Hi Determined

I did not analyse this race on Saturday, and have only looked at it briefly since because of the comments on the thread.

The winner was, in my view, the clear class/form horse. (I agree with Guest's view that a lto winner can sometimes not be "in form": Homeson in the VDW example race won by Beau Ranger was a case in point. But for me that is the exception, not the rule, and DoM was no exception.)

There were clearly some questions to be addressed: including how good was The Judge; could one be sure DoM would beat Thihn, given the weight swing; and was the fav. better that its record suggested, given the heavy level of support for it.

As I did not address these questions before the race and now know the result, it is impossible to work out retrospectively the answers I'd have come up with before the race because INEVITABLY one is influenced by how the race went. That said, its hard to see that DoM could possibly have finished outside the first four, so an EW bet at 9/1 was almost a bet to nothing. (And unless I could have confidently ruled out the fav., an EW bet, rather than dutching the possibles, would clearly have been the better option.)

(On the Form Book, the fav. had no chance, especially with its rise in the ORs, but when a horse like that is backed that heavily I find it difficult not to take that into account, especially for such a relatively unexposed horse. So I doubt I'd have discounted it completely and, let's face it, its supporters very nearly collected.)

Mtoto and Lee,
Thanks to both of you for your response to my last post.

Determined,
I too will be sad if we have seen the last of Guest.I can understand his point of view however.There has to come a point when learners like ourselves have to go it alone.Guest has given a lot of information out on this board and his posts are definitely worth reading and rereading and perhaps most importantly asking why he came to the conclusions he did.He has certainly lost no credibility with me because my understanding has definitely improved since I started analysing his posts.

All the best.

I was surprised today to read the comments made about ‘guest’, particularly given that before he posted a few losers the reaction was a total contrast; what he had to say previously seemed to be the best thing since sliced bread, but no longer for some so it appears.

As ‘guest’ has already pointed out there is something that he has kept to himself, but this something has been dangled like a carrot, as I’ve never seen it so blatantly before. Judging by emails to myself and postings on here some of you are extremely close, but on the whole most are way off the mark.

I made comment some time ago that it would be IMPOSSIBLE to attain a proper understanding of what VDW was sharing just by reading what was on this thread, without the necessary formbooks; this has today been confirmed.

Every selection that ‘guest’ has put up I know why he has done so. I personally didn’t back them all but nevertheless I understand why he selected them. There are many variables that are obvious to most such as the going, the trip, the course, and it is these variables that generally make one opinion different to another, HOWEVER, there is one factor where VDW is concerned that opinion, in the majority of cases, is unbiased and unquestionable and it is this factor that needs to be understood.

I’m personally VERY selective and I would place big money that ‘guest’ has had many more winners than the losers that he has posted. To be honest he has been brave to share his thoughts on some very difficult meetings. High class races and Saturdays are when I exercise the most caution. But that is me in comparison to him.

Opinion and voice is everything and there are some major players on this thread who know what they are talking about where racing, in general, is concerned. Remember, We never stop learning!

good evening..this thread is also important to me,ive followed it everyday since it started,you may think me a prat for saying what i did,it was just frustration really,anyway iv,e e.mailed guest,and he,s replied,and things are sorted.he will still be posting (i hope he does,nt mind me saying this)he feels he cannot defend the methods much more without giving everything away,i,m sure he,ll explain when he does decide to post in the meantime i will try and be a bit more constructive and not destructive,sorry mate..goodnight

the second paragraph of your last post surely must be the most arrogant of all the postings on this board.who are you to judge someones interpretation of the method?there is no right or wrong way,its down to the individual to come up with a method that suits them not for another board member to make a sweeping statement as to their competance of the vdw workings.
if so many are way off the mark then instead of critisizing others why not SPELL IT OUT and end all of the speculation as to the merits of any particular way.
i have no opinion either way regarding the tit for tat guest situation but feel it would be a great shame if he were no longer to post his thoughts.i do not think guest did hold anything back for himself,i think it just demonstrates he like everyone else can not be expected to pick the winner of every race and is himself looking for the missing link which in my opinion will remain just that,missing.its this x factor that will never be explained which in turn will make the perfect race selection method ellusive.

I totally agree with your posting.
Everyone knows I am totally arrogant at times, which,I realise is stupid and ignorant, but at least you, I,(and Guest) and a lot of others are posting selections up, with a fair amount of success between us.

Lee,
What is this "spells it out stuff"?
I already know how to spell B*****s.

So Lee spell out "winners" and prove to the rest of us that you really are in a position to say what you say,
Yours,
Swish

WINDSOR: 7.40 BURNING SUN

titus

shortlist price will decide on bet

Peter Coe (father of Seb) stated that its is very difficult to "double peak" in a season. Looking at the results year after year after Cheltenham maybe the same applies to horses who have been asked to peak there. This may explain some of the results rather than being any fault of vdw and his methodology

I had a bet on this horse myself and barring it's record in this race (always the bridesmaid etc.) I thought it looked a good bet, I thought I was getting a steal at nearly 2-1 .

I hope that Guest continues to post. I'm not looking for someone to pick winners for me, Guests posts often get me thinking, which is far more valuble.

I can't see anything inspiring today but the 3:30 at Bath tomorrow looks potentially interesting.

Regards

hello all..well here goes, tow 3.00 ITSONLYME 81 GOLDBRIDGE 62 v.williams horse does,nt warrant the 4/6 quote in r.p ratings look good but not for me at that price...win 7.10 BORDER SUBJECT 51 YORKIES BOY 49 ratings very tight, also certain justice hhas claims no bet..cheers investor

with 2 winners from 35 last 14 days and only 4 placings,the stable going through a rough patch and by all accounts 75% of the yard coughing like asmatic donkeys.at the moment could not win a one horse race.i would steer well clear at that price.

i take it you won,t be backing any of hers then, pipey looks good today...cheers investor

i think a terrible days racing all around and the only two that interest me are burning sun in the 7.40 wind and contract scotland in the last at newcastle tonight.allthough to be honest i have not properly looked at this afternoons runners.

Fulham,

Thanks for your comments on the 5.15 Sandown. The favourite and `unlucky` runner up Island Light although unproven in this class was clearly expected judging by the £20k recorded bets on course.

Investor,

We all get frustated at times and all credit to you for accepting the fact that perhaps you went a little too far with your comments about Guest.

I`m pleased to see you have approached Guest to resolve any `problems`.

Lee,

I guess I`m one of the many who have no idea about VDW. I wonder if I will ever find this magic `factor` you refer to.

I do like carrots so if you want to dangle anymore feel free.

Cheers,

hello all...3.40 notts CHANGE OF IMAGE 55 MISS PITZ 52 HERNANDITA 50 a similar situation to flagships race on sat.very tight ratings.but not even remotely a vdw bet....3.30 bath RED MILLENIUM 52 SWISS LAKE 48 again ratings low and tight,but on further evaluation,i make SWISS LAKE a good bet today.progressive last three runs,today dropping in class hopefully today,s her day.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Investor - well done with Swiss Lake. A very good start indeed.

All the best
hedgehog

hello all...as 2.30 solo mio,persian punch..p.p far and away the class act,but i have negativity in my brain so i,ll let him run maybe at my cost...ex 3.15 cadougold,handyman...as 4.10 approval,irony...i like the look of approval in this one,his he a roushard qualifier? ..as 4.40 soviet flash,inglenook.it,ll be interesting to see how things pan out,a watching day for me but plenty of food for thought...oh k 7.25 ballystone,weaver george..afternoon chappies

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Isn't it quiet on the thread!

Lee - thanks for you hint I think I get it and understand the reasoning for its general lack of bias. However what steps do you take in the cases were even that opinion is subject to external forces?

All the best
hedgehog

hello mate.. hopefully it,s just the quality of racing at the moment, i think it,s upto the likes of you and i,to keep this thread alive,there,s some good racing just round the corner,so come on chaps don,t let this thread die...cheers investor

i,ve been looking at this one race fo ages,MILLENARY looks very good indeed, but there,s conflict in my eyes and temperement pops up again,i would like to say,watch out for HIGH PITCHED when running in a lower class race,i would,nt discount him today.