Nah


He then came to the Old Newton Cup but without, in my view, the credentials required and was to my mind a short priced false favourite who did not possess the class to beat Roushayd. The only other horse in the race worthy of consideration was the second favourite Vouchsafe, who started the season in the same race as Roushayd beating him a short head but this was not a good performance as he clocked a speed figure of only 15. His next race was again over 1| miles but in much lower class. Although he finished only 5th, it was a much better performance with a speed figure of 42. Then he was once more running against Roushayd in the Northern Dancer Handicap over 1£ miles, but this time finishing behind the latter but once again we have the classic example of a horse pushed up in class and improving. So Vouchsafe marked his card for you. Next time out in much lower class Vouchsafe scored at 12/1. - "

Enough you are right (I think)

he marked his card in the northern Dancer
I could have sworn he didnt win till the next season
But I am wrong

thats where your going wrong you see SF!!!

Whats

SF!!!

Vouchsafe, who was behind roushayd in the northern dancer, where he showed improvement, and was dropped in class LAST time to collect. He is now going up in class again and does not ahve the measure of Roushayd.

.

I may have got the wrong Hoss
Still dont know what SF is
Thought you said they were rubbish anyway

Does Voucher book ring a bell
Or Am I completly off track

So 'SF' means 'six furlongs', okay, everything falls into place.
Sorry Barney, dont get upset.

SF's
Spliffs

Still think you are wrong
If I remember the form book
Vouchsafe didnt win at 12/1 till Fto the following season

Fitting that you should bring Arkle into the discussion, as he is the only reason I can think of where weight made a difference.
I remember well the headline in the Daily Mirror racing section, that said " Good night Arkle, says Bob Turnell" Where the trainer said that no horse in the world could give 32lb to his horse, Buonna Notte. He was proved right, but only just,as B.N, finished 2nd in a close finish, with Arkle 3rd, ( From memory the winner was Stalbridge Colonist, but I may be wrong).
The trainer, T Dreaper, also had another lion in his stable at that time, Flyingbolt, and,if memory serves, they had to alter the handicapping method at that time to accomodate the 2 horses, and they were often alloted 13st 7lbs in handicaps.
This is probably when I formed my belief, that weight does make a difference, but only in extremes.

Nothing has changed regarding my previously stated opinions,you're right,a 40% strike rate isn't good enough, but that is my fault rather than VDW's.
One thing can agree on, too much lager makes you garrulous.

Chris

In my opinion, the runs of 1985 KGVI horses against Forgive 'N Forget played no role in the thinking by which VDW arrived at Wayward Lad as his bet.

As regards Smart Tar in the race won by Pegwell Bay, his ability rating was 55, the second highest in the race (behind Townley Stone's) and thus above PB's and Jim Thorpe's. However, like Townley Stone, in my view Smart Tar was not a form horse in the race and therefore not considered a potential winner.


Boozer

I think VDW clearly shows that he used two principal means of assessing a horse's performance, both of which were illustrated in his first ever example. On the one hand, the class of the race run in - as with Drumgora's run on 27/12/77. On the other, the class of the horses in the race - as with Prominent King's run on 14/1/78. As has often been pointed out, the two are not always the same, and both were of interest to VDW.

If you wish to explore this further, Guest provided an excellent example for us to consider during the last Flat season when commenting on the race won by Feet So Fast, in which Artie also ran.

many thanks for your previous advice i do appreciate your help,could you further elobarate on the above example, you mentioned the class of race and the class of opposition at present i do not have this information many thanks

barney thanks for the reply regarding vouchsafe, was this roushayds first drop in class, van der wheil mentioned that shimshek, ala hounak did not have a lot in the way of class, as horses any advice, thanks

john duncan

Grundy

I'm sorry but I'm not prepared to be more explicit than in my previous post, but with that and various ones of Guest's you've got more than a head's start on simply reading the VDW letters and articles.

JohnD - As I have indicated, the important points were subtly pointed out by VDW in his summary of each horse in the 88 Mackeson. In this example he obviously thought it prudent to only list some of the ability ratings for the field. Could it be that he didn't want to "tell everyone" by having Smart Tars ability rating there like a shining beacon?

You are slightly missing the point regards PB and STs meeting. Nobody said PB was now a better class animal, but PB had beaten a better class animal under certain race conditions. Foyle Fisherman was no mug either. On top of all this previous class/form is paramount in the evaluation process.

I still think a lot of your approach is too conventional. VDW was different to anything else on the shelf. The reason is remains largely disclosed to the public is because it was so different.

James Willoughby is paraded as a racing expert and writes plenty about his theories concerning why horses win or lose races. However, whenever I see him on the TV, he expounds reasons why so and so will not win or why so and so will win, but they rarely do as he expected. He often has a new reason why though after the event. I have heard so called experts time and time again slag a favourite off only for it to win when the form book also said it was likely to. The same experts then go and tip a duff fav when the form book read VDWs way (even half right) says it will probably lose.

Why was Kadoun so fancied yesterday, why was L'Epicurien and Foxchapel King thought capable of defying their handicap?

Is there enough there to whet your appetite?

Then you should get the form books and try to work it out for yourself.

It is possible to explain very easily why such and such is out of form but VERY UNLIKELY.

Please state your enquiry in specific terms, I will do whatever I can to try to help, if I am unable to I sincerely hope that there is someone else on this thread who will.

You said

One thing can agree on, too much lager makes you garrulous.

Cant argue with that

Barney

Re Vouchsafe You were right I was wrong
Final
No more Erm Babbling about that

Fulham

Class of horse was what I really meant
Do you see out of form as
The horse in question hasn’t run well in a recent race/races the value of which is well below his ability rating
And is this how you see BL out of form

I can of course see other variations of this theme that can mean the same