year before, and run in the same race as he was 2nd in the year before. I don't know if he had been injured but he need a run before his target race. The race on the 3rd of Feb. was ideal, 2 horses that could not be in the next race, and Master Boston to judge fitness and form against. The change of jockey could be down to several reasons, injury, or the desire to cut down the dead weight. This isn't the only horse in the late list by vdw that was on a retrieving mission from the previous year. Arthur's Minstrel is the only one I can't find a reason to point a this race. Anyone any thoughts?

Be Lucky

Mtoto - A quick reply as I happened to be looking in as you posted.

VDW said that he went through the cards just to give an example, but explicitly for the day Rivage Bleu and Travado won. He then later gave a few more examples in a letter to Tony Peach including VW and AM and presumably had mentioned in the letter that he had sent out for a racing paper. I suspect that VDW was retired from full time winner finding by this stage, but probably keeping an interest nevertheless via form books and the papers,etc. Just my opinion I know, but he was very old by this time and quite ill.

Therefore he was unlikely to spend many hours study and was using shortcuts he had discovered to find those unexposed horses that he considered were really out to win. This is no doubt related to the easy cracking of the handicap he mentioned in Systematic Betting. But what were these shortcuts?

You may also remember him mentioning a method for finding good priced handicap hurdle winners, but like the best bet/next best method, he was very unforthcoming in his thinking behind their selection process. Study of his examples does reveal a fair bit of the puzzle, which he said was there for readers to solve knowing that they would relish the task. One factor in common with the handicap hurdle method and the handicap selections from best bet/next best is the handicap itself. In the main low weighted horses were obviously in form, but not so for those higher up the scale.

A busy day on Saturday, but I'll be posting something along the same lines as before at some stage.

Mtoto,I have listed what I have found to be definite selections,maybe not all vdw selections,but I am not experienced enough to tell.Indeed I listed one of your own selections,however I think,from your postings,and despite how little I know,that it was not a vdw type.It appears that you were prepared to overlook Desert Deer yesterday,and Firebreaker last week over the odds,and this leads me to believe that your selections are not vdw.
I am unaware how much time and effort people are putting in,except Guest,who obviously is.

The reason for the list,is so people can see at a glance,the horses,and if they so wish research them.There are a lot of new members on this site,and I hope it may assist any of those interested in vdw.I am sure for those inclined to study them,they will soon realise which are vdw types and which are not,and I don't mean just the winners,and indeed some of the winners don't fit the criteria either.

Pipedreamer


Well done.

I agree that just putting up the selections is fine. There are a lot there I would not have considered.

Also if I just post up

Canadiane - Chep 2.30 'good thing'

that doesn't mean I haven't spent an hour or more looking at that race, and I assume that the mechanics can be worked out by those interested.

I hope it stays at the forecast 13/8!

Chepstow 2.30 g/f NC 10.11 19.50 C
Horse wgt OR PM lto Ability Form Class Dist Pos run OR wgt Class Dist Pos run wgt Class Dist Pos run wgt
Canadiane 11-3 119 126 3.25 6.15 5.59 7.4 23.5 3 87 w3 111.0 11-6 4 20.0 1 81 sow 12-0 6.8 17.5 3 89 w3 12-0
Barton Saint 11-0 79 88 8.45 2.08 3.0 21.0 2 s 10-13 2.0 21.0 3 w3 11-0 2 25.0 5 18 w3 11-5
Cape Stormer 11-0 101 151 7.00 1.83 2.0 20.0 1 lc 10-12 2 16.0 5 11-0 2 19.0 2 11-1
Irish Fashion 11-0 109 222 3.60 11.20 4.97 3.4 16.0 4 w 11-10 5 16.5 3 112 op 11-2 10 16.0 6 109 w 10-0
La Landiere 11-0 107 3.50 9.55 3.42 4.0 20.0 1 s 10-9 3 16.0 2 86 nc 10-9 5.7 16.5 9 b2 11-10

Oh dear. I'll have to find another way of entering that

Two horses for today that are, in my opinion, really out to win.

1.40.Newm
Romany Prince

2.35 Sand
Secret Garden

Regards
Johnd

thank you for your trouble


regarding the list of VDW selections

I am sure that each individual who posts them is pretty sure that they are based on what each individual has gleaned from reading VDW's work therfore they are all VDW selections in one way or another. Identifying a selection for oneself as a vdw selection is no guarantee that the others are not.

on a general point, I am sure that this has been brought up before but I cannot remember the answers.

Did VDW give any sprint examples? ie 5,6,7f.

I have spent a little time looking at the form for the "Arc", and this may put the cat amongst the pigeons, but Islington has an awful lot going for her, and on her York win, she has enormous potential to improve even more.

thanks for the reply jd nice pun, know stoute has differnt plans for golan but he still had the option of running him at longchamp where he was 4th in last years race but they send him to japan instead, islington & golan are under the same ownership, they are sending her here, can only assume they think her capable of placing at least, she looks to be improving also & the form of her latest win has been rubber stamped, nice spot.

Barney - VDW did give a few sprint examples. One was in Systematic Betting Abathatc and another was Soaf winning a Newmarket nursery. He also pinpointed Vaigly Great in April 79 at Newmarket.

Busy day again today.

Newmarket 3.55

Horses upto 33/1 in the bfc

Zonergem...........7*.....191*....109.....85
Funfair...........11......198*....112.....80
Beauchamp Pilot....9*......75.....113.....94*
Lady Bear..........5*.....111.....122*....82
Far Lane..........10.......44.....121*....81
Kirovski..........10......126*....116....101*
Persian Lass.......9*......47.....120.....76
Nashaab...........14.......63.....117.....85
Atlantic Ace......11.......70.....115.....79
Counsels Opinion...8.......65.....114.....88
Champion Lodge....10......114.....112.....81
Chivalry..........(5)......39.....113.....68
I Cried For You...18......145*....115.....87

Class/form horse Kirovski and 2nd c/f Lady Bear should prove a dynamic duo. Far Lane has been brought along nicely for the race also and at the prices I'll be backing all 3 horses.

Newmarket 3.15

Fallen Star........8*.....133*....123.....87*
Zuleika Dobson.....9.......43.....114.....69
Chorist............9*.....108.....124*....86
Dolores............8*.....176*....124*....82
Dress To Thrill....3*.....268*....127*....91*
Mamounia..........(6).....108.....119.....64
Mexican Hawk......(5)......34.....102.....40
Miss Pinkerton.....7......110*....119.....73
Mythic.............8.......37.....119.....60
Spinette..........13.......68.....104.....74

Dress To Thrill is the clear class/form horse and looks a good thing to win again. A true odds on chance in my view.

Curragh 3.45


Anna Frid.........12.......76*....116*....60*
Atomic Cat........16.......74......77......0
Bella Mi Amore
Breeze Hill.......12........0......81......0
Cat Belling.......20.......80*....111*....54
Dame Alicia.......(9).......0......92.....51
Feabhas............5*.....123*.....99.....19
Finity.............6*......76*....105......0
Ladys Mantle......12.......80*....104.....53
Prescient
Rag Top............9*.....139*....111*....69*
Shes A Beauty
Tango Cat
Valhalla Moon 21........0.......0......0

The 2 with the best form so far are Cat Belling and Feabhas, but they don't look like winners in a race. It will be no surprise to see Shes A Beauty make a winning debut, but a race to leave.

Curragh 4.45

Sights On Gold.....6*.....144*....124*....84*
Smugglers Song.....6*.....136*....115.....58
Crimphill.........16.......72.....118.....65
Masnada...........15.......91.....116.....88*
Miss Honorine......9*.....160*....118.....69
Mkuzi..............6*.....122*....122.....84*
Nysaean............6*......80.....126*....77
Chartres..........13.......72......82.....49
Phariseek.........14.......64.....117.....70

Class/form horse Sights On Gold gets support in all the right areas and the fc fav should insure a decent price. A good thing by VDW calculations.

Chepstow 3.30

Run For Paddy......3*......49.....111......0
Village King......10.......55*....148.....78
General Claremont..9*(5?)..47.....161*....93
Twisted Logic.....17.......51*....155....103*
Flaxley Wood.......7*......51*....138.....98*
Prancing Blade.....7*......52*....140.....90
Lucky Clover......(7)......80*....161*....58
Gaysun............(7)......40.....153.....80
Swansea Bay........3*......44.....141.....87

Village King is class/form though lacking support in other areas and has been off the course since April. 2nd on class/form General Claremont does have support ratings wise and was out of it's depth last time. He looks the most likely winner.

Chepstow 2.30

Canadiane..........7*......37*....139*....96*
Barton Saint......10*.......0.....102......0
Cape Stormer.......8*......26*......0......0
Irish Fashion.....13.......26*......0......0
La Landiere.......12.......39*....128*....86*

Canadiane looks a false fav to me and either Cape Stormer or La Landiere will probably win, but not a race to bet in given the available form.

Sandown 2.25

My Raggedy Man....20.......50*....102.....78*
Moayed............15.......78*....100.....43
Perfect Storm.....15.......43.....102.....64
Ashkelon..........13*......43......96.....72*
Mulabee...........15.......32......84.....42
Allenby...........19.......53*....100.....61
Secret Garden......7*......47*.....95.....71
Joint Statement....5*......44.....102.....68
Groovy............12(7?)...52*.....92.....52
Able Baker Charlie.5*......36.....106*....68
Clipperton........11.......32.....104*....62

Nothing exciting here formwise, though of the consistent horses Able Baker Charlie probably holds the best chance. A race to leave.

3 bets then today with the trio in the Cambridgeshire, Dress To Thrill in the Sun Chariot and Sights On Gold at the Curragh.

Have a good day all.

according to RP 5 out of last 10 winners have carried a 5lb penalty.

AA, CO, and LB

Guest goes for K, LB and FL

common denominator is

LADY BEAR to win

easy init!!

resplendant cee
roses of spring

I cant see Resplendent Cee as worth a bet.

Well done.

Barney

On a no betting day for me as I havent had much time

Roses looks the better bet IF she traps well and leads
3/1 and I would be tempted

WRONG
Glad I didnt bother