Investor

With respect, I did not say that I didn't see logic in your selections - that would have been a very dismissive thing to say. Rather, I said I don't find it easy to understand the logic - and that is because you've simply made a comment or two rather than set out what I would regard as a clear narrative leading to your conclusion.

I would suggest that, whether or not someone shared my conclusions regarding the Derby trial, anyone interested in exploring the application of some of VDW's thinking can see the chain of reasoning. Potentially that permits comments of various types: correction of errors (we all make them); observations about how the methodology has been applied, or indeed mis-understood and therefore mis-applied; alternative but hopefully reasoned judgements as to how the various elements were brought into balance; thoughts about the bet/no bet decision, and staking possibilities if a bet was seen as appropriate. For me, at any rate, your abbreviated comments don't lend themselves to that kind of response.

However, it seems to me fairly clear that there is as much interest in exploring fuller (or long-winded!) analyses of races as there is in discussing your briefer (economical!) ones, ie virtually none. We are both wasting our time.

Finally, as to the two races to which you referred, its not that they weren't of interest: any race is. Rather, its that I didn't look at them on Saturday and therefore have nothing to say. (Your handicap is your inter-active TV mode of typing an analysis: mine is the time it takes me to look at a race!)

Cheers.

FULHAM

please dont think you wasting your time the analysis that you gave is correct as far as i can see but what i cant work out is why the underlying form that are the foundation of that reasoning is not discussed.the platform is there and can be evaluated in all races whether to bet or not is another thing.

a number of people who rely on the numerical picture to finalise a selection will struggle, i use as apoint of reference the to agori mou illustration which seems to me to highlight the fundamental aspects ontop of which the numerical picture, when all factors are realised,will produce the certs.

the last three good things i have pointed at illustrate this point in the hope that others may see also, its seems to me of no use putting up the easy ones which we all can see.

also with respect to you,i can understand the time it takes to evaluate a race,but i feel you are probably missing some good opportunities,in other races to be evaluated,i looked at bandari,because i thought the horse looked very good at first glance but the distance was a problem,had this race been over 7f or a mile i would have backed him without any shadow of doubt,obviously you overlooked the 8.00 at warwick which is a shame because i feel you would have a few more quid in your betting bank,the significance i talk about is covered in systematic betting (briefly) and the subject was touched on by lee in one of his latter posts,which may be scoffed at by most,but should be taken very seriously.

Investor

You are, of course, right, but then you are a pro, and presumably "at it" full time. For others - me included - its a question of fitting one's racing interest in with one's professional work and family life. Alas, its a rare day that I get the chance to look at more than one or two races seriously, and on Saturday the Derby trial was the race for consideration within a group of which I'm a member, so it had to take priority.

I see from your details that you've only been a pro a short while. Do you think you'll stick with it? I don't think I'd be single-minded enough, even if I had the ability. However, as I regard taxation as theft under the constitutional arrangements applying for the last 140 years, earning a living without being forced to pay tax on it has considerable attraction!

7.30 WINDSOR ( 13/05/02 )

4/1 Bourgainville 55 104 72 72 91

9/2 Priors Lodge 119 110 348 232 99

6/1 Soviet Flash 110 105 72 189 102

6/1 Father Thames 63 106 Fto 94 101

7/1 Superiority 101 ? 821 218 ?

Figures left to right refer to ability rating, OR, class(value) last run, highest class win (value) , best Topspeed figure.

The numerical picture in my opinion gives Priors Lodge a lot of plus points and I make him the class/form horse, ie – the horse with the highest ability rating considered in form.
We should always allow a consistent horse one bad run and without doubt PL last run when beaten at Sandown when upped in class was due to the soft ground.
His seasonal debut in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton was the best run of his career. He was very competitive in the race and was only found wanting through lack of fitness. Both McGrath and Swinburn were very impressed with how well he had done physically over the winter which further confirmed this was an improved horse.
Upped in class as stated next time when fancied in betting only to be found out by conditions.
Dropped in class today on a course that shouldn`t pose any problems and if ignoring last run we have a proven Group 3 horse dropped in class against horses of inferior ability.
The 5 lbs wgt` he has to give in my opinion is not sufficient to stop him. He has form with several of the opposition and we have a highly probable winner here.


Soviet Flash has disappointed in 3 runs so far however I believe there have been genuine excuses each time. The fitting of visor first time and the booking of Hughes is very interesting and I expect an improved performance. That said I cannot see him reversing form with PL.

Superiority has done the most of his winning in Dubai against weak opposition and I cannot have this one. Any market support would however cause slight concern.

Bourgainville in my opinion is the second class/form horse. Won a race he couldn`t have expected to win first time against far better horses on OR. Ridden differently which trainer believes brought about the improved form. Up in class value today against a proven Group horse but a definite danger in my book.

Father Thames is held by Pl on the book and is FTO.

Remainder of opposition discounted for various reasons..

SUMMARY – Priors Lodge given suitable ground conditions is a likely bet. On soft ground Bourgainville will become the bet.

****** I`d appreciate any feedback ******

Cheers,

hi determined

cant wait untill tomorrow at 630 am when i can play

superiority interests me already particularly no OR and no SF ha ha!!! its also interesting that you think its oposition has been poor.HOW HAVE YOU MEASURED THIS???

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Determined - I'll happily have a look at your chosen race tomorrow and if I can make any useful contribution, post a reply.

Investor - I've been reading your posts with Fulham and Barney with interest. I had a quick look at Demasta and Sir Effendi. The first seemed obvious. A winner in a race. I haven't checked the other horses in its race but I'm sure it was, like Roushayd, without any real opposition.

Sir Effendi I found more difficult. I believe it is an Unexposed Form horse like Travado and Rivage Bleu. Sometime ago I thought I had cracked that one but not so. However in the case of Sir Effendi it is clear that this horse produced a very good first time out performance when its past form shows it is not a horse to bet on FTO and an improved performance next time out could be inferred.

Again I have not checked Sir Effendi's race but I am sure that it was running against no opposition.

All the best
hedgehog

HELLO GUEST

INVESTOR


you should buy a PC with some of your winnings.

Determined,

Windsor7.30 cant find a winner in the race, has priory lodge proved itself with the weight?,is it getting enough from the distance? is it consistent in this class? that said from what i can see he has the best credentials on offer,so for me anyway a race to watch as there is more than likely an unexposed type lurking, taking a guess that fanshawes horse might be the fly in the ointment.
mac.

Barney,

My comments on SUPERIORITY I accept are misleading and inaccurate and my apologies for any confusion. The opposition he`s been running against is infact comparable if not better than todays field however based on his finishing positions (with the exception of his penultimate run) he`s hardly marked his card ? As I stated last night market support would cause concern. After all they wouldn`t be bringing him across here just for the sake of it. Discounting him is a `risk` but isn`t there `risk` in most races unless one is striving for 80% plus.


MTK.

You state the Fanshaws horse could be a dark horse. I believe you mean the Haggas horse namely SUGGESTIVE. 2 wins and unbeaten yes beating non other than Independence on career debut followed by 5 lgth` win in a `C`. A very shrewd trainer who places his horses very well but first run for 350 plus days and upped significantly in class. Not for me today.

The wgt` carried by PL today I agree has to be a question mark and remembering the phrase "if carrying more wgt` than proven with then the day will not be there`s" suggests he should be left to run today.


I agree there are clear question marks here notably the extra wgt` for PL, and the potential `dark` horses in `S` and `S` but for me if obtaining 3/1 plus for PL then I beleive that I have a value bet provided the rains stay away.


Thanks for the feedback from those who have raised questions, etc.

Cheers,

hi determined


there is conflict in the ratings, granted PL has the ability in the book but he has had opportunities st this distance and not taken them

there is also conflict in the class ratings and in the ability.

one way to look at is why should scottish river get 18lb from your horse when rated only 5 inferior and he is in form and would be my bet if you twisted my arm

Scottish River is worth discussion but I`ve got to go to work.

Will reply late afternoon.

Cheers,

perhaps someone could help me

why was the "erin" the only race that was "on"???


determined so have i but there will be time to look at afew later on

Barney

I may be missing your point, but surely the Scottish River weight situation is largely explained by wfa.

As to the 1978 Erin, there was no racing in England that day due to adverse weather. The Leopardstown meeting was the only one available and presumably VDW thought only the Erin was worth attention, though there was a decent handicap chase on the card.

fulham


yes it is, but when the OR is set they dont allocate the OR in relation to age it is the placement by the trainer that takes advantage of this phenomenon, sometimes to advantage sometimes not, i only used this to illustreate conflict.

i,ve got one but have,nt got round getting online,i must get it sorted.

nice to hear from you,i would like to apologise to you and fulham,i actually meant ST EXPEDIT not SIR EFFENDI i don,t kno where i got that name from

morning all

Determined, father thames was 15/2 against priors lodge 33/1 behind becket at newmarket last back end, btn 2l by the winner, thought to be unsuited by the ground that day, now better of at the weights with the 2nd, not enough to go on but i know but interesting nonetheless when considering the prices on offer this evening, you have to wonder though where some of these horses are going, a point you illustrated with fb, & a worthy one too.
mac.

good morning..with to pro punting,it really does get quite boring at times,and also very lonely,to answer another point,yes,i will stick at it at least for the foreseeable future