I've looked at the 7:15 in the same manner as yesterday. Kaieteur has the highest class runs with 636 at a result of -7, this is bettered by Nysaean (183-4) and Lateen Sails (227+6). The latter are directly comparable so it comes out as a two horse race, Kaieteur and Lateen Sails. Under the influence of yesterday's race I make Lateen Sails the choice.

JIB
Chancellor needs soft ground, and even if he gets it, would be hard pressed to win this.
A no bet race for me, but some thoughts on the others.
Ikhtyaar looks the likeliest winner, given 2 runs to get fit, his lto run, in higher class and over the wrong distance, suggests he will be cherry-ripe for this.
Bandari has long suggested that 10f would be his best distance, no surprise to seem him win lto, but the way he was ridden was surprising. Still unexposed at 10f, a live danger.
Lateen Sails needs soft, and as he already has a gp3 on his CV, this looks like a pipe-opener.
Kaieteur has some high class form, but 1 win from last 11 runs tells its own story.
Comfy is the dark horse, obviously held in high regard, he was given a lot to do in the Eclipse, and performed well considering his inexperience. His nto drop in class suggests that his stable knew all was not well. A possible danger.
A definite no bet race.

Nottingham 3:40 Highest cash: Maghanim @ 159-16 Outperformed by: Ancient World @ 31+7 Simple split: Ancient World

Whoever wrote the VDW Derby article & whether he existed or not made a lot of sense.
There are very few in with a chance of winning & from when I read the article in question, have had the winner/placed winner, almost every year.I will post up my thoughts after analysing the race but even at this stage I cant see Percussionist out the frame.
Bio

BUCKEYE WONDER from the 2yo list goes tomorrow evening 855S.

Haydock 3:20, Tout Seul (259-33), Desert Destiny (211-14), Quito (143-12), Three Graces (104-6). At a guess: Desert Destiny.

W8/11

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Epsom 4:10, Necklace (443-24), Punctilious (151+6), Sundrop (306-2). Simple split: Punctilious.

Well - if you look at "What they did in the final furlong" - then both "Yohoomagoo" and Ouija Board" - both qualify on serios performances !!

-
watched both replays ! and -- Backed Both !!!

Is this a "Clever Guy " or What !!


tc

During the course of this experiment nobody posted conventional VDW "abilty" rating figures for comparison, I take it then that nobody uses them, that's fine. I'll look at the figures more closely on Monday as I'm busy this weekend but over the five races considered I can say that cash doesn't equate to class. If we are going to use this forum as a workshop for the exploration of outre considerations of form analysis that's fine but if we insist on maintaining it as VDW inspired I would like to challenge the basic idea that cash and class are related.

EP

Look at it this way
which performance would you expect to be the best
A horse that ran on strongly and finished 2nd in a £30,000 Hcp
Or a horse that ran on strongly and finished 2nd in a £3000 Handicap

Also if future engagements matter I.e a Handicapper holding future engagements in listed,group class whatever then why not a entry in a high value race as to the trainers current opinion of a horse

Epi
It would seem that even the most fervent disciples of ability ratings as a basis for selection are now having second thoughts, a view I have held, and been ridiculed for, for quite some time.
That doesn't mean, however, that we should throw the baby out with the bathwater, and it still holds true to this day that the better horses run in the most valuable races.
Not just in handicaps, either, even at the very top level, only the higher prize money will attract the very top horses at the top of their game.
If you doubt that, take a look at yesterday's Coronation Cup, and then figure out what price Warrsan would be for the Arc de Triomphe.

The Derby is between three in my book North Light,Rule of law & Percussionist with NL the most likely winner-many horses in this race will definately not stay, the Guineas horses-I will lay big time, American Post is a big danger though,three Gp1's and a pedigree to stay.Cheers
Bio

How could you be so wrong bio?, btn a short hd for the first 3 home, pah! .

From the first 5 in the betting forecast in the Epsom Derby today the winner was a horse that was jt least raced, with 3 runs only.Does anyone think this is of any significance in the grand scheme of things?.

Walter
Its circumstance IMO the winner in my view was very lucky as the 2nd was stone last coming round tattenham corner & made up anything from 12-15 lengths on the winner from then on.K.MCevoy was a terrible choice of jockey from the God squad.Like Alamshar & Kris Kin last year the winner will never beat the 2nd again.
I bet Rule of Law at 30/1 on Betfair last night along with a win on North light a fortnight ago & an E/W bet on Percussionist @ 25/1-pissed right off.
Bio

BIO
Nice tipping.
I reckon that the winner could have found another couple of lengths if pressed, although the 2nd did take the scenic route.
Brilliant ride from KF though, he knew exactly what he had to do, and executed it to perfection.

Castleton w1/2

St Francis Wood 420B is the next qualifier.