I rather like Oldtimer find some of the vdw rather complex.However,the principles i find intriguing.I dont mean this at all disparingly but how would you vdw`s rate the Imperial Cup at Sandown tomorrow.There`s 2 of your favourite numerical form lines 111 and also a couple of horses including the fav with near similar numerical form lines.Perhaps some of you would volunteer an opinion on this which would be interesting.Also I would be grateful if someone could answer my question from the previous page regarding calculation of prize money by dividing runners with prize money or vice versa.Essentially,is this a manual job or available through the net or other means.Ta in advance.

when looking at the early examples is there any difference between the forcast starting price and the actual starting price to determine the first 5/6 in the betting(from the point of looking through the examples)or do i have to get the racing posts as well?

Good Evening Gents (and Ladies if there are any)

A rare journey from the other side.

It occured to me since Swish notched up a significant statistic on the board, to cast my eye over other prominent stats.

One that leaps out when I log on is that the VDW thread now represents about 20% of the total posts.

On another thread, and in my earlier days on this board, I posted a few lines about the 80/20 principal. Since we`re now at the 80/20 point, would anybody care to stand up and say I`m not only well in profit but I make my living in accordance with his teachings.

Perhaps I`m not the best to speak on this matter, since I haven`t read all the posts but I have noticed however, that whenever a direct question is asked, and the answer is obviously a bit difficult, out come the smoke and mirrors, read between the lines, you`ve misunderstood me and I`ll disappear off the board for a while.

As I say, I`m not the best representative from the other side but I would be interested.

Do you make any money, or is it a non profit making talking shop?

Yours

111
.

.

A Rather Important Footnote

Please direct all derogatory replies through QUINELLE, he put me up to it.

Dear 111,
1-5 you get no answers,
Yours
Swish

Plenty of racing today and some interesting scenarios with reagrds to class and form. At Sandown the 2 indicated races are the Imperial Cup and the Novices handicap hurdle. The former shows Majlis as the class/form horse with Polar Red a close 2nd. Certain factors sound the warning bells for both horses though and no clear selection emerges.

In the 2.45 many might be surprised to find Intersky Falcon as the class/form horse, but further considerations show a likely danger in First Flight who is without a winning class rating but posesses some unexposed form values.

At Wolves, the class/form horse is Invader. At Ayr the indicated race shows Running Moss as class/form. Chepstow has 2 indicated races with the first showing conflict and Piece Of Cake as the class/form horse and factors against Jocks Cross in the other. Warwick has Luzcadou as the class/form horse but again with serious factors against.

A tricky day again then with many class/form horses not having the required profile. This is not to say there are no bets to be had today though involving the above races.

hello guest..my thoughts,GALAPIAT DE MESNIL good thing,CHOISTY always had the beating of luzcadoo and macgorge over this distance,also a good thing (in my opinion) INVADER a few factors against,and nose the trade well i remembered the farmer jack post nothing of interest in the running man race.kind regards investor.

Investor - As hinted at, another method showed 2 good things today which you have spotted in Choisty and Galapiat Du Mesnil. There were plenty of various factors against the class/form horses today proving yet again that those who just follow the numerical picture will not consistently find winners. VDW devised many ways to crosscheck his findings such as the method used to find todays 2 bets. A small clue was included in my earlier post today as to one factor that was used to determine these 2 horses. Congratulations are due if you have spotted and understood the reasons behind the selections.

When everything lines up in support of the class/form horse under the consistency method, then it is time to get your betting boots on. No doubt next week will provide such a situation.

TODAYS RACING – AFTERWARDS

GUEST – I missed your 12.43pm message today as I managed to find a 2nd VDW thread on the board. I evaluated 4 races today namely the 1.15 and 2.15 Chepstow, 3.20 Sandown and 3.35 Wolverhampton. I managed to come up with the same class/form horses as you but unfortunately that’s where the `agreement` ends, ie -

- I incorrectly thought Piece Of Cake was a bet
- I could not have Jocks Cross and thought again incorrectly Billinsgate was a bet

Going back through both races afterwards and having taken both yours and Swish`s comments into account I now realize why Galapiat du Mesnil was a bet and why there was no bet in the 2.15 Chepstow.

- I was confident Majlis couldn`t win today and equally confident Polar Red would win. Yes despite the 23 lbs hike in the official hcap. “ Trainers hcap/place there own horses and PR now goes to Cheltenham with a 7 lbs penalty yet will carry less weight than today ”. At 7/4 however he couldn`t be backed today.
- **** you mentioned unexposed form today and Impek had an excellent chance as I stated at 1.05pm today on the other VDW thread ****

Turning to the 2.45 Sandown. This is surely the sort of race we should be very careful with given that there is always the chance an `unexposed` horse with a lot in hand ( only known to the trainer ). Looking at First Flight`s form I can see he was a likely danger and close inspection of his form has taught me something. Thank you. With regards Intersky Falcon being the class/form horse especially as he was 11 points behind Idaho d`Ox on ability was a surprise however again closer study of both horses form now leads me to the same conclusion.

I`M LEARNING SOMETHING FROM ALL YOUR POSTS SO AGAIN A BIG THANK YOU. THERE ARE SO MANY FACTORS TO CONSIDER JUST USING THE MAIN CLASS/FORM/CONSISTENCY METHOD.

You`ve mentioned the crosscheck today so its back to the books to research this area. Whilst today has taught me one or two things it has also raised a/n question, ie – I obviously was under the impression that if the class/form has has too many factors against then the race is no bet. That clearly is not the case . Am I right in thinking that VDW wrote `each race has a different problem to solve`, ie – if the class/form horse has factors against then possibly unexposed form is the key.

Regards,

Further in depth evaluation ( hard work ) has made me see how my initial thought that Piece Of Cake was a selection was infact so far off the mark.

If there was ever an example of finding `a winner in a race` then Galapiat du Mesnil was it.

The day I can come to this conclusion before the race will be the day I start getting a little excited.

That said, even learning alot this weekend I know I`ve still not scratched the sevice yet.

My old form books should arrive this week ( thanks Fulham as your suggested source proved worthwhile although I think Barney must have got there first )so hopefully I`ll be learning much more from now on.

Thanks again to GUEST has your comments continue to educate me. Also, I cannot forget SWISH who`s comments I also value.

Back to more study, ie - Choisty.

Regards,

Choisty - Galapiat Du Mesnil.

Guest

You say these two where found using other vdw methods, I wonder if you could tell me the name of the methods? I except there was conflict with the class/form horses in these races, but to me there was even bigger conflict in putting these two up as good bets. I made GDM the class/form horse in the race, and was not happy with the form relating to this distance. I am at a lose how Investor and Determined could make him the winner in the race. Choisty gives me even bigger problems, is it not taking a lot on trust to back a horse that has only finished 2 races in 2 years, and one of them tail off. I made Macgeorge, the class/form horse, and was worried about Choisty, and the distance. It would never have entered my head to back C, with a record like that in the recent past.

I am obviously missing something, so any help would be appreciated, even the smallest of nudges. Maybe Investor or Determined would like to help.

Regards

mtoto

look for improved performance in speed at higher class then dropped to perform at a distance that the horse has previously performed well with the other factors although hidden.


hope that makes senese without speeling it out

Dear Mtoto,
This is interesting, because using things you have taught me, I felt Galapiat was a near cert, I have stopped worrying when they have dropped in distance, because that's what my spread sheets are telling me.
On the other hand I could not see any reason for backing Choisty at all.
And I also thought Macgeorge was a near cert.
It seems to me that Guest, in general, picks them a different way to every one else.
However, seeing as Guest never says any winners in advance he could say anything he felt like after the event.
Guest, I wouldn't worry about naming one or 2 before the event because no one will have a clue how you have picked them anyhow,
Yours
Swish

Mtoto - The 2 bets Choisty and Galapiat Du Mesnil were found via class and form, but not using the consistency method. This is just one method where class combined with form will always confound ratings followers.

GDM had won a similiar class race with the weight over c&d before thus gaining a lot of plus points, but there were further significant pointers to his chance. Note his last race and what the trainer did next.

A Piece Of Cakes form wasn't quite up to scratch when compared with GDMs.

Choisty only really goes at Warwick these days, but doesn't race too often reserving his best for the track where he had twice won the race in question before. Again his last run sounded the warning signals when looked at very carefully.

i would like to offer you some advice,if your really and truly interested in this thread,instead of trying to wind guest up all the time,why not research the horses he,s put up,there are massive clues all over this thread,if you know where to look.so before you codemn someone check your facts,because believe me if you do find the factors,you will know that guest is 100% genuine and that 80%+ can be achieved, well he is,and it can. regards investor

Well there are a few problems about that aren't there?
He has only named a handful he has ever picked and IF Guest,s methods do work I will hardly suss it from a handful of races.
Secondly how many of my winners would I lose then, because I went with his method instead of mine. For a start I would never be on any longshots so that's a lot of money lost (or not won).
Next he doesn't appear to be interested in anyone elses views or advice. A lot of people who write to the VDW thread just get ignored, to me that's bad manners.
Next this 80% thing. Yes it could well be possible but how often is there a bet?
Not often judging by all the races he reckons there is no bet.
I have probably spent more thousands of hours than anyone working on it.
The only possible way that Guest could show me he can pick more winners than me (or should I say make more profit) is if he named them in advance or put up say 30 past races to look at.
A lot of it is contradictory.
It is a CERTAIN fact that if his ways pick Choisty before Macgeorge, there has to be a lot of times when his way fails then because my way wins,
Yours
Swish

Guest-Barney-Swish,

Thanks for your thoughts on the two horses.

Choisty.

I was aware of the horses record at Warwick and in this race in particular. That was the main reason I didn't back Macgeorge, but I did think the idea was to take the gamble out of the equation. While I except the trainer was out to win this race, how could he, or anyone be sure at 12 years of age the horse would perform as expected?

Galapiat Du Mesnil.

This is a little harder, 2 of you have mentioned the C&D win. It was this win that worried me, a 3 horse race. Only 1 finished, and GDM was the fittest horse in the race. To me the win proved nothing except the horse was alive and had a leg in each corner. The distance was far shorter than any of his other wins, and I could see no relevance in that race compered to today's. If this race had been over 3 miles I would have been interested. Guest says look at the last race and what the trainer did with him. The last 2 races where long distance cross country races, in which he ran very well only being beaten after the last. On both occasions he was the favourite, he was then put away to freshen up. I don't think the plot was this race, this was a prep for something else. This is an example of why it pays to stick to good consistent horses but on this occasion I think luck played a part.

Investor.

I must take my hat of to you. You have a superb racing brain, to have cracked vdw from the examples given by Guest in such a short time. I can't even get the same class/form horses as him. Although I have now got 10 out of 10, my way on the old examples. Still struggling with LFV, but it may be one of the other methods I didn't know about. Guest could you please give me a quick run down on the Rivage Bleu method, (or anyone else who knows about it). I can't find the method anywhere.

Regards

Yesterday`s racing has certainly opened up an interesting discussion.

MTOTO

You suggesting that maybe I could help certainly gives me a massive boost as be left in no doubt I`m along way from understanding this VDW methodology.
With regards GDM I thought he was the most probable winner for exactly the same reason`s as Barney mentioned earlier. Added to that I feel the hidden factors which are not really hidden really confirm he was " a winner in the race. "
Guest made reference to what the trainer did after his previous race. A look at the horses whole career gives the answer.

Was it Nick Mordin who stated that the majority of horses have a `pattern` ?

In summary I believe GDM was the only horse capable of winning this race, ie - all the opposition were being asked to do something they hadn`t done before whereas GDM had done it.


DISTANCE -I always thought this factor was absolutely vital. Whilst clearly very important it possibly doesn`t matter if you one is so far ahead on all the other factors.


CHOISTY - I`ve not had chance to study this race yet but I`m looking forward to trying to find where the class/form part fits in.

HARD WORK - one thing is for sure I don`t mind hard work but one can only do so much. I`m coming to the conclusion that every horses full career needs to be scrutinsed before investing with confidence.

MTOTO again - was Impek a consideration yesterday? I`d be interested in your comments sometime at your convenience of course.

My last message was sent without having sight of Mtoto`s. I must have been preparing mine at the time Mtoto`s arrived.

Yes it takes me along time to send a message.

Regards,

Further to my last letter.
Do you/Guest mean 80% in handicaps?
If so how many a month approx?
If people are always going to ignore direct questions, like Three legs and numerous others have asked how can you expect to not get criticised?
And what will be the reply? I already know.
No answer,
Yours
Swish