I have now! Devious B******S these trainers, many thanks.

WALTER P

Without in any way wishing to appear unhelpful,I would say that the guys on the other thread have a much better handle on ratings than I do. All I can offer is that on speed figures I always convert them back to 10 stone, mostly as a loose guide to the class of the race, and postmark figures are generally overstated ( As a guide to class ) by probably about 10%. Don't take this as gospel, BB2K and co. would be a much more reliable guide.

Regards,
Johnd.

JohnD - Malhub and Continent had the best form in the race, but there was a negative that let things down for me and it goes back to a recent debate about Kyllachy. The ground shouldn't have been a problem, but the class probably was. Asian Heights had one or two negatives that should have been obvious as also did Naheef, but they had the best form between them.

Barney/JohnD - You may remember VDW mentioning two stars of the late sixties namely Reform and Royal Palace. Reform won 5 races from 7 at 3 and Royal Palace 2 from 3. RP won the 2000 Guinneas followed by the Derby and then not seen till the October when Reform beat him despite having a much lower ability rating. VDW said he preferred to judge horses on what they did in public on the track. Sophisticat was a decent 2yo as was Dressed To Thrill. Sophisticat won fto at 3 in April followed by a good run in the French 1000 and then a narrow win at Ascot in the Coronation in June. Dress To Thrill was unraced since finishing just ahead of Sophisticat in a group 1 last September until early July when winning a listed event at Leopardstown and then rested for 6 weeks before taking a group 3 on the same C&D. Consider Swiss Maid/Cistus also and the fact that we are talking about 3yo fillies. Chuck in the penalty and the question of targets and the coughing aspect wasn't that relevant.

PipeDreamer - Likewise with HawkWing. Despite what the press/tv tell you, HawkWing was not the class/form horse. Grandera was and there were valid excuses for the Ascot run, one being the trip in that class. The only race HawkWing has won this season was a poor renewal of the Eclipse, a race Grandera was 2nd in at 3yo. In the end it was tight, but it doesn't change the facts before the race. HawkWing looked magnificent pre race and I doubt he was sent out for such a race with too many fitness doubts. What is spoken after the race is very much with an eye on the whole essence of Coolmore/Ballydoyle namely breeding and the huge sums of money involved. When was the last time you heard someone there say one of their stars was beaten by a better horse from another stable ?

In a non-hcp I will only consider a horse that scored a good speed figure within the last year (exceptional circumstances excepted).
ATAVUS had scored his figure over a year previous.
To tell you the truth I found the race so difficult I left it alone altogether.

Cheers
swish

What would any of you think of OMAHA CITY 2.30 YORK.
Swish

Morning to you,

Omaha City without having even looking at the race in any detail would look to be without doubt the class horse in this race.

I`m confident his speed figures will stand up strongly to anything else in the field. He`ll carry the weight no problem. The very good 5 lbs claimer won`t do any harm.

The distance has to be a concern especially if more rain falls but on decent going his class should help him gets todays distance against what I believe is relatively weak opposition.

First impressions suggest the 5/1 RP suggested price looks inviting.

Cheers,

illustrator - another saddlers wells etc

ran in opening maiden at haydock yesterday.

fallon covered it up last, five furlongs out brought into midfield and covered it up, two furlongs out the winner had set off for home fallon came outside and produced it to run on well.
it made up a lot of ground "at the distance" .

Thanks for having a look at the race. My thoughts are similar. The 5 draw should be an asset as well,
Swish

Guest.

A quite afternoon for me, as I can't find a decent bet. I would like to ask a couple of questions, I wish someone else had asked them, as it may look as if I am having a go again (I'm not)

The main one is why did you ignore the main filter in the consistency method with Naheef?

If High Chaparral had run would he have been the bet for you in this race?

Dress To Thrill, I didn't look at this race until you pointed it out. I can see that this race falls exactly right for Statajack's thinking. Have you any thoughts on this? Also after the result of the race do you feel the bug on the stable had no reflection on the result, and will you take that form at face value? Funny you should mention Swiss Maid, I now find she is another to fit my criteria for the solution to the vdw examples. I think I understand Son Of Love, your way.

If I am reading you right, did you make Air Thule the c/form horse in this race? Do you make allowances for the inflated prize money from abroad, and if so how? Also you say there was a problem with class. Does that mean you consider that Continent is not a true Group 1 horse? Or just the doubt about the ability rating of AT?

Was Persian Punch a bet for you the other day?

Wishing you ALL the best of luck for Doncaster.

didn,t vdw say if you can get 4/6 about a horse whose true odds are 1/3 it,s value,well he was spot on today

will you have a look at swynford pleasure 3.15n and tell me what you think?

Mtoto - I didn't ignore the consistency part in Naheefs case. As stated on several occassions by myself, you don't have to be one of the consistent horses to be class/form. I merely pointed out who I thought would be the likely winners in the races mentioned by JIB. I made the Gp1 sprint between Continent and Malhub but neither were strong enough to bet. The class element was relative to the class of horse Malhub ran against last time and not just the class of race. Air Thule wasn't even a form horse on my reading of class/form.

The coughing situation with Aidens stable is obviously a consideration but not nearly as important as some think. For instance Landseer had no chance in my view coughing or not and there were valid reasons to discount Sophisticat in her comeback race. Hawk Wing ran to form, in fact probably his best run to date and of course Rock Of Gibraltar was a good thing today. There was much speak of Richard Hannons losing streak recently, but unless you analyse every runner he had in every race entered it is far too sweeping an assumtion to say his horses were not winning because of some ill effects or suchlike. More likely they were not up to their tasks in the main. A good trainer will not run a good horse knowing it to be unwell. Anyone who thought Hawk Wing to be under the weather should look at his pre race appearance again. If he was ill then I wish I looked that good when I was ill.

Persian Punch was the class/form in his race, but I didn't bet him.

Swish - Why take a chance in a scrubber race?

Re Swynford Pleasure, having had a close look at her form, I would say that she will struggle to last home if this is a truly run race. I know she has a C/D on her cv but that was in a slowly run Amateur race, and although her penultimate run was over 10f at Beverley, I would consider todays 10f a much stiffer test.
Connections obviously decided she had no chance from her draw lto and she was ridden accordingly.
Today's favourite ran a blinder lto, and given a fast pace, and no rain, could well repeat it, though I wouldn't bet on it.
All purely my opinion, you understand,good luck if you do back her.
Incidentally,re Scotts View's run at York last week, the way he was ridden, and the way the race unfolded, left me the strong impression that
last weeks race was only part of the plan, what did you think?

Good luck,
Johnd.

Thanks for the reply,re,Hawk Wing,I concede you were right,and I was wrong,as borne out by Rock of Gibraltar yesterday.We live and learn,that's what it's about I suppose.

thanks for your time and effort.I will have a look and think on SV.

Newcastle 3.15

Class/form is Colway Ritz, but for one or two reasons he is not a bet for me. Interesting that 3 of todays runners met recently over C&D finishing 2nd,3rd and 4th. Also interesting how they have all been placed since. It's just possible that an ex international will be windmilling round the winners enclosure up north around 3.20pm.

guest,

somebody has layed it at 145 for £8

i wish i knew how that worked


fancy explaing betfair to me in the chat room

A belated thank you for your detailed response to my query, you must really live and breathe the game! Many thanks.

Johnd.

i hope i am right

have a look at a post i did last night on the newcomb thread.

thats one way of looking at ex internationals lol

I agree claiming races are quite difficult.
Plenty of good winners to be found in the lower class races though.
Swish