JohnD - There are a number of ways, as ever in racing, to look at things. You have put your point of view across and I agree with some parts, but on the whole I think the major problems with Masterful which were there before the race came down to his form and more importantly his recent form. The group 2 he won was, as you point out, run on soft ground and the 2nd horse hadn't been out for a while, though a decent enough animal. That was over a year ago though. On his first run for Godolphin he reappears in a minor 3 runner race, leads 2f out but can't fend off Umistim. Even allowing for needing a run, it was a negative in context of todays race and runners.

What happens next as VDW might say? We don't see the horse until today, up in class and back in trip, but against one or two in better recent form. Desert Deer had a mid season break, came back in a listed race at York but failed, however he went up in class shortly after and was just caught close home by an in form decent horse. The trainer then put him in a lesser race, but still up against a decent in form horse. He won emphatically giving weight as the market suggested. So then up again in class, but not as high as Doncaster. The mechanical part gave him lots of pluses also.

In my view, having watched the race a few times, all I see is DDs acceleration catching most of the contenders out. In fact they were all off the bridle and ridden to get into the race. VDW said that a horse who noticably improves to make a race of it in the last few furlongs should be duly noted, but this has to go hand in hand with the class and form of the others also involved. Look at things from VDWs way when studying past runs and things will be clearer.

Of course this is just VDWs way and I admit there are many ways to skin a cat. But it is hard to be jack of all trades and I prefer to concentrate on one basic approach where class and form is concerned. A few in the know via other means were on Oasis Dream today, but these guys "in the know" leave the cash behind as often as us.

Hi guys
From the mechanical part of VDW's method I made it Masterful in the 2-15.
In the 2-50 I had it between Elusive City and Zafeen.
In my case a vdw quote springs to mind "If you fail to achieve a minimum of 80% success evaluate your reading of form".LOL

Guest
Well done with Desert Deer.
Did not D.D deviate slightly in the mechanical part of the method ?
I only ask from a puzzled point of view.

Chris B - As I have said before, the mechanical part is only straightforward when the form is there in support. DD had the speed and the form to back it up. The ability rating was just behind a few, but when you look at what he had been running against and laterly beating then it was clear he was better than his rating implied.

Day 3 of the Cambridgeshire meeting has 3 races worth looking at via the consistency method.

Newmarket 2.50

Airwave................6*.....99*.....110......56
Bella Tusa.............3*....117*.....120*.....70
Danaskaya..............9......80......120*.....81*
Ego....................7*.....67......117......62
Russian Rhythm.........3*....271*.....120*.....89*
Wimple................(7).....84......116......75

No doubting the class/form horse here and all the evidence points to Russian Rhythm maintaining her unbeaten record. I would want 4/6 or better but she rates a 4/1 on chance.

Newmarket 1.45

Hannibal Lad..........23*....115*.....125*.....78*
Mutakarrim............10*.....79......121......75
Storming Home.........11*....325*.....135*.....93*
Sunny Glenn...........24......35........0.......0

A major surprise here if the class/form horse Storming Home doesn't do just that. I can't see the odds being acceptable but in the strange event of him being 4/6 or better I would get involved.

Newmarket 2.15

Smokin Beau..........10*(5?).156*.....128*....104*
Absent Friends.......(5)......72......111......82
Funny Valentine......16*......37.......94.......0
Autumnal.............17*(11?).99*.....119......81
Massarra.............17*(10?).80......112......67
Proud Boast..........25......107*.....121*.....95*

Again little doubt about who the class/form horse is and when you chuck in the form of his previous race along with the ratings support and the course, it will again be surprising if this one doesn't deliver. A true odds on chance again, but I would want better than 4/6 to play.




Hexham 3.10

Press To Sting........20......45*......99*.....12
Hailstorm..............8*.....37*......94......27
Silent Snipe..........15......30*......91......76*
Sir Williamwallace....11*.....34*......73.......4
Jonaem.................6*.....29......106*.....62*
Kings Minstral........17......29.......87......56
Supreme Silence.......18......24.......91.......0

Not an inspiring race at all though there are least negatives about the class/form horse Hailstorm than the others. Jonaem gets some ratings support but the best move is to leave the race well alone.

Fairyhouse 4.00

Yellow Bog Common.....15.....104*......87......13
Elbeos Dream..........22......58*......92.......0
Triple Gold............8*.....67*.....101*.....57*
Fortune...............20......51.......69.......0
Hadath................26......58*......92......68*
Irish Style...........15......47.......99*.....32
Peace Angel............5*.....55*......99*.....28
Marko Jadeo...........13......51.......81......39
Portant Fella..........7*.....42.......88......30
Crafty Eyed...........23.......0.......97.......0
Side With Me..........18.......0.......97.......0
Gan Eagla.............20.......0.......85.......0

There is a possability of making a book here with Triple Gold,Irish Style and Peace Angel though I would want at least evens the trio for my money.

Lingfield 4.10

This race doesn't hold any real consistency but for info the top ratings are....

Top 4 ability
Sophies Symphony.....58
Jakeal...............53
Distant Diva.........45
Millenium King.......40

Top 4 HCP ratings
Jakeal...............86
Pheckless............86
Pants................83
White Cliffs.........82
Shoof................82
Cast iron............82

Top 4 Speed
Harbour Island.......65
Creskeld.............63
Jakeal...............62
White Cliffs.........61

Queston 1
Yes, look at how he was ridden in his gp2 win, and how he was ridden in his two races this season, and tell me different.
Question 2
Why does a horse that has won a gp2 need to win a listed race? Stud value? Prize Money?

GUEST
Same questions as Fulham, but can you deny that he was making ground at the end of the race, looking for all the world like at 10f horse?

FULHAM/GUEST
I have the greatest of respect for both of you, but neither of you gave a reason or a rationale for the passage in Racing In My System that I highlighted. I recognise that your interpretation may be totally different to mine, and that we all started from different places, and at different times, but as this is probably the last DETAILED explanation that VDW wrote, I may be correct in construing it as the most important.

Johnd.

I hope Fulham and Guest don't mind me joining in, I was going to answer your previous post but they beat me to it.

Question 1

Are you forgetting he has had only 1 run in a year? There must have been a reason for that. In his first run it said backward, are you going to give a good horse a very hard race first time out? Today I thought he was given a very good ride. The ground and possibly the distance was against him. They knew the race would be run at a good pace, and the leaders could blow up. The horse they all had to beat (DD) has run it's best races on flat galloping tracks. The wins on stiff tracks where against much weaker opposition. If the favourite had a flaw it would be getting up the hill in a fast run race. I backed Sohaib for that very reason. I don't think there was any other way to ride him, he would not have gone the pace, and finished as well as he did.

Question 2

He doesn't, but he needs race fitness. What harm would it have done to future races to win that race? I think this is a horse it could pay to watch what the trainer does next. Back over 10f and going with a little give, could work wonders! It won't bother the trainer/owners that they have shown their hand. The horse is now fit enough to go to war with, that is all they are worried about.

Be Lucky

Guest, like yourself I am quite taken with SMOKIN BEAU, besides having the best form in the race the next best (and 2nd fc fav) has not been the same horse since injury last year. Of the others, none shows the least evidence of being a danger. As tomorrows conditions are currently close to ideal for SMOKIN BEAU I would be reckless enough to suggest that it is 2nd best bet of the season, Spinette having been outstanding. JIB

Johnd

Thanks. I wanted to make sure that I properly understood you before offering a substantive comment.

I may, of course, have reason to revise my views after the Panorama programme but I doubt that there is any/much deliberate non-trying in better class races. (Which, although I don't think he ever made this aspect absolutely explicit, is, I suspect, in part why VDW recommended focusing on such races.) And I think that the answers to both the specific race yesterday, and the more general point you've raised, are more straightforward than you suppose.

As regards the 2.15 Newmarket yesterday, when I analysed it I judged that, given its class, there were four form horses among the first six in the Post's forecast, leaving two (Tikhun and Masterful) currently not in form to win such a race. Thus for me the question was whether one of the four (this was before the withdrawal of Umistim) was a probable winner, and it was not difficult to reach the right conclusion. (The c/f's class was suspect and he was running over the wrong trip. Desert Deer had the clear beating of Umistim and Calcutta at the weights on recent runs.) Had either T or M won, it would have been a major surprise to me, and one of the 30% of races which, if I've understood Guest correctly, are not won by form horses.

Turning to your more general point, the sentence you quote is, in my view, best construed in relation to another passage in the same booklet (on page 6 in my version), where VDW says (apropos of studying entries):

"There were always horses I knew, or judged, to be at peak and ready to win. How they were placed could give the game away. What a lot of punters don't seem to appreciate is that in any race the majority of horses are not there to win, but to prepare them to win."

To my mind, this reflects the reality of racing. In any given race, while nearly all the trainers would be delighted if their horses won, in their hearts they are not expecting them to do so. Why? For any of a whole host of reasons including that their horses may not be at absolutely peak fitness, the conditions may not be wholly right (distance, going, nature of course, etc), or because they can see that there are even better horses in the race. But this does not mean that the trainers are "fiddling" (though I accept that, especially in lower class races, some may be). Rather, they are trying both to learn about their horses, and to bring them on, so that in due course they can be placed where they have the best possible chance of winning.

The message I think VDW was giving us was learn how to read when a horse is being placed to best advantage, ie is at his peak and placed in ideal conditions. The Prominent King and Roushayd examples were case-studies in doing this. It was reasonable to conclude from the evidence in the Form Book that, by the time of 1978 Erin and 1988 Old Newton Cup, respectively, the trainers had these horses at or very near peak fitness and placed in races that they could, realistically, win. They were therefore potential winners in their races and, in the absence of other in form horses with the necessary ability, good bets. But unless I'm being very naive, there is no implication that in Prominent King's first two runs of the 1977/8 season, or Roushayd's first three in 1988, the horses were non-triers.

well then what a race for desert deer

three people who I am sure most people think know their onions come up with three different selections in an eight runner affair.

Johnd,

I think you are right with regards racing in my system, the best roushayd version. With regard to masterfull I think he came into this race out of form but is now in form and we should watch how he is next placed.

Soahib on the initial numerical picture is in form but we have to remember that "the class of the horse is not the same as the class of race in which it competes"


wouldn,t it be nice with all that before the race.

I am looking for one with hidden form today see you later.

pre race discussion anyone?

using the same type of analysis as for masterful yesterday storming home should have won his last race so why is he a bet today?

JohnD - The book referred to "Racing In My System" contains some very revealing comments made by VDW in his later life. Some of these more controversial views he put forward were obviously done so finally because he felt it save to voice his views on the stranger side of racing. He talked about unexposed form and spotting the different ways in which horses are readied to win.

Take a horse such as Valiant Warrior who won on the 17th Feb 1996 when VDW described him as the best bet of the day. He had run 3 times that season. First time out against Master Boston giving that a horse a pound he led some way out before headed nearing the last but kept on to be beaten a length and a half over 2m 4 1/2f class 47 at Wetherby on 2nd Dec 95. Master Boston had already been out last time finishing 2nd class 45 and was favourite at Wetherby.

Two weeks later at Haydock 2m 4f class 50 the same two horses met again at effectively level weights with MB coming out on top again by the same margin although VW never got to the front this time. What happened next ?

VW had 49 days off the track before coming back in class 103 at Wetherby 2m 4 1/2f carrying 10-2 and a different non claiming jockey, opened 4/1 but out to 5s. He chased leaders but outpaced 4 out beaten nearly 23 lengths by Unguide Missile 5/2f and Strong Deel 33/1 (behind VW on previous run). Unguide Missile had previously run 2nd class 123. Two weeks later and VW is sent for the class 109 2m 4f race at Newcastle. Most punters would see him as out of form on his last run. Another way to look at it is to say he showed good form on his first two runs but for some reason needed 6 weeks rest before being sent for a much better race class and opposition wise. Something the trainer could be certain of was that there was no Unguide Missile in the race. He also knew the likely drop needed to virtually be sure of lesser opposition. Why change to another unclaiming jockey also?

At the end of the day, all of the selections given by VDW outside of the consistency method had one thing in common. The class of horse against which they raced along with the class of race was carefully monitored so as to establish real form. Common World might have been tilting at windmills in the Irish Champion stakes but there was no fluke about his previous form. Was there a Common World in the race yesterday?

Barney - Same question really. Is there a Systematic or a Golan or a Zindabad in the 1.45 today?

Thanks for replying I appreciate he's still in form and that the actual leval of opposition is not the same as what masterful was trying to achieve yesterday. but he still should have won last time

where had the whistling teal been and what had he done?not much really.

September
19- Unleash l-4/1
Ballyconnel l-4/5
Smart Host/Sisal l-4/1 l-14/1
20- Zafeen w-8/11
Suggestive l-5/2
Give A Whistle w-1/1
21-Lady Bear/Capt V W-16/1 l-12/1
Muchea w-13/2
Perfect Touch l-11/8
Mkuzi w-4/9
Royal Millenium l-11/1
Derek's Pride w-3/1
Cepangie w-7/4
22-Roses of Spring w-9/2
Be My Tinker l-3/1
24-Henry Hall l-8/1
27-Love Ever/Treb Hts w-8/1 l-5/4
28-Van Nistlerooy l-7/4
Malhub/B.Pir/3pts l-9/2 l-10/1 l-9/2
Hawk Wing l-1/2
Shersha l-5/2
Vatirisk l-11/10
Hawkwind l-7/4
29-Systematic w-1/2
Scott's View w-11/2
30-Masiheda l-15/8
Lexis Hoss/Night M l----

Though I couldn't put him up as a solid selection, Silence Is Golden 3.25 Newm has been messed about with quite a lot since his win in a very similar race to this.

hi johnd,

hes the one with all the rings for me as well. All the form horses,numerically, are well up in class.

that don fernando is still doing my head in, though how much improvement could pipe get in in two weeks? Why is frankie on it again after a stunning last?

Guest

I've been looking again at one or two of the examples VDW gave in his "No Magic Formula" letter, published 24 May 1979 (item 20 in "The Golden Years"), especially Inside Quarter and Lyphard's Wish, and it occurred to me that I might conceivably be studying the wrong races.

I've assumed that the races for which VDW named them "good things" were on 16 April 1979, and I see from your post of 10.45pm 10 June last that, at least as regards Inside Quarter, you've assumed the same. And there is some support for this assumption with the likes of Hawaiian Sound, Lyric Dance, Drumlerry and Quickapenny, all named in the same paragraph, whose wins could only have been in mid April 1979.

However, I've noticed that, theoretically, that "No Magic Formula" letter, published on 24 May 1979, could have been written immediately after Lyphard's Wish's win on 16 May and Inside Quarter's the following day. And similar circumstances obtain for Pragmatic (who won in twice in May as well as in mid April), Vaigly Great and One in a Million.

I'd be grateful to know whether you assume that, in his "No Magic Formula", VDW was referring to all these horses' wins in mid April 1979.

Fulham - I too thought at one point that maybe the horses were spread out over a few weeks, but if you collate them all in the period and check the form, it is virtually certain they were all selected over the 4 day period in April during the Craven meeting and the Cheltenham meeting.

Inside Quarter is interesting because it could be said that March Spark was a live danger. In fact it was very close at the finish. Drumlerrys race was also an eye opener as Stopped was overlooked, in my view as being out of form. Drumlerry was allowed the 3rd because it was first time over fences against more experienced and fancied rivals.

Today highlighted a few points. The first being that appraising the real odds and setting your price is vital. Obviously I left Smokin Beau at the price, but took Storming Home and Russian Rhythm. I was also pleasantly surprised at the odds available for my Fairyhouse trio and a good profit was made on the day making 3 out 5 winning bets on the week so far.

The second point was regarding ratings support and it was interesting that my ratings erred on the side of caution with Russian Rhythm who was co top on 120. Other ratings had her well clear though and the form stood up. Airwave has obviously improved leaps and bounds, but again this is just one scenario that prevents total success.

The other point is regarding the pundits again. Flicking between various coverage of Newmarket today I found it interesting and a bit unbelievable that so many were making derogatory remarks about Storming Home because he hadn't won a race this season. Relative to todays race his form was outstanding and as I said last night, I was expecting the horse to be more like the eventual price Smokin Beau went off at and unbackable. By contrast they all agreed Smokin Beau was a lay down and similiar for Russian Rhythm. When we all agree it really is the kiss of death in racing because, in the main, the flock are regularly led to the slaughter.

Thank you all for your detailed replies to my posting of yesterday, but in truth I feel that none of you has given an adequate answer to the fundamental question, why was a horse who showed his best form when making all, held up in his 2 races this season?
Mtoto did address this question, and his answer may well be correct, but at best it can only be conjecture, and I at least have the facts, in black and white, in favour of my point of view.
As Barney points out, 3 different people came to three different conclusions before the race, and even after the race we all hold widely varying views. Although there is much common ground, the same applies to each individuals interpretation of VDW's teachings, and until someone provides evidence to the contrary, we all still have some way to go.
In view of this, and until I can be convinced otherwise, I will proceed along the path I have chosen, and will endeavour to use this forum as a sounding board, before the race whenever possible.
This is not to say any of you are wrong; as yet
I do not have the depth of knowledge to contradict anyone, but you can bet your last quid that, when I have, I will.

Good luck to all
Johnd

Guest

Thanks for your response. If my researches uncover anything to suggest that any of the May races were intended, I'll post again.

Good post john d, like where your coming from,the Arc is a race that will hopefully be discussed on here prior to racetime.Must say i was somewhat perplexed when someone of guests stature stated that high chaparral was a good thing for the race it took the wind out of the sails somewhat as he seems to know what he`s talking about lol` until then i had convinced myself the french derby winner would win the race no doubt he has based his findings on cold logic where i would have to agree that my own are sketchy at best, anyway here`s an attempt to do just that, Sulamani beat a four time group winner & dual group 1 winner in the french derby in Act One with 5 or 6 lengths back to simeon who had won the thresher at sandown, best lifetime ratings achieved by both high chaparral & sulamani are quite similar according to the racing post & although both are still open to improvement the french horse strikes me as having the most scope though that is only my opinion.A tentative line through Ballingarry would suggest sulamani holds a chance of sorts against the epsom derby winner but the placement of mark Johnstons best 3 yr olds cast some doubt over the form i have to agree, would also like to ask if anyone takes a different view to the race will the winner come outwith these two?.Your comments regarding people seeing things differently JD is a very interesting one & unless anyone had personal access to the man himself how could one be sure if they are on the right lines with the methodology unless they were hitting the board with s/r`s comparative to the vdw himself or at the very least making it pay.