Investor

The best of luck. At least you'll have some more interesting racing to study/watch from now on.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Barney:
perhaps someone could help me

why was the "erin" the only race that was "on"???

Barney

I'm fairly new to all this myself, but I have been doing an awful lot of work for the past few months. I myself have puzzled over this little quote a lot and think I may have an answer (but it may not be the right one).

I've not got my copy of TGY at work but if my memory serves me right there's a letter by an F K Chester (VDW later refers to him as getting close to the 'ultimate conclusion') that provided me with a clue to the answer.

I believe that the answer lies in the percentage figures that VDW quotes for combinations of form figures (i.e. 111 = 33%). This needs to be coupled with having enough 'consistent' horses in the race to make it unlikely that the winner will come from any where else (i.e. 3 or more). This effectively narrows the field meaning an in depth form study is required only for these horses.

I suppose what I am saying is that I believe that this consistency method works best (and was intended for use in) races with 3 or more consistent horses (cons. fig. less than 7???).

I don't know if this helps or not.

Be lucky (and methodical)..

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Barney - thanks for the hint about To-agori-mou I'm rereading the VDW material so I'll pay increased attention to that evaluation when I get to it.

Investor - I've had a quick look at St Expedit. I think this is another winner in a race with emphasis on the meaning of "significant". Looking at the other runners they could each be discounted for various reasons so like Roushayd it had no opposition.

You may have stated Sir Effendi by mistake but looking at its form has given me a germ of an idea about the Unexposed Form method.

All the best
hedgehog

a very tricky race to get involved in, what i,m looking for are races where a maximum of four can be seen to dominate the selection process there are snakes in the grass i.e wannabee around,scottish river.i won,t be playing in this one.

i,m sorry my friend,but you,ve misinterpreted the significant aspect,i meant all the races where significant, not what was relative with the rest of the field,i hope you understand what i,m trying to convey,put another way,there are only two,threeor four horses that have any chance of winning,the others are there to make up the numbers,i apologise if i appear vague but i,m struggling to put what i,m trying to say,into words without telling all,god knows how guest kept going

i have not been posting up very often lately but have been keeping up with this thread and a big round of applause goes out to investor who all last week kept it going.
todays racing has got me interested and i thought i would try to do the complete opposite and spell out as much as i possibly can without any reasoning behind it,i am sure to all of the regulars this will be of no benefit whatsoever but if its winners you are looking for then read on.

oldenway 4.30 red
renditas 3.45 wolv
bourgainville 7.30 win(home and hosed)
redbrook lad 6.10 tow
horus 7.15 tow***
monty's tag 7.45 tow
taming 8.15 tow

better moment 5.40 tow should also give you a good run for your money but has proved dodgy in the past so will not include.

hope everyone realizes the spirit in which this post was intended.off now to remove tongue from cheek.
max

Barney

I've just re-read my previous message and perhaps I'm not been totally clear. The betting forecast is still significant, I think the races that should be attacked using the consistency method are ones where 3 highly consistent horses figure in the first 5 in the betting.

It was this consistency method (with no mention of ability) which led to Mr. Hall discovering the 'key' and VDW talking of 80% winners. Maybe not too many bets but a very tasty strike rate and the presence of several consistent horses helps to keep the odds attractive. If no decision can be made between the horses the option of dutching often remains.

Once again I may be teaching my grandmother to suck eggs, if so I apologise.

i hope everything is going well for you,just out of interest have you read the vdw material,if not they,re well worth reading mate,i think you,d get your head round them quite quickly,certainly improved my selection process

7.30 WINDSOR

Gets more difficult by the minute, ie - several well repected posters suggest there is too much conflict and Max offers the view that my second class/form horse Bourgainville is `home and hosed`.

Added to that Suggestive, clearly a progressive horse in the hands of a very clever trainer has been strongly backed into 5/2 favourite throughout the day.

Also, Macktheknife quite correctly makes reference to P.Lodge `s running with F.Thames at Newmarket back in Oct`br 01.

Lets deal with all the points raised,

Scottish River receives the weight due to the WFA scale and yes because of P.Lodge penalty, trying to concede 18 lbs looks a tall order. However is SR in form?
Very disappointing overall since his 2nd at Nkt` in July 01 when recording a Postmark figure of 103. His last run whilst last of 3 saw him beaten only just recording a Postmark figure of 102. The PM figure recorded suggests this last run was the 2nd best of his career therefore he must be in form.
Added to that SR was entered in valuable hcap at York tomorrow carrying top wgt` of 9-07. Clearly a pointer in itself.

Barney – double figure odds available. Are you tempted ?

Suggestive – money from this stable usually means a good run but I still can`t have this one.

Father Thames loves the soft ground therefore should have beaten PL at Newmarket. Provided the going stays on the fast side I`m confident PL will beat FT.

SUMMARY – I cannot argue with all the possible arrears of conflict and perhaps as many of you suggest this is a race to watch rather than play.

That said, at the available 5/1 perhaps PL is an e/w bet to nothing.

Cheers,

Determined,

If you're going the e/w route then remember JIB's way - 2pts e/w adn 2 pts place on the Tote. I'm basically in agreement with your analysis, but the way I've been going of late perhaps that's not much encouragement.

Good luck whatever you decide.

Oldtimer

a class E 34 maiden i know but KASTHARI is,nt in this to make up the numbers,if i could get 7/4..2/1 i,d be in like a shot.

determined hope you read the race analysis of becketts race, re-ft.

Oldtimer,

E/w betting is not my norm but I suppose it ought to be part of my armoury, ie - last season the no` of placed horses I backed to win only at very good prices would have been so different had I played e/w.

Investor,

Kasthari was btn` 15 lengths first time out. No doubt he wasn`t put into the race until too late.
One can expect improvement this evening against what looks a mediocre bunce but not my cup of tea. Trainer stats for the course will certainly give you added encouragment.

Good luck,

re - ft ?

Apologies if I`m missing something.

Cheers,

wow hope this type of exchange keeps going seems like its back to normal.

determined congratulations are in order for taking the bull by the horns, at 12/1 yes i am tempted but i try to not let any element of a gamble creep in but i think 30% of this type will win,ft is father thames.

every one

to further confuse the issue the going is now G/S, making the ability to carry todays weight to good effect even more vital.

carlos

thanks for your trouble in making those reply,s its as much as i thought and its nice to know others are thinking on the same lines, also after checking 5-6-12 returns an incredible 75% winners


ps with the ground in change i now like suggestive

Going now soft. Priors Lodge on this ground is not a bet.

Bourgainville prefers fastest ground but can handle the soft but how soft is it.

Nothing worse than a dramatic change in the going therefore no bet in the race for me.

All very frustrating especially with the excellent York fixture. If on the soft side there anything can happen.

Cheers,

determined be positive the analysis will highlight the consistent horses remember my analgy to your running-doesnt make you any worse a runner does it?? just some arnt good enough on gf and will come into their own in a softer ground race.

Hello All,

Determined - as promised I have looked at the race and this is what I found.

I make Superiority the C/F horse with Bourganville and Suggestive joint second.

Superiority can handle softer going and the form with Divine Task looks good. The 51 days since its last race is not a problem as it runs well when fresh. Its making a huge class drop.

Bourgainville can also handle the going and made a good seasonal debut but is carrying 7lbs more. However it has improved and is a distance winner.

Suggestive can win first time out and has good form with Independence receiving increasing support over it last 2 runs. Why was it not raced more?

My selection is Superiority.

However all three are possible winners and as such since there is no single horse with no opposition. This is a no-bet.

It will be interesting to see where Omaha City is placed next.

All the best
hedgehog

I`m off to watch the race.

Will I have a bet ?

Temperament !

Cheers,

well done mac your pointer spelled it out!!!