i have 2 dissagree with u barney,its not guest,there are probably 5 or six of you who could take his place,just post selections.
nobody will back them anyway,guest said he was the best and i`m not sure if he made any profit level stakes,the only people that do it at the business end are max and swish,the rest of you talk agood game............

i have asked this before and got no reply so will try again

with regard to love from verona-does anyone have a speed figure for this horses last race

good thing(?)440b

Greg

I stand to be proven wrong, but I don't think you can substantiate your assertion that Guest "said he was the best". But don't doubt his ability to turn a profit - just take a look at my post of 9.18pm on 22 April (page 94 of the thread) which summarised his "posting" performance to that point. The few clear selections he gave after that post kept him comfortably in the black.

My guess is that Guest got fed up with those who take your view - that what is wanted is "selections": indeed, perhaps it would have been better had he given none. The real value of Guest's contributions - now sadly missed by some of us - was the opportunity they afforded for serious "students" of VDW's work to bounce ideas off someone who was palpably some (perhaps many) steps further down the road. And I for one am grateful to him, as through his responses I have been able to sort out some important points that FOR YEARS had eluded me.

Who knows, but if those still at a relatively early stage in their attempts to get to grips with VDW's approach focused on methodological issues rather than the here and now of today's races, Guest (and others) might again feel able to make contributions.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting that it is inappropriate to explore current races, and they obviously offer opportunities to consider methodological issues - and if I may saw so, some of Determined's posts are absolutely in the right vein for this purpose. But the tendency to turn this thread into essentially yet another "bet of the day" one, with an element of the "I can find more winners than you" attitude, is in my opinion the reason why it has been relatively sterile for the last fortnight or so.

I to am more interested in the thought processes behind selections rather than selections per se - and this applies to any of the threads. The former can help in long term profitability whilst the latter can lead to short term profits - but what about the long term if the source dries up ?
I havent backed any tips that have appeared on this board - as the real gain to myself is perhaps stumbling on things I havent thought of before that might give a further profitable edge.

Hi all,

Having read through some earlier postings from the thread found members discussion with the prominent king example most interesting.

It has been said many times in fact that this was probably the most important evaluation that vdw put forward & anyone who could unravel the hidden factors contained therin would be well on their way.

Had a look at this race again in the light of things learned from you guys & wonder if beacon light had to be out of form not to be selected here, noticed one member said he was not the form horse, not out of form, thinking along the lines of why drumgora was included & the ability rating used in a slightly different matter anyone care to help?.
mac.

Barney,
Love From Verona had not recorded a Speed Figure in any of its last 3 runs according to the information I have at hand. It was also not in the 1st 4 for ability. That should help you a bit.
regards,

I`m delighted to see this thread has come back to life.

Fulham - I thought we`d lost you. On the point you raised regarding the examples VDW gave I still cannot really get involved in any discussions as I`m ashamed to say I still haven`t really looked at any of the examples in too great a detail although once I do I have no doubt I`ll learn plenty.

Funnily enough I re-read articles 1 - 36 of The Golden Years last night and it is amazing how many different things crop up. I even went as far as looking at one or two of the named horses namely CELTIC PLEASURE, BATTLEMENT, LITTLE NUGGET but its pointless as the first annual I now possess is the 1978 year and its quite clear earlier annuals are required.

For the time being (time permitting) I am going to evaluate present races in the hope to keep this thread going.

Cheers,

The best quality field for this race I can ever remember. Talk about class, we have an Ascot Gold Cup winner, 2 x Northumberland Plate winners, Cesarewitch winner and runner up, Ascot Stks winner, double Chester Cup winner, etc.

Where do we start ?

I have rated all the runners for `ability` and the top 4(5) from the first 6 in the RP betting are

R.Rebel (414), R.High (292), D.Prospect (241), HaM (139), Cover Up (138).

Form horses = Tender Type (also very consistent and on the up) and Darasim.

From the above named horses I feel confident in ruling out 2 immediately, ie - R.Rebel for numerous factors and T.Type (outclassed ?)

Also, a quick look at the horses with good ability ratings not in the first 6 in the betting I`m happy to rule out for various reasons.

That leaves me with a shortlist of RH, CU, HaM,DP and Darasim. Also, I feel Brother Joe who doesn`t have an ability rating has to be included due to his top class hcap form last season.

Now the hard work begins. Surely the race is too difficult ?

I`d value any comments so far.

Cheers,

Which horse is most suited to a constantly turning course such as Chester?
Winning top class races on galloping tracks such as Ascot, Newmarket and Newcastle may rule out these horses as they may not have the agility to keep up a strong pace on the turns here.

hi determined just found the form in todays post and first impression is why has hills put in rainbow high when clearly no chance?? this lets in priry falcon off a very handy weight, similarly royal rebal and darism, not saying that they will win (just yet,,,ha ha)but the form of both latter named horses doesnt put them out of it in comparison.

keep it up

good evening...how do you come to the conclusion that this thread has turned into " i can pick more winners than you " thread,the two emailed replies i recieved from guest he said he could,nt say much more without giving the game away,he also told me not to worry about what i said on saturday,which made me feel a little better,why don,t you give your evaluations or are you keeping them to yourself? please don,t ignore that final question,iv,e never seen any mention of bet from you,or any evaluation,so come on fulham,let,s you at work.

Chester Cup – comments on my shortlist

Rainbow High - dual race winner and clearly trained for the hat trick. Last run when 7th of 10 at face value doesn`t look too good however the race was a very competitive group 3 run in a fast time and over a trip much shorter than ideal. It will certainly have put an edge on him. Proven wgt` carrier and on last years running he has the beating of all those who finished behind him.
Well drawn and I expect jockey will attempt the same as last year and dictate from the front.

Distant Prospect – had ideal conditions when winning last years Cesarewitch. Chester is no Newmarket. He was outpaced in this race last year and I expect the same again on quicker ground than ideal.

Cover Up – worse off at the weights with RH from last years race however improvement was evident throughout season when winning Ascot Stks followed by excellent placed efforts in Northumberland Plate and Ebor. Ran well over course last season and I`m convinced he will have been trained for the race. Draw 16 will see Fallon drop him in and I`m concerned he may not get the run of the race. Closely matched with Brother Joe on last years form however he`ll be fresh whereas BJ is coming off hard NH campaign .

High and Mighty – beaten by Tender Type recently. That said, proven in this race and I expect an improved performance however is he improving at 7 years.

Brother Joe – this race must be an after thought. He`ll clearly be fit enough but will his several recent runs over hurdles have taken toll.

Darasim – gave weight to Akbar on seasonal debut which was excellent effort. Unproven over course, distance, etc and wouldn`t appear to have the ability/class of others in the race but I believe he`ll improve at the trip.

Summary – Rainbow High, Cover Up and Darasim will produce the winner. Is there a book to be had ?

****** I look forward to any comments ******

Cheers,

Investor

You raise two points, so two answers.

1) I came to my conclusion by watching the character of the recent posts, which is rather different from those when the thread was (in my view) more lively and productive;

2) as to pre-posting, I made my position crystal clear when I first started posting - in reply to someone whose board name I can't now remember and who was subsequently banned (not because of his inter-change with me). If you are interested, you'll find it among my first half a dozen or so posts. My position has not changed in respect of a public thread like this, though I do regularly post analyses pre the "off" on a more private forum, as at least four other members of that forum who also post here can testify. (Most recently the big handicap on Saturday where the conclusion was that although Late Night Out was the clear class/form horse with a lot going for it, it was not a bet.)

Good evening,

I hope Fulham doesn`t mind me making comment on your last post.

He ( Fulham ) has previously, on this thread made comment on the subject of posting selections beforehand.

He will not do so and why should he ( although if I`m honest I`d love to know his thoughts ).

It is quite clear to me that he thrives on analysing the old examples and judging by his comments on this thread he`s doing one hell of a job.

I for one really look forward to his comments, etc and I will continue to encourage him to pass comment on my pre race postings because what ever he says is always worth a listening to.

What are you trying to do ? Upset all those who are well on the way.

Why not just post your thoughts/evaluation, etc as I will and lets see where it gets us.

I`ve done my bit on the Chester Cup. I look forward to yours and anybody else` of course.

Good night,

determined


you have had a good look at the race, watch and learn.there will be far easier race's tomorrow.


the harder you look the more likely it is that you will come to a conclusion, it isnt that hard when they are there.


statajack

thanks for that, my form book doesn't have them in either, i will have to plod on with something else.


mac
drumgora was included to emphasise the coming out of handicap bit,dont know what you mean re the other points

[This message was edited by Barney on May 07, 2002 at 10:47 PM.]

Determined

If you care to email me, I can probably assist you.

I totally agree that there will be far easier races to evaluate today. Perhaps thats what VDW meant when he made reference to `how to read a card`.

Your comment `the harder you look the more chance of coming to a conclusion`. I assume what you are saying is that I`ve gone looking for the winner of the race instead of identifying A WINNER IN THE RACE.

I accept that my 3 probables may not be the conclusion VDW came to and in that case my evaluation is wrong.

There will be races throughout this season where even I can spot the ones that are sticking out like a sore thumb. OK the Chester Cup is a tough one to call and perhaps the experts say there is too much conflict.

That said, I`m reasonably comfortable with my 3 probables ( perhaps Darasim is a little questionable ).

I`ll perhaps watch and learn today as I`ve never been happy playing at Chester.

That said, Thursday I`m sure will show up a couple of good things. Lets get today out of the way first.

Good luck,

Determined,

I continue to wonder at you guys, how you can on occasions find races where there is no conflict. To me there is conflict in each and every race. I agree that today's Chester Cup is difficult to identify a winner in, much more so than yesterday's 3.25 there when I considered Royal cavalier to be as sound a bet as I've seen in a month or more - yet it was not.

I must bow to my betters and just go back to following the tips of the tipster in form, who generally immediately hits a losing run.

Oldtimer

Morning or is it evening,

(1) I certainly do not consider myself better than anyone, far from it

(2) `conflict`- I agree every race has an element of conflict/risk/dangers.

(3) Royal Cavalier - I didn`t look at the race yesterday but knowing the horses form I`m pretty sure he`d have been very close to a bet.

(4) I enjoy reading youe evaluations and I look forward to your thoughts on a very difficult Chester Cup.

**** reading the Post this morning it looks as though my decision to discount Distant Prospect was possibly a little premature ****

Cheers,