hi all,
With the flat getting into swing big hitters will be flexing the muscles shortly no doubt Hawk Wing has a lot going for him tomorrow.
mac.

hello there..a lot of punters would have got there fingers burnt today with hawk wing,there was nothing remotely in the same class as h.w and r.o.g and a book should have been made,and what a result.

I trust you backed them both. Good luck to you.

I had my biggest bet for years on Hawk Wing today.

By the end of the year this horse will have mopped up all the top 8 - 10 Furlong races so hopefully my losses are only lent.

Cheers,

hi investor,

re- burnt fingers what about the ride spencer gave that horse today sitting still mid div over 2 furlongs out come on frank says i you can press the button anytime now, the lad was ill after the race, he has a similar problem from stall 5 tomorrow in the 1000gns, hope he does a better job for luca than he did for aidan , make no mistake young mr spencer cost that horse its classic today.
mac.
p.s.hope that does`nt sound like sour grapes lol

The whole race was a shambles and blaming Spencer isn`t the answer.

You cant blame spencer, he gave the horse a good ride by my reckoning, but trying to blame the loss on lack of pace was a bit stupid. Taking nothing away from ROG who is a true G1 horse in his own right, Hawk Wing did exceptionally well to get so close and would have won by some distance if he'd had a draw in the high numbers.
The far side is riding considerably faster as it hasnt been watered, a point made by W.Swinburn in the paper this morning and proved to great effect by Marsad and the other horses drawn high over 6f before the guineas. Hawk Wing was the only horse in the stands side group in the first five. In the light of this, anyone backing a horse drawn low in the guineas AFTER seeing the result of the 3.15 should have a word with themselves.
regards,

you come across on your last two posts has being a bit p....d off,i,m sure your right r.e your comment on hawk wing he will have his day,remember this saying NIL ILLEGITMO CARBORUNDUM,goodnight

Investor,

I wasn`t p---- o-- after the race merely frustrated thinking what might have been. Infact I have never been so confident about a horse winning hence my large bet and that is despite Statajack`s comment.

Racing has a way of balancing out ones luck and only 10 minutes later my other decent bet on the day namely Tedstale won by a similar margin to that that HW was beaten.

Statajack,

Approx` £140,000 in recorded bets on course for HW means many people will be asking themselves alot of questions this morning.
Lets be honest the race was a shambles and our top racecourse allowing a Championship race to be run under such varying conditions is rather disappointing.
Advice please - ha HW come to the boil ?

Cheers,

i did,nt answer your question,i looked at the 2000 g for ages yesterday morning,i can totally understand your selection,i don,t need to tell you it was a two horse race,i was,nt 100% confident with h.w.statajacks comments did,nt even enter my thoughts,anyway i dutched them 7pts@7/4 3pts@9/1 making 20 pts on the bet i also backed ALWAYS using a method of my own,i won,t be playing today though, i don,t think G will be much value now i think conquestadora has a very good chance..ps keep an eye on quarter moon could be a dark un...cheers investor

Determined,
Hawk Wing would have walked it given a fair chance and showed himself to be a champion (in waiting anyway) by getting so close to the winner. The point is that if they placed their bets on horses drawn low after knowing the result of the 3.15, they only have themselves to blame. Youre right in that the first classic of the year was a shambles and it makes you wonder about the intelligence of some course executives. I note that the running rail has now been moved inwards a few yards to try and stop the bias but it will be interesting to see what happens in the 2.30 this afternoon.

Be left in no doubt that I am not talking in hindsight.

Was today the plan ? I thought not and let him run unbacked.

Without doubt this was a class above these today and a win was a formality if that was the plan.

Rated 100, in my opinion this was to be a stepping stone to the valuable 16 fur` Goodwood hcap in 2 weeks time (0-100) therefore if winning today he`d not be able to take his place in the said £25k race.

I was therefore some what gutted when he won today.

Any of the experts back him today ?

Cheers,

firstly i,m no expert,but i would like to give my opinion. iv,e no form books but f.b looked totally outlassed lto after being raised from class250 to 1202 priced12/1 so was not on today dropped in class on ground he likes over a shorter trip,i never looked at the race to be honest with you but i understand your point.you must strive to gain more confidence in your own ability to evaluate,i dropped a b.....k today with conquestadora but no worries,the thing is none of the experts are going to say anything beforehand and who can blame them,so it,s down to cold unemotional logic,i think that,s how he put it.come on statajack we don,t want anything spelling out.

hi determined,
no expert & was otherwise engaged today so had a look tonight at first ballot after reading your post he won f.t.o. last season also after a similar hurdling campaign a semblance of consistency there then or a consistent training pattern at least , he definately had the capability has won in much higher class than this has no problem carrying weights he`s a bull of a horse, theres a race at goodwood rated 105 think he won it last year so the trainer might be targeting that one again right enough.hav`nt looked at the rest of the field but sure he`d be on prospective short list.
mac.

Investor / MTK,

Thanks for your feedback. Rest assured everything was there for FB yesterday except in my opinion one important factor and it was only this point which stopped me from investing on him,

ie - the Goodwood race in 2 weeks time is a 0 -100 rated hcap worth approx` £25k to the winner and £10k to the runner up (as much as todays race).

Winning would have seen a rise in the wgts and therefore he`d be unable to take part in the Gdwd race.

There are 2 trains of thought here,

(1) he wasn`t supposed to win today and if you watch the way he was ridden that was a definite possibility

(2) win and then onto listed / group 3 races over 16-18 furlongs.

Whatever, I missed the boat.

Cheers,

345 k


first six in betting

top dirham
dance on the top
nose the trade
duke of madena
faithfull warrior
inchdura(jt)
manicani(jt)
putra pecan(jt)
the judge(jt)


three most consistent

top duram 7
duke of modena 12
nose the trade 12
dance on the top 14
manicani 14
other consistent(?) horses indian plume

three highest ability

nimelo 200
duke of modena 150
the judge 130
(top diram 115)


five most recent runs

duke of modena
nose the trade
thihn
highland reel
dance on the top
indian plume
elmhurst boy
inchdura
the judge
manicani

common to all lists duke of modena


on inspection of the form

i wouldnt be suprised to see indian plume to step up to this grade beating duke of modena and top dirham


all comments graciously accepted

Barney,

I would say you were 'going against the odds' to back Indian Plume.

Barney,

How are my thoughts turning up on the VDW thread?

He may well indeeed step up in class and do it, but DOM and NTT are my top pair.

Oldtimer

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Barney -I've not looked at the race in question but if you are going to use recent runs as a filter don't forget to add a second list of horses that runs well when fresh. Selected horses should then satisfy the other filters plus recent runs list or fresh horses list.

Be lucky
All the best
hedgehog

Where have you been ?

This thread is slowly dying. This is what we need, ie - race evaluations before racing.

With regards todays Jubilee - in my opinion it has to be filed in the too difficult drawer.

Ground conditions alone effect so many in this race. Added to that, there are so many unexposed types who could show improvement.

A watching race which will tell is a great deal.

Good luck if you `play`.

Cheers,

been to wales mate golfing

not had a look at the races for four days, won a tenner yesterday though, 64pts on nefyn, what a course. yum yum.

it wasnt a bet for me either, just thought i would put up something for discussion. thanks guys for the replys, had a few winners though that i thought were good things.

seems to lack something now this thread doesn,t it??

come back guest!!!