I asked if Lingo had your new found attribute that runs through all of VDW selections

Did it?

Yes Or No

Boozer

In my opinion your post shows the virtues of the Ability
ratings

investor,mtoto,boozer,...did you regard lingo as a class/form horse today....?.in van der wheils best bet, next best, method, rivage bleu, killeshin,. arthurs minstrel,ever smile travado, were they selected using differant methods, as investor stated rivage bleu was a horse without a winning rating can anyone give any pointers to these selections

I'm just back home and I am the worst for wear after celebrating Man United's demise but thank you for not abusing this thread.
If you don't like VDW fair enough but please bite your lip(which is more than I can do) and leave this thread to the serious VDW'ers

Gummy

Grundy
I think Determined Was spot on With Dumaran/Lingo,And vdw often said to go against the c/f horse was putting the odds against you,To my mind having looked at the form of all concerned,It became quite clear that Lingo Was a very good bet,Wether i should have let it run is debatable,But it had the charachteristics of a vdw good thing written all over it.


With regard Killeshin/Travado and friends,These horses are found via a different method,But the characteristics are there if looked at in the right way.

Investor,

I have read my last post a couple of times, I'm sorry but I can't see how it is confusing. I think I have explained many times the basis of my ability rating.

Grundy,

I think Lingo's race shows the confusion that the c/form method can produce. I don't think Lingo would have been a VDW selection. If it is, could someone tell my which method it comes from? (with an example). Looking at the ability ratings shown by Fulham, the first problem is Dumaran. Is it in form? I think the people that made Adiemus a form horse for the Rosebery would have to say yes. There seems to be a difference of opinion about that, so there could well be the same difference of opinion about D for this race. For those that decide he is in form they then have the problem about conditions, are they right for him in this race? Some, thought the distance was a worry, other myself included were more worried about the going. So is D in form, is he the c/form horse? If he is why would he be passed over, why would you then look for a lesser horse? why not just say (like Barney) too much conflict? Who is right, and who is wrong?

We then move on to Lingo, if anyone considers him as being consistent could they explain how? I have him as an improving horse, but raised in class. Not a big rise in class my way, but quite a substantial rise by VDW standards. Investor seems to make much of the second numerical picture, IF I understand this correctly, I don't see how he qualifies here. Ok he beat BS, but isn't that just another way of using collateral form?

I think I showed in my break down of the race, posted yesterday before the race. I thought Lingo was the must likely winner in the race. I would have wanted 4/1 before I put my money down. Suppose I will never get to the 80% winners, oh well!

Any thoughts or explanations, on any of this?

Be Lucky

mtoto,

so would I.


NO VDW'er should have been putting money down on lingo.

Barney/Mtoto
I did say in my post that i wasn't sure wether i did the right thing,Iv'e looked at a lot of horses over the past few months,Those off this thread and also other horses mentioned in the articles that are accesible to me.And the traits were there

Mtoto
Lingo did have consistent form going into the race yesterday,Not in the 3 consistent or top 4 ability but nevertheless consistent,I may have lacked temperement yesterday but that is all part of the learning process,I don't know how fulham or guest saw the race ( i hope all the rubbish that's been on here lately hasn't stopped them from posting) but i,m sure they were aware of what was running through Lingo's form.

Mtoto
You say R.e lingo "we have an improving horse stepping up in class' and of course your'e right Let's look.

May 2002 1 mile 2 class d 77 pontefract
june 2002 1 mile 2 class c 195 epsom

April 2003 1 mile 2 class c 121 pontefract
april 2003 1 mile 2 class b 174 epsom

of course that's only part of the story,The horse had proved in the past that it could take a step up in class,And if you want to know ehere the bus is going you ask the bus driver,Very clever the Ramsden's are.

Investor,

I still can't see how this makes the horse consistent. Do we just ignore the 3 runs before Pontefract, not forgetting he was favorite in 2 of them? I suppose I would be happy to forgive the Lincoln run as a pipe opener, but the other 2?

I said Lingo was an improving horse with a SLIGHT rise in class. However I make the Pontefract win the strongest race he had ever won. Don't you think VDW would have been put off by the weight? If you think weight is important. You must see there is a big difference between carrying 9st 8lbs in a conditions race, and carrying the same weight, giving away over a stone in a handicap

I don't think Lingo was a VDW selection!

Be Lucky

Investor

As regards Dumaran in the City and Suburban, the record suggests that he needs very specific going conditions to run to his best - ie exactly those he encountered on his final run of last season and very different to those at Epsom yesterday.

Whether that means, methodologically speaking, that Dumaran should have been regarded as not a form horse for the race, or as a form horse (and therefore the c/f) but one that fell out of consideration when one came to consider the various elements in the "Spells it all out" para. to which Johnd has regularly referred, is a matter on which I regret I have no confident opinion.

In all-aged handicap races do any of you look at the number of wins over the distance as a further aid to winner finding?, do you think vdw might have looked at this? what did he mean by the easy cracking of the handicap does any one know what he meant by this? and if so would they be willing to expand on the subject?.

mtoto
I have given part of the reasons i thought Lingo was a good bet,And again i will say the same factors that run through the vdw bets i have looked at,Both on and off this thread,Were evident in lingo's form. wether i got lucky is another thing,But from a form point of view the horse had all the credentials to win the race.

Mtoto
Over what distances were the 2 runs prior to the ponty win.

Investor

As a matter of interest, what is the lowest price at which you would have been prepared to back Lingo yesterday?

Walter,

I do, particularly when the class horse is under inspection.

If there is a consistent horse,at the distance about, but which is not the class horse in the race, then you end up in a situation not disimilar to yesterdays race. There are situations where class will carry a horse through an inadequate trip but spotting it is another thing.

Fulham
you have hit the part that gives me problems,The way i see it i wouldn't have gone lower than 5/2,from your'e personal point of view do you think i went against the odds,I respect your'e opinion,And it would be nice to see your'e thoughts on the subject.

H`caps and In Formness,

Distance, course, going and weight are in my opinion vital to a horses chances on any given day and I suspect the only time these factors can be `overlooked` is when a particular horse far outclasses the opposition.

How all these factors are used to weigh up a horses in formness the VDW way as yet I do not know and I dare say I will not have a full understanding until I have studied all the old examples.

The City and Surburban throws up questions of in formness with regards both Dumarann and Lingo.

Dumaran thrives on soft ground ( certainly didn`t have that yesterday ) and there was a doubt about the distance.

Both factors could clearly make him not a form horse. Whether that is the case with VDW methodology , I do not know.

Lingo, going conditions were not ideal for him either. Going aside, I guess many would say with a consistency rating of 20 (90-1) he wasn`t consistent.

That all depends on how we assess consistency.

He was clearly consistent when racing over 10 furlongs.

Now here`s the question, how do we really assess consistency ? Again, I do not know.

Determined
It's not how you judge consistency,It's being consistently in form for the race in question,I'm sorry if i'm going round in circles,But i can't explain things half as good as guest and Fulham,But i came to what i considered was an un emotional decision yesterday and wether i was right or wrong the horse won.