Johnd,

I agree that TS win/run ratio isn`t ideal and yes he does need a true run race so even if he comes out well on class/form (yet to evaluate the race from VDW angle) he may still have factors against.

With regards Desert Deer, my initial thoughts without looking at his form is that as yet he has not done it in Group class whereas both TS and GS have.

That said, DD is possibly open to more improvement than the rest of the field.

Could DD be that improver running against exposed horses ?



*** I`m actually going to Donny tomorrow and it would be nice to have a few class/form horses with winning chances.

Best get cracking trying to find them !

Cheers,

Yes I really did believe REPERTORY was a better bet than RINGING HILL. Heres how I know:
I backed REPERTORY but did not back RINGING HILL.
I thought REPERTORY was quite a good bet the previous night but was worried about FUNNY VALENTINE. When I saw the latter was a non-runner I felt it made REPERTORY a very good bet indeed.
I had backed it on its previous 2 runs when it won at 7-2 and lost when the race was set up for DRAGON FLY due to that horses trainer retiring immediately after.

I had the RINGING HILL race between that one and HADDICE, with preference for the latter.

Why you have suddenly decided to delve into a D maiden is a bit of a mystery to me.
Personally I love low class races because they are easier, but the general impression I get from your goodself is that VDW/yourself/other VDWers prefer classier races because you can find more reliable and consistent horses (and better form figures + how do you find your ability rating in a maiden?).
I should be very grateful if you could enlighten me what made you investigate that race.

INVESTOR
Because, on occassion, I am rather arrogant and rude myself I am going to let you off with your suggestion that I don't know how to read form and pick winners,
Cheers
Swish

Tough Speed,

Top on the bare ability rating and well placed in the f/c.

The consistency ratings with the exception of Duck Row (8) suggest a field of inconsistent horses.

TS is 2nd on consistency however on 13 so on the numerical picture he`s receiving alot of plus`.

Whats more TS recieves rating support using RHR and Split Second as a guide. More plus`.

Lets have a look at his 5 races this season;

09/05 wrong distance
18/06 3rd group 2 at R.Ascot - career best effort ?
28/06 btn fav carrying penalty
13/07 btn fav carrying penalty
24/08 6th of 7 in group 2 not btn far

The 18/06 and 24/08 performances when one considers the opposition he faced in comparison to what he faces tomorrow were very good.

*** added to that have a look at his races on left hand galloping tracks like Doncaster and York.

In my opinion TS has the class/form to be competitive tomorrow and he looks a decent bet to me.

Cheers,

I also saw COUNSELS OPINION as a good bet today, but, regrettably, bottled out of it.
Unlike others, I was quite gutted, because 9-2 winners don't come easy.

As you were kind enough to offer an opinion on OMAHA CITY the other day, I would like to offer my opinion on the TOUGH SPEED race.

Firstly I should like to say (as I have said before), I find A races difficult.

To me it appears to be between GOLDEN SILCA, TOUGH SPEED and DUCK ROW.

I feel the favourite is not one to worry about.

GOLDEN SILCA scored its best figure over 8f but on GS. However it also scored a good figure in a 145A on GF, but this was 10f.
TOUGH SPEED scored a good fig in 14A 8GF. Also in 78A 8G.
DUCK ROW scored its fig in a 39A over 8GS.

I realise I am only scraping the bones of the race but feel a little too tired to go into it any further right now (sorry).

So briefly, I am tempted to agree that TOUGH SPEED is the one.

Another time I shall delve into another race more deeply if you like,

All the best
Swish

As I suspected I have created a flurry amongst the purists.
There is little doubt that reading the bare statistics TS is the class form horse, but this is a method not a system!!!!
The point I am trying to make, is that no matter how good the figures that support the horse, we must still recognise what the man said, i.e. THE CLASS IT RAN IN........................AND, MOST IMPORTANT, HOW IT PERFORMED IN THE LATER STAGES OF ITS RESPECTIVE RACES!
This, in my opinion, is the crux of the reading of form to achieve the percentages achieved by VDW.
I may well be wrong, and no doubt other contributors will point out the errors in my rationale, and quote me passages to susbtantiate it, but I firmly believe that unless one is aware of the trainers intentions, they will never aspire
to the aforementioned percentages. I have yet to see ANY evidence to contradict the above supposition.
I may also be wrong about DD, but the way I read the form is that sheer class carried him through to his 10f Newmarket win, and his form since that race points to his best distance being a mile.
Win or lose, the result will be illuminating, and at least I have opened up discussion on what I consider a fundamental piece of the jigsaw.
Whatever happens,

Good luck!
( in Vino Veritas).

Swish - Whilst Repetorys trainer did say he faced a stiff task last time when beaten behind Dragonfly, it is stretching it a bit to infer that he wasn't trying to beat the winner. For me FV had little going for it anyway, but Repertory was the most likely winner but not carrying all the attributes required to make him a good thing. As I have said before, I'm not going to say because so and so horse won it was a VDW type selection, because that would be backfitting. Repertory did not fit the profile of a VDW type bet, but hey it won so there you go.

I assume you have read Systematic Betting where a large section is devoted to VDW going through some 3yos being placed to win and in (shock,horror) maiden races. Again, VDW was sign posting some good clues as to what attributes are needed to make a horse a good bet. Yes, they were dropping in class to collect, but how were the class of races confirmed as genuine ?

In my view based on VDWs lessons, Haddice had no chance at all against Ringing Hill who hadn't put a foot wrong formwise. True Haddice had a fast run at Chester, but it missed it's chance when dropped at Windsor. The handicap run was pretty dire also and the horse looks to have gone backwards. Ringing Hill was next best on speed but had the form and class to capitalise on it.

The consistency method has things that are in common with all of VDWs methods, but each one has a different initial approach. Consistency is better taken in higher class races and interesting that VDWs consistency crosschecks snared the winner in repertorys race along with Aleaxander Three D and the other 2 big races at Donny on Wednesday.

you completely missed the point,believe it or not i was trying to be helpful,but it seems to have gone over the top of your head,ah well nevermind maybe next time

Sorry, I completely missed out Golden Silca in my ramblings; in my opinion she needs further or softer to been seen at her best.

DETERMINED
Jardines Lookout looks a solid bet today, and from a totally different angle Approach 3.25, will almost certainly reward each-way support.
Have a good day at sunny Donny.

Swish
If I remember correctly - you said about your dislike of A races right at the start of this thread !

Thanks to those who have responsed to my recent posts.

Johnd,

I see in the Post this morning that Joe Mercer favours DD over TS which is interesting. Jockey Darley of the opinion DD didn`t let himself down on the fast ground at York last week.

A furlong shorter today, on slightly easier ground and DD will have the run of the race. His run last week, his first for sometime should put an edge on him.

Is the trainer telling us today is the day ?

**** I have a dilemma this morning whereas last night TS was a confident choice.

Proven form in this class (TS) versus a likely improver with the form not yet in the book (DD).

Conflict and a race to leave alone ?



Jardines Lookout,

Not a horse I like. That said with PP in todays race he should get the strong pace he needs to bring out his stamina.

His York effort was disappointing but the race wasn`t run to suit.

Another race with question marks over it.



Looks like I`ll be going to Donny to watch and learn today.

Cheers,

In the feature race at Doncaster the class/form horse is Boreas with Jardines Lookout a close 2nd. JL is not particularly consistent but has won a similiar class race before and was beaten fav against Boreas last time, who was trying 2 miles for the first time after some good relative efforts over 1m 6f. Both horses can do well at this time of year and if possible I will be making a book with the pair at evens+.

The 2.15 has Tough Speed as the class/form horse and he has the 2 best bits of form in the race. A winner in the event last year and the fav looks false so he should be a good bet to repeat the dose.

3.25 Londonnetcom has the most plus points and started off over 7f before taking on a 6 length listed winner in France. She looks a good thing today.

A completely different method shows a good bet in the last race in the form of Birjand.

So possibly a busy day for me betwise.

Have a good day all.

Given that I am going to Donny today your comments have proved valuable.

I`m personally still undecided whether TS will be a bet for me.

The Cup race again leaves question marks for me, ie - I am not a fan of JL and will Boreas get the extra 2 fur`s in a potentially fast run race.

The 2yo race - i`ve not evaluated and will not have the time.

I am very interested in you naming a horse in a `cavalry` charge, namely Birjand. Very interesting !

Hope you and everyone have a profitible day,

Cheers,

Guest

I'm interested in your selection of Bijand. Is the method by which you've selected her one that VDW showed us, or one you've developed from your knowledge of VDW's approach? If the former, can you please indicate the VDW examples of the method in action?

Regards.

Guest.

I hope you have a good day today. I haven't been able to find anything at all today. So may I ask a few more questions?

The first one is, how do you work an ability rating using speed, it can't just be the fastest horse in the race. Is there a set procedure, or is it your interpretation of form and speed?

The race value that Tough Speed is running in has gone up from last year. Do you consider this is a better race than last year?

Yesterday you selected Mighty Strong, I must admit it surprised me. I know VDW backed horses first time out. I haven't be able to find an example where he backed a horse first time out when there have been other consistent horses in the race that have raced in the current season. If I am wrong could you point me in the right direction? I came to this conclusion, because I can find no other good reason to eliminate Move Off against Battlement.

Re Ringing Hill and Repertory. Like you, I made them both the most likely winners in the race. I cannot agree Ringing Hill was a better bet at evens. Nothing to do with vdw just no value in the price. There wasn't a lot of value in Repertory's price but there was a little. There again that's what racing is all about, opinion.

Best of luck today, I think the last race is a brave shout!

I am sorry if I musunderstood your post.
Kindly clarify.

Pro
Yes I did mention my dislike for A races at the start of the thread and several other times as well. As I aren't very good at finding winners in them, I generally leave them alone, which is a shame because I do like watching them,

Guest
I am starting to enjoy our little tete a tete's but I would still like to know what made you investigate a maiden because you never normally mention them.
Is it that you know they are the key to making money but don't like to say so?

Cheers
Swish

good afternoon..the question you have asked guest r.e maidens is what i was referring to,guest also mentions crosshecks to me they are vital in employing his(vdw,s)methods.do you know what they are? if not i,m sorry but your criticism/sceptism is not constructive,likewise if you do not posess the books,there is an awful lot more to it than roushard,i hope this post is taken the right way i.e thoughtfully.

Guest

I must say I am impressed with that one
a very brave call
Interestingly coming from fayr jags race

The benefit of seeing horses in the paddock should never be underestimated.

My days at the actual course are few and far between but I always try to get to a couple of days at the Leger meeting. I always tend to get to the Nov`br H`cap meeting also.

Tough Speed was a disappointing start. Just wasn`t good enough.

I have never been a fan of Jardines Lookout. That added to the well being of Boreas made him a bet.

Bishops Court and Needwood Blade stood out physically. Trip being too short for NB made BC a good bet.

A good day so I decided to break all the rules and play up my winnings with a very small bet on Birjand which was totally down to GUEST.

She looked very classy in the paddock with a lovely bloom to her coat which really made my mind up.

Guest, you have my total respect. Mind you, you always have.



**** a very good day but my feet remain firmly on the ground because I am still losing money this season which is something I`m not comfortable with ****

Balakheri on Saturday will put all that right, I hope.

Cheers,

well done, AGAIN, with your bets today.

I hope that a few more will get the bug thanks to those illuminating pre race analysis.

Please say that your teasing when you state that there is yet another method, you will have us all running round like headless chickens looking for something new when in fact its to the past that people should look and the old races and previous examples.

you certainly are having a good doncaster to go with all the other good meetings that you have enjoyed .

You have put up a constant stream of winners now for months and I for one understand how much time you must put in.

I am getting fed up doing a few races it is very tedious looking at everthing, everywhere in every race. I really dont know how you do it, what part does the mental strength and determination aspect play?

Determined,

well done on your winners I hope you had a great day.

I found it hard to go against needwood blade because it had done me proud but when the facts were looked at bishops court stood out.