Maggsy/Mtoto/Investor - I use a variation on VDWs staking method which takes into account the price of the next bet. Basically it works on the same retrieval basis but there is no need to have over and above that required if the next horse you back is 5/1 chance for example. You have to set a ceiling on the maximum stake also just in case things go badly wrong. Staking will only prove a problem if you have insufficient funds to counter a poor run or you try and force your way out of trouble.

Mtoto - the easy cracking of the handicap was referred to in Systematic Betting I think. How did you view Athenian today ?

Guest

Re "the easy cracking of the handicap", I noticed that you'd used that phrase in an earlier post, attributing it to "Systematic Betting". I had another check through SB and concluded that you must have been referring to the Roushayd sections, but couldn't find the actual phrase.

Then, yesterday, I happened to read the "Conclusion" on p. 48, and low and behold, there the phrase appears:

"A publication of this size does not allow more than the scratching of the surface. The deeper evaluation of form alone cannot be fully covered in its limitations and only the obvious exposed form can be illustrated. The hidden form and the somewhat devious tactics employed by some trainers needs considerable space as indeed does the easy cracking of the handicap ...."

Guest.

None of the races today were of enough class for me to even have a good look at them. I spent a quite day going through some of the old examples. I can now see why Fulham asked the question the other day. In Inside Quarter's race I can get past March Spark, I can't get past Dibbinsdale Lad. I make DL the c/form horse and I can't find a good reason to go against him. He's fit, in form, highest ability rating (your way) won a race of this class. I just can't see it. Any chance of a hint?

Athenian.

Now you have pointed it out. I could/would make him a qualifier under the Roushayd method, although I expect you would disagree. He also passes my filters, I wouldn't put money on him because he lacks class. I can see he has class relevant to the rest of the runners, but that just makes him the best of a bad bunch. If you backed him well done. One of the members of this board keeps telling me I should be looking at the weaker races. I can't bring myself to risk money on these horses, they are too in and out for me.

Cracking the handicap.

I'm sure some of the members will love this, plenty of conspiracy theory. Trouble is how do you sort out what is real, and what is just in the mind. Think I will stick with the form book, and try to find the illusions of form.

Be Lucky

How is it that choosing to bet in a 35 runner handicap doesn't come into the catagory of putting the odds against the backer?
Why has nobody commented on Statajack's remark that Guest doesn't know how to identify, VDW style, the class/form horse?

I can see why athenian would have been considered,But would be very surprised if you backed it,After the price it won at lto.

The break did it a world of good.


Does anyone fancy exploring the conflicting aspects of class and form in the 230 catterick?

if your not too busy knitting

remember larousse two weeks ago? hes back in trip today!

The difference between pure VDW and the less pure like myself are the races chosen to bet in.
While guest appears to be pure VDW I would suspect that is not entirely the case judging by some of the horses mentioned like Proud Native in a claimer.

I personally think finding the winners of high class handicaps and Group races is far more difficult than finding a “winner in the race” of a bum race.

Races with poor opposition are easier to win
I only considered one horse yesterday for a potential bet
Azur in the last at ponte.
I dismissed him as not being good enough for a bet
Bigger fool me



The Big weight hikes from one race to another when a horse is placed this way doesnt frighten me
And in 35 years I have seen no evidence to suggest it should

[This message was edited by boozer on October 08, 2002 at 10:29 AM.]

Barney
I assume you're talking about the 3:30 at Catterick, are you suggesting that Larousse is likely to win it?

Boozer
If your post is a reply to my first question, thanks. I understand the logic behind choosing higher class races but I think the word is being followed too literally if the followers feel compelled to concentrate their efforts on races as ridiculous as the one mentioned.

epi,


i noted this horse a couple of weeks ago as having a few tricks put into it and by the way it was going its trying hard to get there. lto was blatently the wrong trip and the time before that, you have to go back a bit further but it has the ability for this and I believe that the form displayed recently is to prepare it for a win. Today may be an attempt to put a bit more into it but i will take the chance at 12/1.

Good luck, personally I'd be surprised if it even gets placed.

and what makes you think that Epi?

By my reading of the race the following horses, in order of preference, have a better chance than Larousse.
Keep Ikis
Rousing Thunder
Flash Of Memory
Ela Jay
Sangita
Rebelle
None of these is in itself convincing never the less between them they constitute half the field, if my reading of the race is only half correct the best that Larousse could achieve would be 4th.

lets get to the nitty gritty!

based on what?

Based on my method of assessing a horse's worthiness as a selection for a bet.

Ah well I thought we were going to be constuctive

Never mind!

When somebody explains the workings of VDW, which is after all second-hand thinking, I will consider making a full explanation of the methods I have developed myself.

Epiglotis
Nobody with any sense is going to spell out
how the VDW Methods work.If they become public
knowledge you run the risk that to many people
would use them and the prices would become to
short to make it pay.Although how many would really put in the hard work is debatable.I have winning methods
that i use that have taken years to find and
alot of hard work.You have to bet against
the crowd to win at this game.I don`t blame
Guest or anyone else for not spelling in out.
If anyone really wants to make this game pay
they will if they really want it bad enough
and have the right temprement.



Maggsy

This is without doubt the lowest class race larouse has contested in his last dozen outings bar 1
Having said that he his not clear enough relative to the oppostion on Class/form to make him a winner in a race.
There are others with Better FORM but lower in the Class department such as Rousing Thunder.

Hard to assess the form of Larouse’s Last race as it was a dawdle early on, If it had been a decent pace a bit higher class and Larouse had come with every chance at the furlong marker then this slight drop in trip would have been just the job.

Even so the difference it makes when a horse is dropped in class from a seemingly struggling performance in a higher class race can be quite astounding , and it would be no surprise to me to see larouse win this

The only other one I have looked at today is Garw Valley in the 4-30
But once again hes not good enough.

Will have a 2 quid double on the pair just for interest
Such is the confidence

that galleaon beach is a bloody fast horse at 2m

no wonder he couldnt keep up with him

and he did show at todays distance.


looks like Im buiding him up as a cert but i'm not I think hes a chance and is placed to win and at 12/1 is value against these