I didn`t respond last night as I was busy watching an excellent film ( sometimes one has to forget about this tough pastime ).

I made all 3 of the following class/form horses yesterday,

It Takes Time, Flagship Uberalles and Frenchmans Creek

but non were backed.

I`ve only ever backed one odds on horse in my life ( which lost ) which clearly therefore ruled out ITT for me.

FU in my opinion had such a hard race at Cheltenham and was no value.

FC was the most likely bet of the 3 for me but unlike Mtoto I couldn`t obtain a reasonable price hence no bet.

I had one bet (my first for a week) yesterday and yes it lost making my losing run to be 8 (oh dear).

The investment ran in the 5.15 Sandown.

Back to my question of last evening. I`d appreciate any comments from as many of you as possible with regards the last 2 races at Sandown.

Come on Investor lets have your thoughts.

Cheers,

the start of the flat is where many graves are dug

this is not just because the flat trainers arnt going full speed its because the jumps trainers are winding down as well.

only the yards themseleves know where on the winding up/ winding down curve their charges are . i think this year is even a bit stranger in the overall picture because of the very firm ground the last month, some trainers will like it some will not take any chances.



determined

i thought that i found a perfect roushayd type in the 440 and its form was good enough in comparisson to others,obviously i need to learn more crosschecks. i wouldnt have backed on the flat at san yesterday with your money(see above)


guest

vdw never gave up trying to show people how to use the tools,there is always someone new who wants to know.

pipedreamer,

i backed FU,FC,B as you will note all lost

investor,

you are being very very unfair, i seem to remember that you said you learned the method just by looking at guests examples for the past 6 months, talk about kick a man when hes down, not very sporting.

(not that i supose hes down for one minute)

[This message was edited by Barney on April 28, 2002 at 06:48 AM.]

I totally agree with you that April is and will always be a difficult month hence only 8 bets.

Difficult though it is I`ve never gone through April without a winner before and this is very disappointing and if I`m honest it is because of VDW (not a criticism of the methodology as I`m convinced it works), ie - I`ve not backed horses I would normally have seriously considered because they were not VDW.

Some of my methods do work and I must not lose sight of that.

Back to the April form and the unusual going conditions - I strongly believe the past 3 weeks flat racing will prove very informative and my notebook is already bulging.

J.Dunlop and G.Wragg to name just 2 trainers will I believe have a fruitful next 2 - 3 weeks from horses who have already shown their time is near.

Belvidian - at 8/1 yesterday I was nearly reaching for my wallet however close inspection of his form in my opinion suggested he needed really easy going. Watching him in the race he was climbing all over the ground and conditions clearly didn`t suit.

***** the horse that beat Rasid yesterday really caught my eye and I await his hcap mark with great interest.

Cheers,

Your`e on the board so what about comments on Sandown`s last 2 races.

Anybody else, also. Come on.

Hello All,

I'd like to thank Guest for his efforts. They are appreciated and I hope he reconsiders as he will be a great loss to this thread and those of us that are trying to get a better understanding of VDW.

Investor - in life sometimes you say things and they have repercussions that you didn't expect. I hope that was the case recently.

Can I ask will you be offering your thoughts on races if Guest no longer contributes to this thread?

All the best
hedgehog

Determined,

Although my methods are not VDW - obviously as I can't pick a NH winner in a one-horse race - I was fortunate with my only hcap Flat race at Sandown with Duke Of Modena, though The Judge was my first choice. I also got the first two in the Mile, though wrong way round - but the CSF paid 9 pounds plus change.

So there are bets to be found on the Flat even thsi early in the season. Normally I wait until the start of May though.

Will be interested to compare my thoughts with your VDW thoughts when you get round to the Flat.

Regards

Oldtimer

good morning..i wish you,d read what i say properly,swish asked guest a question to which he replied yes,my point is why only put some selections up i don,t want nothing spelling out,and never have done,i also respect guest,and his postings have been very enlightening,even statajack thought some selections a bit odd,iv,e e.mailed guest about six times he knows exactly how i interprit vdw,he also told me he could,nt say to much more without giving the game away,so don,t blame me for his departure if he choses to go

firstly explain what you mean r.e repurcussions,i do my posts via interactive t.v i,ve written some big posts,it seems if i,m on for too long my posts dissapear in answer to your other question yes i would put my sels up but not in depth for reasons ive just mentioned.

These two seemed to have caused a bit of consternation. For the same reason I didnt back Flagship at Cheltenham I didn't back him yesterday.The ratings showed conflict with surprisingly enough Cenkos, but there could have been no way on known form that I'd have considered backing C. I did back Frenchmans Creek and have no complaints, he beat all the known dangers as expected but again, what can you do about Martin Pipe? BB and DS just did not look good enough on the book, similarly Landing Light ran unaccountably badly at Punchestown. If your study has been done properly and your horse still gets beat theres nothing you can do about it. Thats racing, so why beat yourself up over something you have no control over?
regards,

i use ratings to aid me in my selection process let,s look at IT TAKES TIME class.form the only danger in my opinion was brother joe which i rated 88 very high as opposed to 70 for i.t.t normally one to leave but on closer inspection of form,i.t.t was a good thing in my opinion.also first three in r.p betting 10/11.5/2.10/1 does that not tell you a story.

i looked at island light in the 5.15 at sandown but don,t forget that in sytematic betting he left roushhard for reasons which should be obvious (better class horses) with regard f.u i had conflict on my ratings it looked very tight with two other horses and there was some decent form and for me to close to call frenchmans creek was,nt in the first four in my ratings,which were ad hoc 71 bounce back 58 beau 41 montifault 38 the first two rated finished first and fourth the ratings i use often tell me when not to bet,and of course if everything lines up well you know what to do by the way r.e flagship only two of his thirteen wins on that ground,not very encouraging

Island Light wasn`t the one for me and in my opinion he was a false favourite, ie - a 0-83 (D) win at Pontefract albeit with 9-10, well supported and a fast time race wasn`t in my opinion the form to win yesterdays race and that was even taken into account expected improvement from a horse who`s stable can do no wrong.

I was reasonably confident the race lay between DOM and The Judge, ie - the overall class of DOM looked good and he was in form. TJ won a weak SPRING CUP `all out`. The `all out` in my opinion was not a true reflection of his run last week and I merited his win better than the 3 lbs given to him by the official hcapper.
The draw was a slight concern but all things considered he was open to further improvement and receiving 10 lbs off DOM was a value bet for me.

I`m still seething now because I`ve fallen into the same trap as last year, ie - I regularly narrow a field down to 2-3 probables often getting the winner. This year it was my intension to back all the probables when prices allow but I didn`t.

Both DOM and TJ should have been backed at the prices availible.

**** your point re` Roushayd and other horses in the field with greater ability (rating). In my opinion there are many instances when horses with higher ability ratings can safely be ignored for many reasons.

That said, if time allows rating every race this season for `ability` will I`m sure give me plenty of food for thought.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Investor - the repurcussion I was thinking of was the loss of Guest as a contributor to this thread. Looking back at my post it could be deemed threatening and that was not the intention.

I look forward to your pre-race posts in whatever level of detail you wish to make them.

Determined - I have not looked at Saturdays races yet so can not comment. Sorry.

All the best
hedgehog

Re` your earlier post. The flat really gets started this week so lets hope there`s a few nice winners out there for us all whether it is VDW or not.

I`m hopeful from what I`ve seen over the past 2-3 weeks that the winners (for me) will soon be there for the taking. How they will fit with VDW we`ll just have to wait and see.

For starters and to wet the appetite I wonder how the experts feel the 2000 Guineas winner namely Hawk Wing fits in with VDW ?

In my opinion sometimes all we need to do is follow what we see with the naked eye and in Hawk Wing I beleive I`ve seen a Champion waiting to happen.

I echo your comments re` Guest.

I`m sure Guest will still be be keeping a close eye on things and lets hope Investor`s comments don`t have the effect they could have.

What we need now is for Investor and perhaps one or 2 more to put up comments, selections, etc before racing.

That of course does not include your good self who has put up evaluations before racing, nor of course Max and the others who name selections.

Investor

Come on Investor, this coming weeks racing will give you plenty of opportunity to take over the mantle left (hopefully in the short term) by Guest.

I`ve given you a helping hand by naming the 2000 Gns` winner.

I look forward to seeing your `investments`.

Cheers,

i apologise for the confusion on looking back i see you did not mention island light which i thought you had,that,s why i mentioned better class horses i.e the ones you mention.with regard to guest,i merely stated a fact even statajack has conflicting views from time to time,fulham also gave a breakdown of his bets,in profit yes but not 80% if guest came back on the thread,and said i was the sole reason he,d left this thread,i to would go,if not will give ratings as i use them,but it,s down to individual interpretation has to how they are used.

would you give me your analysis on sunset cristo,little owl,wing and a prayer,kenlis,gaye chance by e.mail of course i would be very interested in your comments

At this stage I am not in a position to pass comment on the VDW eg`s you refer to simply because I have not as yet study any of the VDW eg`s in detail.

I have gone as far as obtaining the majority of the old form books but study the old eg`s = no.

I have read all the literature many times and I will continue to refer back to them as I`m no where near understanding the many methods.

What I tend to do at present is rate every horse for ability, consistency and consider the last 3 runs of each horse. This of course is only useful for exposed types as 3yo`s are a different kettle of fish.

My strong view is that whatever method used the ones who will have most success from VDW are those who can read FORM properly and this I guess is where I`m stuggling.

Also, backing short priced horses is something I`ve never been comfortable with so one rule I will not be changing is backing anything below evens. Infact backing horses below 3/1 in the past has given me a nose bleed.

This week from Wednesday onwards is the start of `proper` racing so lets hope many of the posters on this thread start having a go at naming selections.

I`ll gladly correspond with you by E mail when I feel I`ve something important to discuss, share, etc.

Cheers,

Hi Determined

Sorry to butt in to your exchanges with Investor, but I think you are so right when you say that the real key is reading the form properly. And although I've many VDW examples still to work through, its in that area where I think the study of those examples has most to teach us: the Prominent King and Roushayd examples must rank as classics of in-depth reading of form, and there seem to be plenty more.

I also very much agree that the real Flat seaon starts in May, and share your instincts to focus upon the rather longer priced horses. When one is struggling to beat a 50% strike rate, as I am, there is a world of difference if one's average price is 9/2 than if its 7/4!

I`m pleased to hear from you. Its been about a week hasn`t it ?

This thread is so important to me and I`m sure to many more out there.

I hope Guest stays involved but knowing your out there means this thread will stay on the right track.

I would value your comments on the 5.15 Sandown yesterday. Please feel free to question my selections, comments etc as I know any comment you make will be to help and not criticise.

Cheers,