Someone else pointed this out somewhere else on here and I apoligise for not remembering who. This is where OR can be very useful. In any race like this you should always be asking yourself,"If this was a handicap, how much weight would they be carrying, and why?". This often pinpoints a horse that is virtually gauranteed to run it to, at least, a place at very good odds. Not VDW I admit but useful all the same.

Good Skill
Jimmy

i think i need some temperament tablets

I agree with Jimmy’s comments regarding OR’s. They do lend themselves as another rating that can be used a guide to measure a horses ability in non-handicap affairs. Tread carefully with them though; I’m sure the Donny Mile will be proof of this later on.

Guest

Mistletoe. I am going to end this discussion by asking you, if you had read the article by the trainer. Read the form comments on her other runs on heavy, beaten by a distance in one, and drifted badly in the betting. With this information before the race would you still have backed her on Saturday? If you would fair play, but I can't see how you had the odds in your favour as recommended by VDW. I have stated in a previous post, if a horse is in form, I will give it a chance if it is being raised in class, distance etc. Not when it has failed twice out of three attempts, and that is giving it the benefit of the doubt about the class and form of the first race. If that first race was good and confirmed she could act on the heavy, what happened in the next two races on heavy?

Regards

Mtoto - The only comments I read about Mistletoe on Saturday before the race were those made by her trainer Kim Bailey (who had succeeded in placing her to win her first race first time out from his yard) in the Racing Post and I quote "She has had a hike in the weights, but the soft will suit her and she is in good form. She has a bloody good chance." Contrast them with Nicky Hendersons comments about his horse before the race plus the fact he knew what he was taking on in his ex stable inmate and the picture from the trainers point of view looks pretty clear cut. However, as i have always said, we have to be very careful taking too much heed of what trainers say about their charges. Final analysis has to be based on what horses do on the track in the afternoon under race conditions. Yes Mistletoe had failed on heavy over hurdles, but she also failed on other types of ground too. Does that mean she can't handle those conditions as well? Her first 2 racecourse appearances when much younger and inexperienced were good runs in context from a form and class point of view, both on testing ground at a very testing track. This points were all noted before the race to confirm what the balance of class and form for Saturday was telling me. This all takes time to perform because everything needs double checking.

I'm sure you already are aware of the work involved, but some others seem to think it's just a case of opening up the paper for half an hour in the morning and finding a good thing.

Barney,
A 0-60 classified stakes is not a race tailor made for vdw analysis and I would further urge caution by pointing out that the weight Nassau Night receives is down to the weight for age scale because it is a 3 year old competing against older horses for the first time today. As it was foaled on 14th april 1999 it is not really even a 3 year old yet.
Maybe it is a very sharp move by the trainer so it will be interesting to see what happens.
Regards,

Hello All,

Investor/Statajack - can I ask a question? I've looked at C and GDM and also the races for Step on Eyre, Intersky Falcon, Java Sea, Flying Instructor and Golden Goal and can rationalise that there is no winner in a race in them. However I have a problem with GMB's race. Was there a winner in a race in this that failed or am I taking things at face value?

As ever, you can ignore this question if you wish.

All the best
hedgehog

hi there..if you examine the race that choisty ran in closely,and compare it with the other probables,who had major factors against,the only outcome was the eventual one.GDM was easier to evaluate, it,s all down to how you interpet form cheers investor

Hope you used your common sense and backed Nassau Night. Or, as now your joining the ranks of the blinkered elite, are you not allowed to back decent winners?

Good Skill
Jimmy

thamnks jimmy

the tablet didnt work fortunately

ive been picking what i consider to be the form / class horse for about a month now(only when against not much oposition) so i new it would win as i had a loser yesterday and the LLR is one so far, only had 100 on though mores the pity, should have gone for yesterdays loss as well more fool me

The important thing to remember is that life is too short so enjoy yourself. So who cares if the experts think your wrong and you need the tablets, as long as it is fun.

Good skill
Jimmy

Barney,

The important thing to remember is that life is long enough for gambling to become addictive and you won't have much fun if that happens. Temperament is ALL important in successful betting in the long run, whether it be on a vdw basis or other means. Congratulations on your winner though.

thanks bensam for pointing that out

i know only too well of the problems of gambling a close member of my family has a problem with every race but gradually i am weening him off the habit, he is a trebles and yankee boy,as i have been, then i learned to dutch and then i came across vdw now i only manage to find 2 or three a week that i consider worthy,like i said i'm only a beginner and in time with experience i will realise that these are foolish bets, but i seem to find the easy ones as well, when i placed the bet i was fully prepared to accept the price of the lesson.

it was my only bet of the day and only the third this week,thats after checking most races and ignoring lots i thought might win as not clearcut enough(for me).

Barney,

I can see you have the intellegence to cultivate the correct temperament for betting and all it is essentially, is waiting for the right moment when the odds are well and truly stacked in your favour.

Who says you can't have fun if you're addicted. Bill Gates and Richard Branson are addicted to work but they are held up as shining examples because they are successful. I've known number of people who were addicted to gambling, if you take the meaning of addiction as they get withdrawal symptoms if they can not get a bet. The point is though they won, and had a great time doing it. If you are addicted and losing that is a different story, but if instead of trying to wean these people of gambling why not put them in touch of Max's thread and teach them to win, then they can be addicted and enjoy themselves.

I suppose that is one of the reasons I can't be bothered with VDW and so called VDW experts. All this crap about waiting until the odds are stacked in your favour, temperament and all the rest. They take the all fun out of it.

Barney - The important thing is you made it your only bet and you made a profit. I only said it was a race not really suitable for application of the VDW method. If we were able to just back winners and leave the losers it would be indeed a wonderful world. Unfortunately, in order to get a high strike rate, we have to leave lots of winners alone also. This is something that seems to confound people for some reason. In order to get a high strike rate we have to sit and watch some horses win, sometimes at good odds. This is unavoidable. Bear in mind that VDW said he backed less than 20% of those he thought should win and that there was a very good reason for this. Nothing has changed on that front.

I did consider Kadarann a good thing today though at Wincanton. The class/form horse with the right credentials. Not 11/2 I know, but there were no question marks. Well done on your success though, Barney.

hi guest

i also had kadaran as one that would win
but the going did it for me, is it going to rain and get worse and that was a risk,on the form i had time to study.like you say its an hour or so when you find even a candidate. maybe i was lucky, but it had an awful lot of pluses.

Hello All

Investor - Thanks. I hadn't twigged though I think I may have now but I'm a bit more cautious. I'll double check the named races to confirm the negative.

Jimmy - Have you heard of Howard Sartin? He's an American behaviourist who "cured" a number of gambling addicts by getting them to win! It seems that gambling addicts tend to give up gambling when they start winning because the payoff for them is talking about the ones they missed. Just like the payoff for alcoholics is talking about their hangovers.
In fact the Sartin methodology is still available in American and it comes with a mixture of handicapping and therapy.

All the best
hedgehog

jimmy

i have give him horses and bets that i knew were winners and said buy a pc get on the net and wise up, no sonner have i turned my back hes betting in maiden novice handicap chases because stormin is on it.i try to drag him out the shop when weve won but hes a big boy and i cant watch him all the time, he's determined to lose his wages every week he can have a fifty quid double up then next day he's broke, you can't tell him nothing he knows it all!!!