Guest,

Thanks for you kind offer. I would be grateful if you could pass comment on my reasoning.

I initially discounted Vrin on Saturday because the speed figures for his win were low in comparison to the rest of the field – his best figures were recorded when he was 15.5l 6/14 at Sandown, towed along by better horses I thought perhaps.

However, taking speed figures out of the equation and studying the race once more I still can’t see why you thought he was a good thing.

On highest value races won, according to my figures the order was:
The Pickled Duke (TPD) C70; Prokofiev (P) B60, Memsahib Ofesteem (MO) C50, Mane Frame (MF) D40, Vrin (V) D40 and Knighted (K) F40. Discarding TPD with no recent form and K whose win came in class F, I looked at the remainder for the best of their last 3 races.
P D50 4.75l 4/14 Kemp down 14lbs
MO C130 7l 5/12 Kemp down 6lbs
MF D40 0.5l 1/14 Newb down 6lbs
V B130 6.5l 3/10 Donc up 2lbs

MF definitely goes out at this stage and I suppose P, buit MO and V are still live contenders. Even allowing for 7lb difference between class B and C (though both races of the same value), I still make MO 1lb better off at the weights. Surely then MO must have been at least a threat, or was she discarded as she wasn’t in the first 6 of the betting forecast?

Oldtimer

Guest,
Got your address and have sent message.
Regards,

BARNEY
Please don't apologise for causing confusion, you make so many positive contributions and Mistletoe is one of them. It has allowed the more experienced contributers to make points for and against. I for one have found this extremely usefull, though I still can't spot the positive point that you believe Fulham missed, which means back to the grindstone for me.
3.40 Hereford
as I read it. N.C & G.R are the class/form horses. F.P has the class LTO. & improved on speed, but it's a low value race & the relative ability is "like a blanket". Any constructive comments would be welcome.
regards to all.

If I'm employing the correct procedure the 3 most consistent from the first 6 in the forcast would be,

Ifni Du Luc 4
Mistletoe 6
Mables Memory 5

Decent enough consistency figures, using VDW's percentages there would be a 90% chance that the winner would come from one of these three.

Looking at the form, Ifni Du Luc lto wins a 10K B nov ch at 3/1.The 4/6f (Direct Access) in this race didn't perform with any credit at all, being that it was a four runner slow run affair did the result/opposition really add up to much.
In contrast Mistletoe 2/1jf lto, wins pretty much as she likes against others that could be viewed as fancied in the market.
Although Mistletoe's race was also a slow race and worth a lot less prizemoney, who came up against the better opposition lto.

In Saturdays race Mistletoe had 5LB more weight to carry Ifni had 12LB more, would it be reasonable to assume that Mistletoe could be expected to shoulder the extra weight more so than the massive 12LB Ifni had to endure given the heavy going.

Of the others involved 3 were comfortably held by Ifni on previous races, Rainbow Time would almost certainly be held by Mistletoe even with the 14LB better terms, if you took the view that Mistletoe's jockey could have virtually chose the margin by which he won lto.

Mtoto

I know the above wouldn't answer the doubt about Mistletoe acting on the going, it may well be that the above reasoning may have gave confidence as to who out of the three probables would handle the conditions best.

All the best
Chris

3.40-well the result was a bit of a surprise allthough my top 5 rated did fill the first 5 places,unfortunetly they did not read the script and were muggled up somewhat but on the whole most satisfying.
max.

Chris B - Good to see someone thinking it through and posting their findings and you are certainly on the right tracks. It wasn't so much the extra weight carried for Ifni (though this is undesirable), but the fact that she had topweight raised in race class having recieved weight last time. She hadn't won such a race with such a weight before and her form wasn't as impressive as many thought. Mistletoe had looked a shade disappointing previously, though consistent before a little break then showing good form albeit in lowish race class when joint favourite. The probability looked good for the consistent horses and with little else in the race to comment on she looked well overpriced compared to her real chance. The ground was negated by the lack of real opposition and the positives far outweighed the negatives. It would have been different if she had failed on heavy ground previously in a race that should have been no problem.

Oldtimer - Vrin looked by far the most likely winner and pretty much a good thing, but I didn't get involved. The class/form horse was Mane Frame with Vrin 2nd on c/f, but there were big doubts about Mane Frames last run when all out to win. Vrin had been running in much better races and notice the markets in those races. The Newbury win doesn't look too shabby does it?

Using the highest race value win doesn't really tell us much. Remember no one factor dominates the methods processes and conclusions.

To Guest

I`m nothing if not honest. I did post on this thread I would "clear off" if you posted a couple of pre-race selections.

I understand that is exactly what you did, albeit they were fairly short priced favourites that the world and his dog were on. Never the less they won and so I kept my side of the bargain.

I did note however, that during your gloating of these short priced winning favourites you made reference to my lack of good grace in not acknowledging your winner finding prowess.

To that I say, we had a deal, and I was sticking to it. But it surprises me not, to learn that your interpretation typically was confused. Your stock-in-trade after all is confuse and rule. If I remember correctly our first occasion to cross swords was because you hopelessly confused/misquoted Swish with regard to "ego" and "racing certs". Since then I`ve read your posts and concluded that you and straight talking are indeed strangers.

You continue to peddle smoke and mirrors, cloak and dagger, read between the lines stuff and, I have something I will feed the willing with piecemeal so long as they will engage me in my indulgence. I wonder if, in real life you can actually stand on your hind legs, look another man in the eye and speak without a twisted tongue.

I use these word advisedly, since your parochial postings on this board have yet to find there way to any other thread or to even extend the common courtesy of making welcome new members to the forum.

As you I`m interested in this business of finding a horse that can get it`s nose over the line before all others and just as there`s different ways of skinning a rabbit there are many ways of predicting which horse will come first.

No doubt VDW had a few good idea`s of his own but I also doubt that he was so slavishly parochial as yourself. I suppose if I`m truthful my dislike of your persona is that you come across as a spotty faced geek, totally devoid of personality or wit (which is the life blood of message boards). Just as if the world was left to those that bat for the other team extinction is the only outcome.

What I find unfortunate is finding a web site that both entertains and provokes a realistic exchange among men, only to find, well, perhaps you get my drift, what I`m thinking wouldn`t be PC, or how I would describe it be in keeping with Gummy`s codes of practice.

You may be wondering why I`ve revisited, that`s a fair question, the answer is simple, in a round about way I was invited to, one of your backside kissing apostles ventured over to a thread I was posting on earlier today and made comment on one of my posts. I welcome that, but at the time was to busy to answer. Since he, as the majority of you confine yourselves to this single thread, he will be able to read my answer here.

Understandably you might reasonably be thinking, what the hell is this to do with me.

Answer........I`d prefer to speak to the engineer rather than the oil rag.


Finally, it is not to my intention to revisit, unless (in a round about way I`m invited). However you may be sure I will execise the right of reply to YOU on this thread as and when


Lee

You may not be used to straight talk on this thread

Your`e the oil rag

But I welcome future exchanges.

111
.

Excuse me while I scrape off my boot something peculiarly nasty I have happened on.

The deeper you get into this subject the more you realise the extraordinary genius of its originator not only to devise it but to be able to write about it on several levels that can be interpreted according to your level of intellect.
Most of us were not up to the task but a few were
for which we should be grateful.

Three Legs - Had you come back with your reply earlier informing us of your acceptance of the result of your challenge, I would not have had to remind you via some of your pals. And let's be straight about this, yourself, Jimmy and Quinelle can be found on other threads tittering behind the bikesheds at the hilarious fun you have provoking those interested in VDW methods on this thread. I was in no way gloating over the 2 out 3 named, but when others were denying their exsistence just because they were not 10/1 or something, I felt it necessary to ask them why they didn't count?

You seem concerned that I am endangering the message board in some way. I would say, judging by just one email I recieved, it is you and your totally hostile way of posting that will encourage others to find something better to do with their time. I'm sure it hasn't failed to take your notice that the VDW thread is by far the most popular subject within Gummys forum. I would say that implies the posters and viewers within are more than happy to engage. This being the case surely you should be policing the other less popular threads via your own stimulating style of posting. When you find a thread worthy of the attention, let us all know and we'll come and visit. Until then I am personally happy to continue within this one.

Your character asessment of me is well wide of the mark really. You have never met me or know my background, yet you seem convinced you have me down to a tee. I hope you don't make such sweeping assumptions about the horses you back. Judging by your pseudonymn perhaps you don't, I neither know nor care.

Finally, I have always maintained that there are many ways to beat the book and VDWs way is not the only way. However this thread is about VDW and his methods. If I or others was interested in other ways then we would have looked elsewhere. One thing I am sure of is that VDW (whoever he was) knew more about finding winners in his little finger than you will in a lifetime of betting.

Romans240000000,
You are bang out of order and you know it. You would never dare to speak to anyone like that in real life.

Guest,
As usual you can't answer anyone about anything at any time.
You are like that Pazuzu bloke, just getting a kick from us who are daft enough to feed your thrill.

Here is a question nothing to do with racing.
Do you like FRED DIBNAH'S BUILDING OF BRITAIN?
I love it. A pure down to earth man who has done well and talks straight, no messing.

Oh by the way I have now had 17 winners to 7 losers on my "certs" all picked via VDW not bad eh?

You can't ignore me because you need the "kick",
Yours
Swish

Swish - Now you know why I associated you with the Three Stooges previously. You are totally blind to their postings, yet tell others they are out of order for their own posts.

I have taken a look at your certs. Well done for keeping in the black, but hardly any were found via VDW methods.

Guest,
You and I must meet up, get stoned out of our heads and go for a weekend down Soho or Amsterdam and let's really have a good time.
In the meantime, if I did not pick them via VDW how did I pick them then?
Yours
Swish
p.s. Do you like Fred Dibnah?

Guest.

I am sorry that it may look as if I am having a go at you, I'm not. You said there was no factual evidence Mistletoe couldn't act on the ground. She ran on the heavy twice and failed both times, once as an odds on favourite. I missed this because after the comments from the trainer, the incessant rain, and the amount of horses being pulled out I decided to give the meeting a miss.

Three legs.

Before I worried about other peoples persona, I would think about yours. You come across as having the wit, charm, and mentality of a slug.

Swish, after 30 years on the building I would say it to his face and a few other things. Some of the people have worked long and hard to get some decent dialogue going on this thread. We don't need a moron like this interrupting. There are more than enough threads for him to sound of on, without ruining this one.

Regards

It doesnt really matter too much whether someone is a vdw fan or not, this thread is getting spoiled by what appears to me to be a complete load of bollocks.
Whether certain people think vdw is crap or not, there are plenty of people who believe it has improved their betting techniques. It has definitely cut out a lot of my losing bets to the extent that if I miss a winner by being too cautious I'm not bothered. When I first began to really look at vdw in depth a couple of years ago I found my profits went down slightly. What i also found though was that my strike rate increased substantially and from a well being point of view I find that preferable. As in most things, confidence is all.
The people who follow this thread do so because they think they can gain something from it that will improve their betting. They dont have to be full-on disciples and I havent seen anyone demand them to be. Does Guest ask for anything? All he does is respond to questions. If there is something they dont understand they can ask and people will endeavour to help them out without stating the obvious, funnily enough people feel better when they can suss things out for themselves without having everything spelt out.
Any contribution from swish or max is useful to all of this, you dont have to be a vdw fan to offer something constructive and as i posted earlier, max's filters can be usefully applied to just about any method one could care to think of. However, there are posts on here that have absolutly nothing to offer. All they do is coat people off without offering any alternative viewpoint or indeed any ideas from themselves whatsoever. Max has been good enough to spell some things out to them about his ways but I doubt they have the discipline or patience to follow them properly despite things being spoon fed. They despise anyone who has made an effort but they wonder why they still haven't yet made the easy money that they think they deserve. Ultimately they are the proverbial "mugs". It would take a brave man to wager on how long it will take them to wise up.

There you go again, bringing me into this. So, you received an email did you, I hope it was not from investor again, after begging for an answer to his last one he will be destroyed if you don’t throw him a bone. Or maybe it was from two degrees bensam, or romans, a pair of wasters who would not be missed. No matter, if anyone is endangering this board it is the likes of you, who cannot get their waffle printed in the RFU anymore so you turn to message boards which do not have editors who recognize bullshit when they see it. You are right when you say that this thread is about VDW and his methods, that was the original idea when it was started by Swish. But it is not A GUESTS INTERPRETATION OF VDW. Much to your disappointment I suppose. So, when a very respected and long standing member of this board posts an enquiry about a horse you supposedly backed at 10/1 (again no mention of it until after the event, but we believe you,) and is answered with,” Perhaps it would be better all round if those who say they can't see these factors actually posted what they do see, rather than just demanding things on a plate from me.” It lets the rest of us, who are not blinded by your bullshit, see just what a bigheaded son of a bitch you are. As you rightly say VDW did not spell it out, and if Swish interprets it in his way and gets far more winners than you maybe you should be asking Swish how he does it, he is doing it a damn sight better than you.

neigh..... lad

i'm starting to think like a horse!

Good Morning Gentlemen

Firstly I`d like to thank all those kind people who actually took the time, trouble and effort to reply to my recent post. Yes, even MOTTO albeit his was only a miserable two lines. I really am quite flattered.

I made my post, then turned in for the evening. You can`t imagine my delight when I read your replies this morning. I had a vision of you all busying yourselves away last night on my behalf, oh the irony of it.

My only disappointment came from the post of one of your more "literary challenged" members but no doubt with a little more practise his performance will improve.

Lee`s post to me yesterday was indeed fortuitous as Mrs 111 was away tending to business, the TV was awfull and I was..........well, available for a chat as it were.

Nice talking to you all, we must meet again soon.

Toodle Pip

111
.

Three Legs,

I actually gave your previous post the response that I felt it deserved.

You perhaps ought to spend today using the time that it took to draft that drivel in a more constructive way, you may find it more satisfying.

Sorry the response is only short, but to be perfectly honest, you're boring me.

Lee - I echo your sentiments.

Three Legs,Jimmy,Quinelle - As far as I'm concerned you no longer exist. It only takes a short scroll to bypass your loser driven drivel.

following on from yesterday i would be interested to see what anyone comes up with regarding the 3.45 this is how they came out for me-

1 andys lad
2 storm tiger
3 granby bell
4 mount prague
5 island mist
6 native speaker
7 shepherds rest
8 dealers choice
9 keano
10 baby john

however serious doubts surround the top 3 and my revised list is as follows-

1 mount prague
2 island mist
3 native speaker

i realize that this complete evaluation of field is not in line with vdw way of thinking but what the heck i like putting my head on the block.

max.