Looking at larousse's form, it would seem that every time they have run it over this kind of trip it has pulled too hard, hence the 10f & 12f races to get it to settle.
Lto, however, they did actually manage to settle the horse, but the stiff 17f proved too much for it. Today it is dropped significantly in class, over a sharp 2m, and if they can manage to settle it again, he should run a very big race. Just my way of reading the form but there is certainly a case for saying this horse has been placed to win today.
Good luck.

Epiglotis.

Too try and answer some of your points,

I may be wrong but I didn't think Statajack, ever queried Guest's ability to find the c/form horse. If I'm wrong I apologise, I thought the concern was the apparent lack of backing the horse up with other data. I think Guest has now shown he does use other data. He may not use it with the same emphasis as vdw, who seemed to concentrate only on the top 2 in the other ratings.

Going against the odds,

VDW used more than a few examples of races with many runners. Lincoln's, Cambridgeshire's, and even Grand Nationals. The races that are not used often are sprints and for 2 year olds. I think the form in the bigger races works out better, because the races are run at a true pace. Even if the trainer is tilting at windmills, the horses are usually fit and trying. Why pay a big entry fee if you are just trying the horse out? I'm no genius, but most of my best wins are in the bigger races. To me on Saturday there may have been 35 runners but my c/form horses finished 1st and 5th. I made the favourite and Lady Bear outclassed.

Barony.

I wish you luck with Larousse, but there is no way I would even consider putting hard earned on it. Positives, it has won a race of this class, and is dropping in true class big time. Negatives, is well out of form (for me), all the best? form has been on stiff right handed tracks. If I was looking for a plot, I would say this is just a run to help cloud the form (illusion). I can't think what race, or meeting the horse is going to be aimed at. If in fact it is, this may just be the last chance saloon. Any way good luck, something as to win it, hope it's you!

Be Lucky

[This message was edited by Mtoto on October 08, 2002 at 01:21 PM.]

[This message was edited by Mtoto on October 08, 2002 at 01:23 PM.]

Thank you for your Much Valued input.

Barney/Barony

Galleon beach is no doubt a fast Horse as you say
But in Larouses last race GB won it in 12.37secs slow SF 84 on hard ground
Now that is sloooow even if it is 2m plus.
If it had been run faster maybe Larouse would have shown up a lot better or worse Who can say
He was only 3 lengths down in that race at today’s distance though
But again it was slow

A bit of excitement for the afternoon anyway
I am quite looking forward to the race now on what otherwise would have been a dull afternoon.

LOL.


there are two flies on my window, one looks a cert to me, now which will take off first.

The 12/1 shot
I only got 10's

wish I hadnt got anything now

Maggsy
I understand the arguements for not spelling it out, such arguements apply equally to my own approach and naturally I am not going to explain what I consider to be my original thought to those who refuse to explain what they have gleaned from VDW i.e. unoriginal thought.

Mtoto
See Statajack's post of September 01, 2002 09:22 PM (page 213). Congratulations on finding the winner in the Cambridgeshire, I'm not suggesting it's impossible but I think it's a way of increasing your difficulties. The considerations in this sentence, "Even if the trainer is tilting at windmills, the horses are usually fit and trying. Why pay a big entry fee if you are just trying the horse out?", surely apply to all the entrants thus do not ease your task. I understand that your views on value and strike rate differ from Guest's so to some extent my question about this race isn't directed at you.

Thank you both for replying.

Epiglotis

I don't think Statajack's post means what you have interpreted it to mean. He certainly took issue with three horses Guest had identified as selections, but that is far removed from the criticism of not being able properly to identify the class/form horse.

Some of Guest's (and other followers of VDW's approach) selections are not class/form horses (a classic was Flagship Uberalles at the Cheltenham Festival), and some of those that are c/fs lose. There is analysis to be done after the c/f has been identified, and this almost invariably involves deciding that possible contra-indications can safely be discounted. We can - and do - all get this latter wrong from time to time.

Thanks for the reply. As I am yet to understand what is meant by the class/form horse I appear to have missed the relevance of the so called 'missing link'. If the missing link is not used in deciding the class/form horse yet would ensure that the students were in agreement with VDW on the selection am I to conclude that the class/form story is of a dubiousness equal to that of the ability rating? Or is the missing link another of the "cross checks"?

Epiglotis

Among my associates there are differences of view as to what, precisely, VDW meant by "the missing link".

Personally, I believe he meant how one assessed whether a horse was in, or out, of form for a given race, something VDW never spelt out very explicitly, but expected people to find by examination of his examples, and in some of these it is reasonably explicit.

The class/form horse is essentially the in form horse with the highest ability rating (and VDW did, of course, spell out explicitly how to calculate the ability rating, and an alternative for use with younger horses).

VDW stated that "to isolate the "class/form" horse can often prove a tricky problem". Given that the ability element of the nexus is (virtually) a simple, objective procedure, the inference is clear - its the assessment of "in formness" that can be tricky.

And that this is the case can easily be exemplified. Among the horses VDW explicitly named as class/form horses are Gaye Chance (18th lto) and Beat the Retreat (fell lto). Among the horses VDW explicitly said were out of form was Homeson (won lto).

In some cases, the class/form horse is so evident that no one who has any real understanding of VDW's approach could fail to name it. But, as the quote from VDW implies, in other cases matters are far from straightforward, and (I believe) there is legitimate scope for differences in view.

For example, regarding Saturday's Cambridgeshire, Guest gave Kirovski as the class/form horse and Lady Bear as the second class/form horse. A subsequent post suggested that, upon reflection, Guest might have re-considered his judgement regarding the latter. Personally I had the same class/form horse, but differed as regards the second c/f. The point is that in circumstances such as Saturday's, "in formness" is a matter of judgement, not objective fact - though of course judgement within some fairly tightly drawn limits.

Perhaps we should stick to the flies.
But then again, is Docklands Maximus, 2.30 Ling. tomorrow, a sore thumb?

Fulham

Would you agree with the following simplistic example
A 2 horse race
Just working on Lto and we will use Prizemoney as the indicator Not Ability ratings which I don’t like not on the flat anyway

Previous run
Horse A £3000 Hcp 7f
Every chance 1f out ran on bt ½ length

Horse B £12000 Hcp 7f
Every chance 1f out ran on bt ½ length

Yes I know its not that simple or easy but tis just basic without any other factors involved.

Horse A Form horse
Horse B Class/Form Horse

And I am not Being Patronising



Form is what they did
Class is the level at which it was achieved

I am a bit embarassed to post this I must admit
But I have

Do you see Class/Form horses as only based on Abilty ratings?

thanks for the pointer johnd!

Boozer

You leave out one absolutely essential piece of information. The value of the race A and B are contesting. From my perspective, without that I can't offer a view.

Fulham

Not at all
VDW didnt have that problem with a race like Brashee's

Fulham

Ok I see what you mean
Its a £20,000 Handicap then

Boozer

If it was literally a 2 horse race, on the facts as presented I would regard horse B as in form and, as the only in form horse, the class/form horse, and horse A as out of form. But I can conceive of circumstances where, in the light of the additional information that is ordinarily available, I would reach a different conclusion.

As to your more general question, as explained in my comment to Epiglotis, my understanding of the notion of the "class/form" horse involves two elements. Although there has been some criticism of VDW's ability rating, most persuasively by Mtoto, I think its well tried, and by me trusted, so that is what I use, though in 3yo races, especially in the first half of the season, I also use the alternative, sf-based, ability rating VDW suggested.

what was the c/f horse today in the 230?

Fulham

I had to spin back to see my own simple example
But if you havent got me wrong
I think that is a very strange way of interpreting
Class/form
could you expand

Youve just edited
Thank god for that