Seanrua
Could I suggest that if you wish to maintain your interest in VDW methodology through the Winter you think again about NH racing. There wouldn't be as many bets as in the summer, but they can be topped up by the few decent aw races. IMO there is little difference in the application of the method in either sphere.
Recently I suggested that you pay heed to the racing and placing of horses, and, as an aid, study the results of the better races from the previous Saturday.
Last Saturday was no different, and 3 of the major races fell to horses with marked VDW traits, namely Quito, Carte Diamond, and Royal Auclair, (Again, I will point out that I make no other claims than they are educational).Hopefully, a close study of how they were raced and placed will bear fruit.
If you have difficulty in seeing the connections, my email address is on my profile, and I would be willing to give further assistance through that.

B.C
Well done with Fashions monty,I was willing him on for you,We definately look at things in the same light.But i feel you are contradicting your theory with regard to the key where you mention higher class races.I can see exactly why you went for this animal but Temperement dear boy.Also there were higher class races on the card and elsewhere.

Yes, johnd, I shall follow your suggestion to look closely at Saturday results, in particular.

Occasionally, I do have a bet over the sticks, so, I may just put up up an odd selection or two;
believe me they will be odd!

Grundy,

I can’t see any evidence of compression in some of the examples you mentioned. In fact 3 of the 4 I looked at today were in the top 3 weights which could tie in with what Seanrua has suggested about OR. The 4th one though, Killeshin, was one of the bottom weights and running from 9lbs out of the handicap ( before his jockeys 3lb claim) and I’m puzzled why VDW didn’t have that as a negative. He must have thought it had quite a bit in hand.

Swish,

I think the staking used in 13 against the bank was different in its aims to that which you stated. At any given time all 6 of the bettors may not be showing a profit. The idea was to keep the stakes low when on a losing run but to accelerate the stakes quickly by reinvesting some of the winnings when an occasional long winning run occurred. He wasn’t suggesting that if black was losing then red would be showing a profit. By playing 6 near enough even money chances at once it increased the chances that one or more of the team would hit a winning run. So one of them may make a good profit while the other 5 would be around break even or showing a slight loss. I seem to remember he called the staking system the Reverse Labouchere because the original Labouchere was designed to increase stakes on a losing run whereas they only increased them on a winning run.

Cheers.

bream, thanks for your reply, are the examples in be a winner connected with the roushayd, example trainer placement...higher ability dropping in class...in connection with above do these horses relate to the method,better offer, decorated hero,dacha,jb letter to raceform 1995,..ectoo, looking at strong magic,was this based on vdws methods..trainer placing??

quote:

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Originally posted by investor:
But i feel you are contradicting your theory with regard to the key where you mention higher class races.

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Hi Investor

Thanks for that. A 6/4 winner - Swish will be impressed!

My theory concerning what Mr. Hall 'found' is that he found the method works best in higher class races. VDW agreed with that too in a later article (not with what the key was, but that the method works best in high class races). Mtoto agrees with that too (i.e. backing higher class races only).

But just because I think that's what Mr. Hall's 'key' was, doesn't mean I will limit myself to those races (until I am sure myself - which I'm not, to be honest). Having said that, I would only apply the AR in a better class race.

You'll play in all races too, won't you?


Hi JIB

Yes, I was wondering what happened to Epi too. He last wrote: “I'm trying to get to Tokyo and then to Vietnam, unfortunately we're having the most enormous typhoon”.

Great smilies btw. Where are you getting them from?

Cheers for now

BlackCat

No Grundy it wasn't based on VDW..I don't think there is such a thing...until after the race is run of course ..then it exists in spades

It was just straight forward commonsense handicapping and eliminition of opposition to me.

I wonder if Stephen King thanks the Janet & John books for his success and constantly refers to them..doubt it.
Not that I'm a Stephen King of horse racing..more like Bert King..but you can see what I mean.

bc -

the typhoon does register cause for concern - but knowing epi's reliability - I wouldn't worry too much just yet

re JIBs "smileys" - just "Right Click" on the Smiley and then Click on "Properties" at the bottom of the panel that then appears ! - that leads you to the "URL"

eg

http://www.click-smilies.de/sammlung0304/wuerg/vomit-smiley-026.gif

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Off topic ( not VDW)

Yes, I was wondering about Epi. I hope he's OK; I thought maybe the big underpants contest sent him overboard.

Dunno how he's travelling, but those waters between Vietnam and Thailand are dodgy, to say the least ( Can't see why Tokyo was on the route).

Why dodgy? Because of the pirates (no kidding).
There are so many little islands that it's hard to know whose waters you're in, and, anyway, there doesn't seem to be any law.

Ah well, perhaps he just likes Japan - despite the expense.

On the class issue, my view is that Listed and up best suits my way of using some basic VDW ideas.

Interestingly, though, I gather someone has shown that Win Prize Money, as a positive factor, works best in G class!!!

Why can't things ever be straightforward?

Hi Seanrua

'G' races: I have heard something like that before. Seems to be that some horses are dropped big time to get a win. (Perhaps to pay for their winter haY?)

Hi TC
Thanks for that. How’s about this one:


I am going to start a thread on the Systems testing thread. Some of my selections that I’ve put up here do come from a system devised using some (not all) elements of VDW, with other 'rules' added in. But I feel that to post them here may only be confusing, as I do not use “all” the method. ‘Key Races’ for example!!!

Ectoo,

You find VDW of no use or interest. Perhaps now would be a good time to explain where you found your ideas for winning at racing. Did you not have to read up on the subject, or where you born with all the answers? Are all your ideas your own thinking, none based of other peoples ideas? Did you not have to go back and check these people did know what they were talking about? Did you just except it as gospel, if you did check I suppose you didn't think the best way of doing this was to go back over a few old races.

When you back a horse is there no thought into class and form? Do you not have some way of judging a horses ability? Do you just ignore the fact that a large % of races are won by horses that are consistent, and/or in the first part of most betting forecasts? Before you say I'm not telling you my secrets. I would point out I have explained most of mine, in a way that anyone with a little interest could solve.

You keep on about putting horse up before a race, why? There can only be two reasons for doing this. Yours, to show the world how clever you are, or are not. Mine to give an example that can be used in the future. I'm not sure how many I have put up, but I do know they ALL have the same profile. Like it or not the same profile that can be traced back to the Erin!

When I suggested you may be an interesting person (as a doubter) in have on a forum I was badly mistaken. I thought you may be able to put up a few logical reasons for you doubt. If you do have any they are very well hidden, based on your posts on here. I have asked JIB so I will ask you where do the methods fail? What is wrong with looking for consistent horse with the ability and form to win the chosen race? What is wrong with looking for an improving horse being dropped in class? What is wrong with compiling a list of potential classy horses to follow? If you wish to duck behind the excuse racing has changed, a couple of examples of how it has changed that can't be adapted for the methods would be nice.

I wait your answers with bated breath, but I don't really expect any to come. It boils down to you having a quick look a few years ago, and for what ever reason saying this doesn't/won't work. So in short your only answer is it doesn't work because you say so, and am I going to take a lot of notice of that?

Hope the luck holds

Cheers Pkboy stop me losing some of the housekeeping

Hi Swish were have you been ??

BC, TC,

I rather like this one:

Or

What is wrong with looking for consistent horse with the ability and form to win the chosen race?

Because that is what every betting shop punter does and why they do not represent value.

There has never been one person EVER show a profit over a long period of time on boards or to the Handicap Book..or short period for that matter using simplistic VDW methods.

Now that's not my fault but it's why I can't be having the after race shite that might waste a lot of newbies time in future.

All I've seen you do Mtoto is post after the race digs about mysterious VDW indicators that would have given the winner..it's tiresome and to me aftertiming is the MARK of the loser.

I'm sure you aren't a loser but whilst you keep aftertiming I would have to conclude you can't analyse a race beforehand.

As far as luck's concerned I've been posting for about 3.5 years now and whilst not the greatest picker of winners I have held my own and given more insight than you or any other VDW has to any newbie reading.

I'm a bit sick of people that want to only self promote themselves without any before the race proof that they have a clue about waht they are talking about. You have a superiority complex build on quicksand Mtoto..I have seen so many like you on MB's..a lot of arrogance but little actual use to anyone bar your own ego.

Thats how you come across to me..sorry I know you won't like it.

Ectoo,

Near enough what I excepted from someone who doesn't even bother to read and think about folks postings. I can't use the search of this forum, but if you can be bothered there are at least 6/7 pre race postings on this board from me. The latest being Green Diamond (loser) and Azamour ( W 8/1). These are backed up with Hugs Dancer for the Chester Cup May 83, and two winners at Cheltenham on the same day in December 82. Eternal Spring (W7/2) and Kadarann (W 6/1) + Fadalko LOST Not many fair enough but the fact is they ALL have the same profile. If you or anyone else could be bothered to look at them you would be able to see this.

As for not helping any newbies, I wouldn't expect a newbie to VDW to pick it up just like that. This simplistic method has far more to it than you could even imagine. I would help any of them if they asked. I think many don't ask because they are being put away by folks with your attitude. I have read some of your posts on other forums, and yes you put up selections, and come across as someone who knows a good bit. They see EC saying it doesn't work and they believe it.

You keep on about this after timing, even as far as accusing me of it. Even now if you can be bothered (I'm sure you won't) go back and look at the 6 horses mentioned above and look at the horse you say I after timed Carte Diamond. Can you see the pattern?

I'm equally sick of folk the come on here spouting complete rubbish about something they don't understand. The only reason they don't understand it is they just can't be bothered to try. This quicksand I'm on isn't very quick, pre race postings on THIS board going back to 02. On other boards going back to 00, If I was trying to promote me I would be giving far more selections I'm not. I'm just encouraging people to have a look for themselves and not believe the doubters, especially the ones that have never tried to make it work.

Think you may have rushed on to War And Peace before you finished, and understood the John books. The good thing is it's not too late, and it helps to have the basics in place.

Be Lucky

Hamza

Mtoto,

The whole VDW business has a definite 'stay at home' punter feel about it. It tries to reduce horseracing to a paper exercise, a little like the way some people buy, then study, railway timetables to plan imaginary journeys to exotic locations.

Aftertiming, the horseracing equivalent of imagining yourself hurrying along the platform with your baggage, is only harmless if it is seen as such. But when used as a tool to persuade newcomers of VDWologys powers it is a noxious practice whose damage cannot be assessed by its practitioners.

Do you really think that putting up half a dozen horses in 30 months is sufficient credential for tiring us with monotonous mantras concerning the excellence of your methods and our idiotic disinterest in them?

You have set yourself in your ways and rail against people like myself that cannot reconcile the omnipotence vdw places on form, consistency etc when a cursory look at trainers individuality amply demonstrates that other hugely powerful influences are at work and that they humble your methods on a constant daily basis.

Instead of behaving like some mullah at Finsbury Park Mosque and complaining about the contributions of ectoo and myself you would do far more for your cause by trying to demonstrate how it works instead of just telling us it does.