good afternoon...maybe fantasy hill was an illusion in form,i believe vdw said form can be interpreted in many ways,i don,t believe any of the experts would have backed f.h has a single but may have considered a book,he was a serious threat and in myopinion the form was there.cheers investor

Fulham,

Yes, it was a little unfair to use this example.
As a newcomer from other groups it can be difficult to know what others actually consider in their minds to be the VDW method. There were several methods and they all very good but they seemed to run into each other when VDW was explaining his claimed, continual success. When others have tried to follow the path set out there is some success but never to the claimed 80% levels. This leads some to question whether they have understood things or have missed out on some key point orissue. They then waste hours trying to find the path to enlightenment which probably does not exist and never did. If you can go from a 25% strike rate to a 40% rate at average 3.3/1 odds, then you can be a very happy bunny.

Robert

hello all...today,s ratings l 3.50 top certain justice 2nd norton...l 4.20 top sir desmond 2nd seignosse...too much conflict with ratings so no bet although seignosse does look good today..yesterday island house,i did,nt back it at the prices on offer,had it been evens+ i would have backed i.h without any shadow of doubt,he beat his main rivals convincingly,but now and again you get the freefourinternet types,it,s all experience,and at least no damage was done..

410 l


first six in betting

vanderlin
feet so fast
fire up the band
online investor
nemo fugat
my only sunshine
pick up sticks


from these nemo fugat and pick up sticks can be scrubbed immediatley.

vanderlin class 65 form 4,coming from a class 94 race where not expected and showed improvement.

feet so fast class 43 form 13,coming from class 67 was beaten as expected. scrubbed

fire up the band class 65 form 7,coming from class 105 where showed improvement and is now well placed.

online investor class 34 form 14, coming from class 156(debut this season) beaten as expected.

my only sunshine,class 29 form 19, coming from class105(fire up the band) and is not weighted to reverse placings.scrubbed

that leaves three, a book,


fire up the band looks a good thing, however another method makes online investor a big danger and i will leave the race alone.

I evaluated this race last night and made Fire Up The Band and Vanderlin the class/form horses.

I liked the way FUTB won last time in a fast time however the draw would be a major concern today hence I made `V` the most probable.

And yes, like you O.Investor has to be a danger.

I`ll not make any final decisions until going conditions are confirmed as there is heavy rain every where today.

Going conditions aside, I suspect the end result will be the same as yours, ie - no bet.

***** any thoughts on the 7.40 Thirsk ? *****

Cheers,

hi determined


sashay - very hrd race last time

best port - showed a downturn in form

bawsain - not tried at this (here to win or stamina)


i wont play although sashay could be the one



the 210l looks a likely race

[This message was edited by Barney on May 11, 2002 at 08:38 AM.]

Re` Thirsk - no mention of the winner Jack Dawson ?


2.10 Lingfield looks very tricky. Again the going will play a major part in this race.

Cheers,

determined

not gone through his whole career but on whats shown in the post today no chance(in my opinion)

hi gents,

some good pointers again this morning barney your really helping me with your posts just thought id let you know that its much appreciated , having a quiet day today.
mac.

no mention of the 3.10 or 3.40 at ling, and what about the 8.00 at warwick,come on chaps wakey wakey..

I would be interested in hearing your views on the 3.40, from a VDW perspective.Personally i think its between Wahchi and Bandari.
I think First chapter may find it a little tough living with these two.
Long goodbye likewise.Mexican looks completely outclassed and i would worry about Mamool's jockey.If you use Max's filters he fails three of them.
Any thoughts?

good morning everyone,

mac

glad that you think its some help,just remember though that i'm new to this as well.

there is something else to be learned from looking at what really happened, AS ALWAYS.

spend just as much time after looking at what was missed and then every time it gets a bit easier.I AM SURE PEOPLE WITH MORE EXPERIENCE WOULD HAVE GOT THE WINNER.


investor,

if we all put up an analysis of one race each then surely things would soon get up to speed and create some disscussion.

ive been giving analysis all week,and what response did i get f... all so what,s the point i think i,ve upset too many people, there was significance in the races i mentioned yesterday i.e tempting fate and demasta which were good things (in my opinion maybe some light bulbs will start lighting up in peoples heads one day...good day

investor,

i missed your post as i already gone out,

pity as well because i had lumped on demasta last time and would have done so again had i seen it

Investor

I don't think the lack of response has anything to do with you up-setting people. Have you upset anyone? I read the thread regularly and was not conscious that you had. Rather, I think its because you (and Barney too) while being generous in offering your views pre the races concerned, do so rather cryptically, in ways that don't really lend themselves to comment.

Please accept that I am NOT being critical here. The two of you are contributing more than anyone else at the moment. But I don't find it easy to understand the logic of your selections (successful or otherwise) and therefore comment, and others may find a similar difficulty.

Any posted analysis is bound to be a relatively brief summary of a great deal of study and thought, and can look banal. But to achieve your objectives of providing a point of departure for a constructive discussion, I would respectfully suggest you need to convey a little more of your reasoning.

As I've made clear, I am unwilling to post analyses on this forum prior to racing, but have no problem with doing so after racing if there are members willing to do the same and engage in critical (though hopefully constructive) discussion. To test the water, below is my analysis of the Lingfield Derby trial, posted in a different forum at about 11.30am yesterday and sent at about the same time to Determined on a personal basis. I'm not for a moment suggesting that its other than fairly banal, but I hope the reasoning leading to my conclusions is fairly clear, and exploring each of our reasonings to conclusions seems to me to be the potentially constructive way forward:

"Isolating the class/form horse is not unproblematic with this race, and depends upon whether one believes that VDW would, for this
purpose, carrry form forward from one season to another. If one does believe VDW did (as Guest from the Gummy thread clearly does), then
the class/form horse is Bandari: if one doesn't the c/f is Wahchi.

Taking Bandari as the c/f for the purpose of this post, is he supported by other factors? To a considerable extent. He is second to Long Goodbye on the VDW ability rating, but VDW himself expressed reservations about the appropriateness of this with very young horses and suggested sfs instead. There is also, of course, the ORs. On
these two ratings, he is clear top - best sf 106, cf Wahchi's 101; OR 110, cf Mamool 106, Wahchi 105. Further, he's won at higher class (162) than any of the other runners except Long Goodbye (230), but the value of LG's win is suspect, being Italian. The question marks re Bandari are the obvious ones: will he get the 1.5 miles; will he be sufficiently fit to beat his rivals?

The principal rival is probably Wahchi, an ability rating just 9 points below Bandari (75 cf 84); second best sf, well clear of the others; 5lb below Bandari on ORs; and with a decent run under his belt this season. But, the run this season apart, with what can be implied from that for his fitness, there is no clear basis on which
he can be preferred to Bandari.

And the same applies to the four other runners. With the possible exception of Long Goodbye - difficult to judge on his main Italian win, and seemingly with something of a temperament problem - its hard to make a case for any beating both Bandari and Wahchi on the evidence in the Form Book.


Conclusion

On what is in the Form Book, Bandari, if fit enough, should win. But with a question mark about fitness (as this is presumably essentially
a prep. race on route to the Derby rather than an objective in its own right), and it not yet being proved that he gets the 1.5m, together with the usual concerns about the capacities of horses to
improve dramatically from 2 to 3 or while 3, he would not be a bet for me. Neither would I be willing to oppose.

A carefully staked bet on Bandari and Wahchi at the prices in the Post's forecast would return just over 50% profit, which is probably excellent value. But 2/1 on that one of the two wins is not the sort of bet I place."

Perhaps, for the avoidance of any charge of prejudice against Italians, I should stress that its the value of Italian racing prize money vis-a-vis prize money in Britain that I regard as suspect, not anything else!

As usual a brilliant post and I couldn`t agree more with your comments to Barney and Investor.

Lets be honest non of us on here at present can possibly post pre race in the same way as Guest did but what we can do is have a very good go.

Pre or post race doesn`t matter but it will generate discussion which is what its all about.

But yes we need a little more detail from those willing to participate.

I`m off work from Wednesday primarily to `lose` some money at York which means I`ll have time to post a few evaluations and in my opinion there`s enough current season form to allow us to post some good `stuff` whether it lead to winning selections or not doesn`t matter.

We`ll all learn from them together.

INVESTOR - you certainly haven`t upset me and well done if you won money yesterday.

GUEST - a very good weeks racing so I think you ought to make a brief return just to let us know you are alive and well. Not neccesarily before the days events but after.

cheers,

thanks for your response,i think cryptic is the wrong word,maybe i lack being thorough in my evaluation i would agree with that.i don,t see the point of post race analysis it does,nt serve any purpose from my point of view,any selection i put on this thread is based on logic,if one knows where to look and possible selections can be discounted quite quickly,did you not see the logic behind DEMASTA yesterday and SIR EFFENDI earlier in the week,i sincereley hope you did,you,ve obviously put a lot of hard work into this subject,over the years,for which you have my utmost respect.i,ve followed this thread from the beginning and contrary to what you,or anybody else thinks or says,i know i,m playing on the right football pitch,i would gladly explain my selection method to you and given time i,m sure you would understand the logic behind them,one final comment vdw said "i like to judge a horse by what it has done in public and by no other means"

Investor

Yes, I agree "cryptic" was not apposite. "Very abbreviated" would have been better.

sorry guys for being cryptic, i have a great deal of difficulty posting up analysis for winners and prefare to show the race they are in, then people can either choose to look or not, i have read all the same posts on here as everyone else so i often assume that we are all checking the same factors with that in mind here is a post race analysis of yesterday.

although fast feet and fire up the band were closely matched using my rating i had discarded feet so fast for not getting into the finish and coming 2nd four lengths adrift, in hindsight on even closer inspection of the form the horse had been blocked in at the 1f post (still travelling well) and on the appearance of the gap scooted 4l clear of the pack but could not reach the winner in hindsight i should have been more thorough as he obviously (NOW) HAD THE EASIER RACE,but if i had identified that before the race i wouldn't have posted it, and i still wouldn't have bet because of online investor(who will win a big race).

that was very brief,i,ve lost countless posts because i use interactive t.v which involves a remote control and one finger ( sounds disgusting) after fifteen mins a lot of the time i get locked out,pretty sole destroying when you,ve put up a decent post so they will stay abbreviated for the time being,i mentioned two horses in my last post are they not worthy of comment,you also say you don,t see logic in my selections, would you please expand on this..