Fulham
Are you saying that TEMPERENT was the order of the day.

Investor

I don't know about that. I only back at odds on once in a blue moon, and when I do I want absolutely everything right.

Today Classified was much the most likely winner, but the distance was on the short side, the small field suggested there might not be much pace, and clearly it was a prep. race for the Stayers. All, for me, elements of doubt which (Hedgehog's bet apart) I was glad to see class was able to overcome, but which precluded a bet.

Fulham

I'm sorry my friend but i must disagree on the distance point,Classified had won a grade 2 hurdle over this dist at 9/2 if you remember that day (what a price)I know you don't like shorties but if that's the case 80% will always elude you.

Barney,

I will start by trying to answer your question first. I think the easiest way is to list the two horses separately.

Beacon Light,

A speed horse running against another speed horse. Running on ground he had failed on twice, losing both runs on heavy. Running on a course with an uphill finish, a feat only achieved in novice company. Giving weight to a superior horse, and having to change his style of running. He was against a faster (better) horse, and had to try to kill his finishing burst. A very good run in the circumstances, but as VDW said a hard race.

Marlbough,

Running on a course he had won at twice in 3 runs, against a horse the course didn't suit. This horse wouldn't have been fully wound up, I think it was meant as a prep race for Cheltenham. Prize money for second or third, very acceptable. Going went against other main contenders. Race run to suit, came to win between last two, finishing speed is this horse's forty. Nothing left, and form book comment fin tired. To me not the run of a horse in form. As I said before I think the Wetherby race bottomed him.

Fulham,

Thanks for your reply. However I am still at a loss to see how some of the winners of the examples were found using the c/form method. There are quite a few examples of this, one that stands out for me is Baronet. While I except the horse has class and form how is he the c/form horse in front of Petronisi? Petronisi has a far higher ability rating than Baronet, and must be in form as he beat Baronet in his last 2 races. I will say I am happy with Baronet being the BEST Horse in the race. The worry is the amount of time some maybe spending trying to make P out of form, and the conclusions they may come to in trying to achieving it. The other point I was trying to make is would you back the likes of Desert Hero. He maybe the c/form horse in relative terms, but are you happy he really has the class to win that race. I had him the form horse in the race, but class?

John,

I think you hit the nail firmly on the head re Classified.

Hedgehog,

I think I understand were your coming from, and the class of the horse was the only thing that beat you today. Although I had C the BEST HORSE in the race I wouldn't/couldn't back him. I was very worried (like Johnd) about the lack of pace in the race. Being the best in the race was based on recent form, so I didn't have your problem. Have to admit I looked at your horse a couple of times with a place only bet in mind.

Be Lucky

Investor

Yes, Classified had won over the distance but, judging by his record, his preferred distance is further, and presumably it is no accident that he seems to be headed for the Stayers.

I see Classified was returned at 8/13. My arithmetic is a bit shakey, but that suggests to me that if one achieves an 80% strike rate with similar bets, one will make 29 points per 100 bets. One would need over 60% to make any sort of profit at all. That strikes me as a hard way to make money, compared with backing good things at run at better odds. (Although there is obviously more inherent risk in a field of 27 than one of seven, I think that Spirit Leader was a more solid bet than Classified, without taking the prices into account.)


Mtoto

As I've said, I simply don't know. At present, I can't see any reason to regard Petronisi as other than a form horse, and therefore higher up the class/form pecking order than Baronet.

I don't have a problem with Desert Hero. The logic of VDW's approach is that if higher ability rated horses are not form horses, then a lower rated one that is a form horse is the c/f. The question then becomes is the c/f suited by the conditions of the race and here it seems to me that DH clearly scored. He had consistent form in handicaps over the same distance as the Imperial; had won on the course; the going was good and would thus cause no problem; and he carried no weight (9.8). One of those a month and we'd all be rich!

Fulham
There are other ways rather than level stake betting,But unfortunately as i'm sure your aware most of the good things are at the shorter end of the market,I have seen 3 horses in the last few days, that were picked using the same criteria and evaluation that was used to find Classified. These were bongo fury and see more business.There have been numerous over the last month or so,2that spring to mind are Solerina (twice ) and Like a butterfly. now lets look at staking just 3 horses using say Max's s/plan

Bongo fury + 137
see more business + 395
Classified + 188

In 3 bets that's a profit of 720 quid,There are far better ways to maximize your returns than level stakes.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Barney:
hedgehog,

I would be more bothered about watching yours next time out after a 47 ran a 148 to a couple of lengths in a class 232.

---

Very interesting!

Is this one of VDWs ways of rating horses?

cheers IMP

Fulham,

I’m not sure if I can assume from your example of potential profit on Classified that you bet level stakes only.I don’t remember VDW ever mentioning level stakes, just the opposite really.The staking plan he gave,before even mentioning selections or how to come about them ,would be ideally suited to horses with prices and strike rates like you mentioned in my opinion.As Investor has shown there are some very efficient staking plans on the board.

It’s interesting , that in the Prominent King example he said "With a sensible staking plan,the method works well for me." He didn’t say "with the staking plan in my previous letter." In later articles he mentions using a modified version of the original plan he gave and in the Let’s have a Lottery article says the bets were "applied to a simple staking method." This suggests, to me at least, that the various approaches may have had optimised staking arrangements.It also occurred to me very recently that his comments such as racing certainty, outstanding bet, good thing may have been in some way related to how much he was prepared to wager on them.

All the best.

Fulham
You say Classified had won over the distance,Which of course he had,So let's just put this into context he had won 2 from 3 at the distance and 7 from 8 on good or g/s i would say that's quite good wouldn't you.

I could not find a "cert" today so I messed about laying favs and backing a few to small stakes.
I managed to collar CEDAR GREEN (10-1 GOT 12-1 ON BETFAIR.
Why was this a bet(or worth a small bet)?
Swish

Swish
I once knew a girl called Teresa Green,But if there was a horse called the same i wouldn't back it LOL.Please put us out of our misery.

April 13, 1985

Page 19 of my copy of 'The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune'.

quote:

---

Just for information this should have been Mr Spiers last wager to date.

---

So no selections between 5/1/85 and 13/4/85.

Followed by the advice 'Let the first few months go by...'

Are the next examples those for Dec 16th 1985, so no examples within the 1985 flat season?

Investor

Yes, Classified had won twice over the distance and once over shorter. But most of his better performances have been over longer, and his targeting of the Stayers reinforces, in my mind, the suggestion that longer is preferred. The going wasn't an issue today, but I did indicate two other concerns, and in that context I was interested to hear David Johnson say after the race that he wasn't fully fit and would be fitter for Cheltenham.

As you and Bream have surmised, I'm basically a level stakes backer, having flirted with progressive staking and Mtoto's approach which has a lot to commend it. And I back EW when the price and other circumstances permit. I'm sure that this is not the strategy to maximise profits, but it does eliminate significant losing runs and thus maximises peace of mind, which is not to be under-estimated.


Arowson

Like you, I have no examples listed between 5/1/85 and 16/12/85.

[This message was edited by Fulham on February 17, 2003 at 08:52 PM.]

Fulham
David johnson said this AFTER the race,I have put my point across and given the same chance would back Classified again in the same circumstances.

Nobody has drawn any conclusions as to how you bet or stake,You threw some figures out I tried to show that there are other ways,And there are,I always think back to this quote " i like to judge horse flesh by what it has achieved in public and by no other means " great quote that is and so true when it comes to finding good things.You want to try that s/plan when you get 14/1 shots even e/w your bank will go through the roof.

Fulham
When I asked a simple question
Who on here can make a 50 point level stake profit
You replied

Boozer

Why do you stipulate level stakes? There are degrees of confidence, even within VDW's own selections ("outstanding bet", "good thing" etc), and it is rational to reflect these differences in stakes.???

Investor

The most popular selection of the day all those years ago produced 80%+ winners

Fulham
Classified had won a class 290 over today's distance,The only one higher is class 446 over 21.5 fur,O.k the better performances were over this distance,Even so today's race was class 232 Stromness and Milligan were the only ones that could get near this and the distance was wrong for both of them.

Boozer
Please elaborate,I'm not quite sure what you mean.

Boozer,

Maybe that's where I got the idea from.The power of the subconcious mind.Spooky.Sorry Fulham.

Investor

The old sporting chronical I think
Had a (the most popular selection of the day)slot

you know like classified is todays most tipped selection.
they produced an 80% strike rate
Or was it the Sporting Life??
Doesnt matter