Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Fulham - Thank you for giving your sub-group method of evaluating form. It seems very similar to the way VDW evaluated the Roushayd races.

It takes me between 2 and 4 hours to evaluate a race and so any ideas to reduce this time are gratefully received.

Many thanks
All the best
hedgehog

fulham, mtoto, statajack, johnd, lee, determined, arrowson, crock, investor,,you mentioned using sub,groups,..in formness, ,
is this your evaluation process of horse unexposed form which is very hard to define or are your readings of the form book more defined with exposed horses,fulham could you give me any examples of how to equate horses, using unexposed form,..as mentioned by mg kent.. ,in his letter to raceform, was korelo, such a bet, many thanks grundy

john duncan

Grundy

Two examples you might want to consider:

(1) Korelo yesterday. From a VDW perspective, Korelo was seemingly out of form, and not a potential bet. BUT he had run well against a horse which, by the time of yesterday's race, had become favourite for the Champion Hurdle. That, in itself, did not make Korelo a form horse for yesterday's race, still less the most probable winner. However, in my view it offered a tangible reason not to take shortish odds on what I am sure some will have seen as a VDW good thing;

(2) the 3.55 at Newbury on 26/10/02. My old friend Champion Lodge was seemingly the class/form horse, but deeper investigation shows Dumaran to have been a good thing UNDER THE CONDITIONS.

MG, Kent, is an important commentator on matters VDW. The other contributors to the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and its successors much less so.

He's too lazy to work and a bit of a burke,
So he makes fun of a guy who's a "trier,"
But try as he might, the old hypocrite,
He's still just a proven liar.

Fulham,

I had discounted Korelo as unproven over the distance, particularly on his French form, although I did note the RP comment on his Wincanton run

quote:

---

He gave the impression he is going to need a bit further.

---

, and obviously had a chance at the weights. I was expecting more of a run from Colourful Life after his Leopardstown performance.

Tomorrow I see Classified as a bet unless horribly short priced.

A man who sold cold meat and pies,
saw the answers in front of his eyes.
One day on a forum,
he lost his decorum
and said **** Van Der Wheil it's all lies.

Hi all,
Having just read the latest postings on the board mainly concerning form I would just like throw in my feelings.
Form is as VDW said one performance being better than another. No one can dispute that.
The main problem with form is how each individual interpretes it.
It doesn't necessarilly follow that if we asked five members of the group to analyse a certain race they would all come up with the same conclusion.
The fact is that they wouldn't because everybody puts their own interpretation on form.
I backed Korelo yesterday because I was convinced that he was that winner in a race.
I also put this up on another thread before the race as other members can testify.
But reading the postings I was in the minority with this so it all goes back to how I started and how you read form.
I am sure no one deliberately tries to put people off on this site but as we are all individuals it may be that we don't READ WHAT IS THERE or we don't understand what is there.
I am no better than anyone else in fact I am probably worse than most but it does work.
Interpretation of form is a vital part of the method as VDW stressed several times.
Class is nothing without form.
See you soon, Mike.

Quinelle
Tell me more.

Mickeddy
One of VDW's conspicuous assertions is that once we understand the method we will have the same selections as him. In a nutshell, there is no room for individual interpretation.

Admirably creative clutch of poets on hand.

a certain Phys Rev referee
Considers all papers with glee:
"What's new is not true,
And what's true is not new,
Unless it was written by me."
jib, does this ring a bell?

grundy

Johnd,

Sorry I missed your post re Marlborough being out of form. As you say Best Mate ran at least 14lb under his best form, add to this the track would suit M better than him. BM wouldn't have been fully wound up, M headed him between the last two fences and still was beaten. The final, and for me deciding factor was the form book comment 'finished very tired' I think the race at Wetherby bottomed him and he needs a long break.

Fulham,

As you know I am very doubtful about VDW using the C/form method to solve all the examples. A couple of questions. First, when VDW hasn't taken the c/form horse and you think he has used the second or third c/form horse. Do you agree that the other horses were not in form, or to put it another way, would you have made that SAME decision before the race? Also are you happy with this relativity thing, when/how do you decide that a horse may be in form, but it is out classed. Or is just being in form enough, what ever the ability rating as long as it is the highest of the form horses?

JIB,

I am sad to see you have seen fit to have a go at Grundy, I can't understand why you feel the need. Good manners, and a wish to learn shouldn't warrant an attack like that.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Here here.

Gummy,

Step in now and follow through with your warning. We do not need to be wasting time reading this nonsense.

Barney,

Thank you for your response.

Fulham,

Was Dumaran a bet for you ?

Cheers,

Arowson

I can confirm that Mike put up Korelo as a selection, before the off, on another VDW board, but with due respect I did not see him as a VDW bet, only as a potential threat to the favourite. (He had run decently over the trip, and further, in France.) The only reason I backed it was because he was advised as "off" by a very reliable source (David Lyons).


Mtoto

Both your questions are, for me, difficult.

First, I cannot be sure VDW ever went against the class/form horse: the view expressed recently by Bream looks to me increasingly likely. But in those cases where I am in doubt (Move Off/Battlement, for example) both the relevant horses seem to be form horses on my undoubtedly imperfect understanding of the "missing link". Take Copeland in the race won by Spirit Leader last week, for example. I thought he was probably a form horse, and treated him as such, though I wasn't sure. Someone whose opinion I respect subsequently told me that he had treated him as not a form horse, for reasons he explained. I think he was probably right, but personally I can't be SURE what view VDW would have taken, any more than I can in the Move Off/Battlement example. All I am sure of is that, leaving aside the Handicap Hurdle examples and some of the Best Bet/Next Best examples, which I do not yet understand, ALL of VDW's selections - whether c/fs, 2nd c'fs or even lower order still c/fs - were form horses.

As to your second question, the best example VDW gave us is, I think, the 1984 Welsh National, where he explictly names Righthand Man as the class/form horse (page 17 of my edition of "Ultimate Wheil of Fortune"). But he was not what, up to that time, I would have regarded as the highest ability rated in-form horse in the field (which for me was Peaty Sandy). Thus either VDW made a mistake (as with Bonny Gold, for example) or he regarded Peaty Sandy's form as, relatively speaking, so inferior to RHM's as to render him out of form in the context of the race. Obviously I cannot be certain which, but I'm inclined to think that the latter is altogether the more likely, as it is very logical. (In similar vein, I draw your attention to Guest's post on the Artie/Feet So Fast race last Flat season, from which I conclude that he takes a similar view.)


Determined

No, Dumaran wasn't a bet for me, because then I hadn't the insight to be looking for such bets. But Guest referred to it without naming it; Much of a Muchness subsequently highlighted it; and on studying the race myself it is a clear example of a good thing whose form IN THE CONDITIONS was masked by the apparent form.

What those who are inclined to be critical don't understand (because their basic knowledge of VDW is insufficient) is the value of posts by Guest. Yes, he doesn't spell it ALL out - thank God. But for those like Much of a Muchness and myself in the case of the race by Dumaran, Guest's posts provide truly invaluable steps to fuller understanding of VDW's approach.

[This message was edited by Fulham on February 16, 2003 at 07:25 PM.]

Determined(to bore)
I bet you were a prefect at school.

hedgehog,

regarding 'sub-groups'.

If you look at the Fontwell 2.30 tomorrow you will see 3 horses with ability ratings over 100. The other 4 horses have ability ratings below 55. Unless all of the 3 top rated horses obviously have no chance, then the winner should come from these 3, and thorough investigation of the form of the other 4 should not be required

Milligan - off course 289 days, wrong distance (never run over more than 16f).
Stromness - not in form, wrong distance - probably needs further

I believe Classified (top AR, best consistency, dropped in class, distance OK, going OK, top trainer, top jockey, good prize) will win.

All 3 are entered for the Stayers Hurdle on 13th March.

I know determined from old & have the greatest admiration for him he`s kept this thread going almost single-handedly at times, all the very best to you determined you deserve it m8 god bless.