barney
yes i do think or is important,but i have got a very open mind and have not got it sorted as you put it.i am always open to discuss why things maybe important or not important,but when i mentioned handicap ratings in the past on this thread nobody bothered,maybe i should not have posted it on this thread,as i have said many times i have not read vdw,but from what i can gather it is about form study,so just because the dutchman does not think it is important,does this mean it is not relevant in form study.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

I'm not brown nosing or picking sides but I've just read pages 61 to 63 and for a while I was seriously worried about this brilliant thread.

Please, lets help each other without the in-fighting. Maybe I'm being overly sensitive and this is just a bit of friction generated by the interaction of obviously able minds but I'd hate to see this thread degenerate. That way we all lose.

I'm not picking sides I just need all the help I can get and YOU make this the best thread on the net!

Thank god for Max!

Max - nice one, in more ways than one.

All the best
hedgehog

here is a question to all vdw followers.
if he was so good,or his methods were so good,and lets make no bones,he tried to get as much publicity as he could,posting letters to racing papers to be published.
why has perhaps 1% of the racing public ever heard of him.
think about it,a good thing would spread like wildfire?????

Barney
Your email address is not listed.
Mine is wrong ,i`ve tried to change
it but it doesn`t seem to work.
My email address is david.maggs1@btinternet.com
I`d be glad to hear from you.


regards


Maggsy

crystal gift
i put this up because it was the result of my findings after vdw interpretation.i dont pretend to understand the ins and outs of his teachings but hey its not that hard.
the selection did pass my filter because no matter whether it was a vdw selection or not it would not have carried my money without it passing.
max.

hi greg

maybe i was too flipant but i was only trying to get a point across, OR and SF do have a place as a guide to possible selections but VDW,through his interpretation of the form book,was trying to tell punters to deal with facts concerning the race in hand and not be too bothered with ratings and opinion's.

anyone who has studied anything in life will tell us that only the facts are important otherwise, there would be millions in jail because the police and the judicial system thought they were guilty, the moon was made of cheese and the earth is flat,the last two because people didn't know any better.

at the top leval all the facts need to be aligned and in unison but at different levals there is leeway and class will out.

i have tried to tell you and others but people do not want to hear, mostly everyone is certain that they are on the right track, as i am. so i understand.

The 3 races on Saturday were processed in the same way as many others before and whilst I understand that certain factors in the form are not blatantly obvious, they are there to be found. Perhaps it would be better all round if those who say they can't see these factors actually posted what they do see, rather than just demanding things on a plate from me. The only way to sort the methods out is by practice and learning from mistakes. It's no good people just posting "I can't see why" and expecting myself or others to fill in the gaps.

Greg - The answer to your question about VDW awareness is this. 99% of punters lose to vary degrees in the long run. Have you actually read the books or letters ?

I wouldn't put Peter Scudamore up as a good form judge. He was a great jockey, but like many jockeys and tv pundits,etc he can't look beyond the crowd with much success. Willie Carson is much the same, great jockey but not a good form judge. Just try following their fancies in tv races, but make sure you have a large tank.

Statajack - did you get the email address?

Greg

The answer to your question is simple. Contrary to Max's view on the back of Crystal Gift, to make a constant success of VDW's approach is actually rather difficult. It takes a lot more work, and much greater skill, than ringing up the Winning Line, etc., following some simplistic system, or picking out one's fancy from the Sun in the brief intervals between races in the betting shop.

Evidence of the difficulty is the conspicuous lack of success of those tipping services set up by individuals who, whatever criticisms might be levelled against them, had most certainly put in a lot of effort studying VDW - the late Jock Bingham for one, and more recently a service referred to in the early days of the alas now essentially defunct VDW Methodology Group, Colour Cards.

One characteristic of these services is that they are necessarily forced to post before the race in question, and their performance is therefore in the public arena for all to see. There is then disparity between results achieved and those intimated as expected, because we can most of us talk a good race retrospectively. Indeed, it would have been interesting to see if VDW himself could really have achieved an 80%+ strike rate, at all prices, had he posted his selections prior to racing.

This is certainly not to say that it isn't possible to keep well in the black, long term, by use of VDW's approach. I have, for five years now, and I don't doubt that several other contributors to this thread have, too, probably making very much more money, over much longer periods, than me. But it takes hard work and experience, and for most of us its not easy: hence its unsurprising that its a minority interest.

re:form judges

that mgrath knows a thing or two and francome isn't a mug(but doesnt give much away)

Guest.

I am more than a little surprised at your last post. On reading back through the thread the only 2 posts I can see asking about Mistletoe are mine and Maggsy's. Maggsy did put reasons why he didn't understand how it was a good bet. I asked how it was a bet at all given the ground and I still hold that view. VDW stated the ground should be taken into account. This horse had never raced on ground like this let alone shown form on it. The trainer stated he was worried by the going. I have been through this race 3 times and the only positive I can see for this horse is the fact it was expected to perform well in it's last 3 races. Failing twice, then winning the last of these on a very different track in a much lower class (by your guide lines). The race that has been held up as a class effort, in effect was poor. Not just my opinion, if you read the report in the Racing Post. I except there where negatives against the favourite, but there again the biggest negative was the going. As always it can never be proved, but I don't think we would ever have been looking at this as an example of vdw's work.

Regards

Mtoto - Mistletoes last run was a clear case of form and class illusion. The going is important, but there was no factual evidence to say she wouldn't cope given the opposition (or lack of it). In fact her trainer was quoted as saying "she has a bloody good chance".

The topweight was dismissed because of weight and lack of real form.

Pegwell Bay was evaluated by VDW and he stated had the ground been heavy he would not have wagered on it. This was because the horse failed at short odds on heavy the previous season. It is the same with speed figures. Just because a horse hasn't done something, it doesn't mean it can't. If we waited for every horse to drop in race value we wouldn't bet in the top races, which is exactly the area VDW said we should mainly look. Why do so many fail to grasp the significance of that?

I'm surprised that your surprised.

Guest.

This is a copy of the report after the race. I read on Friday night a report that said we don't want any more rain. She doesn't want it heavy, she gargled at Ludlow

Trainer Kim Bailey said of his winner: "I did think she had plenty to do at the weights and I was worried when the ground came up heavy because she had made a noise when beaten at Ludlow on her last run before she came to me [from Nicky Henderson] earlier this year. I told Robert [Thornton] to set out at the back and quietly creep closer, and he rode the perfect race on her. This wouldn't have been the strongest race in the world, but it was a very good prize to win

Regards

night,night

Mtoto

Just focusing on the issue of going (and there were, of course, other issues with Mistletoe), I think you've again illuminated one of the problems with VDW.

At various points, VDW states or implies that one should leave a horse alone if there is a doubt - eg his phrase in the well-known "Spells it all out" article "no element of a gamble should be allowed to creep in".

In my view, you are absolutely right in saying that there was doubt as to whether Mistletoe would manage on the going, doubt which you've shown even the trainer shared. So, following the ostensible advice of VDW, it was one to leave alone.

However, with VDW things are seldom straightforward. Examination of his examples shows that, time and again, he accepted doubt in his selections - strikingly, for example, with his selection of Rifle Brigade, first time out in a minor race and running over 1.5 miles when previously unraced over more than a mile. VDW thus accepted at least two doubts - was RB fit? was RB sure to stay the 1.5 miles?

VDW described Rifle Brigade as an "outstanding" bet. A number of possibilities arise, including:

1. VDW was very experienced/capable, and able to evaluate the pluses such as to make the doubts so marginal by comparison that the word “outstanding” was justified;

2. that while Rifle Brigade was a decent bet, VDW used the word "outstanding" carelessly - and even his greatest fans know that he was on occasion careless, eg giving the wrong consistency figures for Beacon Light and Prominent King in his first example, the latter error highly misleading and in fact leading to a false conclusion;

3. VDW was rationalising the winner after the result was known – a tendency I’ve noted in myself, and suspect is widespread. One could easily envisage a different scenario, where Rifle Brigade lost and was used by VDW as a cautionary tale - a likely winner but too much uncertainty for a bet! (And in this connection, its perhaps relevant to point out that VDW only very rarely stated quite unambiguously that he had backed one of the horses he named, though it is perhaps implied quite often. He certainly nowhere stated that he had backed Rifle Brigade.)

You and others will have views on which of the above three possibilities – or others – seems the most likely. But the fact is that none of us knows for sure, or is ever likely to. All are possibilities.

to mtoto and guest sorry if the race i mentioned caused any confusion but it did it for me,i wont do it again.

fulham you have come up with every reason why except the likely one.

romans why do come on saying you have little experience and when points are given you say to much!!

horses are thick as shite!!

they dont know the class of race in which they run
they dont know their official rating
they dont know their speed figure.

but when they fail after we have measured them with these parameters WE BLAME THE HORSE.

it is to ourselves we must look not the horse

at the risk of wrath and riddicule from the more knowledgeable vdw er's i thought i would share my interpretation of the 3.40 hereford.i have rated the field as i understand the concept of vdw's method.
in desending order.
1 flora princess
2 usk valley
3 bobsbest
4 granny rich
4 nicks choice*
5 chieftons crown
6 sergeants inn
7 assured movement
8 dellone
9 bold hunter
10prince tor
* joint rated
however after running through the runners with my filter the results slightly differed and the top 3 came out as follows-
1 flora princess
2 dellone
3 granny rich

as you can see the top rated both correspond and will carry my money.
it will be interesting to see how this turns out.

anybody got any thoughts before the off?
max.

no winner in a race here

the best 2 i come up with from the muddle is nicks choice and granny rich i wouldnt even dutch them with any confidence and assured movements could be anything under the right circumstances

but good luck max

Max

From a slightly different angle I'll probably lay nicks choice and granny rich subject to prices ie both under 3's . Agree with flora princess

Max,

I see we agree again on a race and this time in the same order - I'd just posted mine before coping over here.

Guest,

Tahnks for the offer, I'll avail myself in a little while as to why I had trouble with VRIN.

Oldtimer