I think we all know someone who blows his wages for a quick fix and maybe they do get some fun out of it but like drink or drug addiction, it can never last and then the downside kicks in. It sounds like Howard Sartin teaches gambling addicts temperament if he can get them to win, because there is no way you can win in the long term with a gambling addiction.

after all this,

the reason i mentioned it in the first place was not to give a winner but to try to show that a low speed figure,14 in last and 24 before that have no relation to the real speed of the horse, and that OR cant be taken at face value.

i hope in some way that someone has seen, what i consder, form, and a touch of class in that it went faster with 8-4 than it did with 7-7.

Barney,

When I read your post this morning I had a look at Nassua Night. I wouldn't ever have looked at a race this low in class. I thought Barney is coming to his senses and taking speed into consideration. I have just read your last post and realise you hadn't. If you read one of my earlier posts I said Top Speed had a flaw in his ratings, how he gave NN figures that low I don't know. I didn't have him top rated but I did have him the class/form horse in the race, if the word class can be used in such a low grade race. I now understand why you say speed is not important. Speed is important, but the quality of the speed figures is just as important.

Any way well done.

You think not bensam? Let me quote from an interview of a very successful gambler. ”What’s the criteria for being an addict? Is it doing something you love most of the time? Is it being wholly concentrated on your favourite subject?…I do that. I think about gambling most all the time. If I don’t have any action for a while, I get the heebie-jeebies, I love to gamble. It’s the most fun thing I can think of. But I don’t feel sick. In fact I feel fortunate. I get to make a living doing something I love to do. Isn’t that’s what it’s all about?”
This from someone who has a sprawling luxuriously appointed home, a beautiful wife, children, three luxury cars, and all the ‘ordinary’ trappings of wealth. A self confessed gambling addict.

I wouldn't consider myself an alcoholic because I don't complain about hangovers, maybe this is because I found the cure for hangovers about thirty years ago and have never had one since. For anyone who is interested it's really quite simple. Don't sober up.

Jimmy

With you there Jimmy!
Swish

mtoto

i dont normally but i always have a quick look in case there is anything daft.he was the same as dick the taxi.

jimmy,

how long did it take you?i live on a run down estate,with two screaming kids who are pulling the wall paper off,with three clapped out cars that i cant even be bothered to polish.lol.dont worry about the liver you can just buy another one.

[This message was edited by Barney on March 22, 2002 at 05:56 AM.]

has anyone any thoughts on the 225k?

Well Jimmy, I'll have to take your word for that. Personally, if this person you tell us of has all the trappings of wealth, then I would say he is taking the p*ss out of the ordinary punter when he calls himself a gambling addict, afterall that's where his wealth would have come from. It is the term addict that is causing the confusion here. I would describe it as someone who has got no self control over what they are doing. What you seem to be describing is passion, which is an entirely different thing altogether. It is simply not possible to make money over the long term at gambling without temperament or self control.

try telling that to dave nevisan

Max,

When I next see him at a race course I will.

Barney - The 2.25 at Kelso shows the 3 most consistent as Through The Rye (6),Moonshine Bay(5) and Mytimie/Maceo(7). The class/form horse is Through The Rye which might surprise. Those with higher ability ratings have serious doubts about their form. A study of the form and ratings shows TTR out of it's depth last time though not disgraced, but progressive prior to that. Mytimie has had a less busy time recently and the form of his last run over further compares favourably with TTR. Maceo won a decent prize in a novices event last time at Newbury, but the form is below par in comparison.

after looking at this race i have to agree with guest.my top 3 were magic combination/through the rye/mytime.with serious doubts as to the effectiveness of magic combination lumping top weight on ground that will not suit and through the rye competing in my opinion above its class leads me to mytime who dropped back in trip should have to much toe for these around here.
therefore my third rated becomes my selection.
max.

thanks for that guest and max

sorry i couldnt reply earlier i've just got back in.
guest why no mention of moonshine bay in your excellent analysis?

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

I've just read 54 to the top of 59 and its loaded with great stuff. Many thanks to one and all. I think this will help me a lot.

Jimmy - I didn't intend to imply you were alcoholic.
I was only using alcoholism as an example of Parent/Adult/Child transaction analysis. It's a weird way of looking at what people get out of things. In general the thing you think they would most hate is the payoff for the behaviour.

All the best
hedgehog

Didn`t TTR show the best form of its career last time when 4th in race value class 261, grade B on a group 1 course ?
What`s more he was disputing the lead 2 out.

Today was surely a significant drop in both race class value and against weaker opposition.

The most probable winner in the race and for me (albeit a paper exercise ) a bet.

Experts please educate me on where I`ve gone wrong here.

Regards,

Determined

You've invited the experts to comment on the race. I hope you won't mind if I do, too.

Just focusing on Through the Rye and Mytimie, TTR had won four handicaps and last time out finished a very decent fourth in what was in effect a 0-145 handicap, beating some decent animals - eg Milligan, Tikram and Fait Le Jojo - in a race run in impressive time. However, mistakes at the last two, when under pressure, suggest to me that TTR was being asked a bit too much.

By contrast, Mytime has yet to prove it can win a handicap of any kind, though it has shown potential, especially last time out when coming a good second in what was effectively a 0-128 handicap.

Today's race was genuinely a 0-135 handicap, and thus a markedly higher class race than either had won, and higher class than that in which Mytimie had shown promise. For me, while TTR was no certainty, he seemed the most probable winner but, at the price, one to watch. In my view, Mytimie had virtually no chance of beating TTR.

In sum, I think you were spot on!

Thanks for your comments.

Turning to tomorrow I believe there is a horse running at Newbury with a similar profile to TTR, ie - although `well` beaten last time for genuine reasons in a very competitive race ( and big raise in opposition ) he`s against lesser opposition tomorrow. I haven`t gone as far as evaluating the whole race yet but I`m anticipating a probable winner in a race.

**** question; do I need the 1977 Raceform annual to study Little Nugget and Battlement or are their runnings in early 1978 sufficient ?

Please ignore my reference to Battlement as I have just remembered your post dated 27/01/02 which i`ll be reading with interest.

Regards,

Determined

I haven't studied either yet, but having looked at a number of the 1978 examples you'll certainly need 1977, and probably 1976.