Bad Luck Boozer.

VDW dis show how to make a list using the 2/3 yr old method,in Systematic Betting.

My ill judged selection of Midnight Ballard came from this method,as did Peeress who won at Bath yesterday.It is interesting to note that Bachelor Duke the winner of the Irish 2000 GNS,was also on the list,but could not be backed,on this occassion.

The problem with this method in recent years,has been a notable decline in prices available about these horses.

However the actual method itself has stood the test of time,and will probably continue to do so.

There are many interpretations of the vdw methods,and while many acclaimed Gatwick last weekend,I had to make a book with Zonus.Could somebody please point out how Zonus could have been disregarded,in this race.

Pipedreamer
There were other considerations, but their lto runs should have pointed you in the right direction.
Zonus had been beaten in a 16k race, Gatwick had comfortably won a 43k race.
Although unlucky in running last week, I very much doubt if he would have beaten Gatwick anyway.
Gatwick was also unlucky in running, and for a horse running over a trip short of his best, got baulked at a vital stage of the race.
However, as his lto form showed, he had enough class in hand for neither of these to stop him gaining the day.
It goes without saying that both horses have shown that they are capable of winning more races, depending of course on how they are placed.

quote:

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Originally posted by john in brasil:
Bad Luck Boozer.

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looked like it was a 2 length winner coming into the straight
was counting our money
Unfortunate to get pipped in a photo by a most lightly raced 3yo as you can get
and on top of that somebody nicked Swishe's Pint


Not to worry

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Lee
The fact that you mentioned about 2m4f horses winning Grand Nationals ws based more or less solely on Gay trip.
In those days the fences were so much tougher, the race had to be run at a more sedate pace.Nowadays the grand National is just like any other Lo==long distance race bar the Chair & Beechers Brook.The modern National does not suit 2.4 milers,you need a horse which can truely stay at least 3m2f on a sharp track & usually on good+ ground.
Another thing that troubles me is trainers ambitions, if a smaller trainer has a horse rated say 80 and a 3yo h'capper is galloping alongsides it, whos to say it is any good-if the money is down obviously because of gallop performance many peeps will get stuck in, but an 80 rated horse is no great shakes.Im speaking from a pals personel experience here.A trainer has no reliable guide in better class races unless he has quality horses to work with unexposed animals on the gallops, hence the problems opposing the larger stables in H'caps.
Bio

Bio,

Yes, I agree - It was more the point about the Derby that I was trying to get across.

JIB,

Here's a few to get your teeth in to:

Castleton
Capped For Victory
Poise
Mountain meadow
Dakota Blackhills
Take a Bow
Latif
Cape Vincent
Maaloof
Notable Guest
Buckeye wonder
Maraakeb
St Francis Wood
Hills Spitfire
Peeress

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Lee,

More Lists from VDW

As promised - article from 1987 Ulimate Wheil of Fortune.


THE FIRST FURLONG
• 3-Y-O LIST

ALTHOUGH temperament is the first requisite of successful punting TIME runs a
close second and yet the majority fail to heed either.

You would not expect to draw your monthly pay cheque for a five minute appearance
each day so why imagine profit from punting can be achieved by a quick look at the
morning paper?

A great deal of time and effort goes into any real return and the whole is dependent
upon how the project is put together. If you know where you want to arrive it should
make sense to plan the route but many just dash off in all directions and then wonder
why they get lost.

Selecting one ideal to act as your route should push the odds more in your favour,
providing it is well thought out and you stick at it refusing to get caught up with
expensive excursions.

There are many good ideas to choose from and a popular one is to make a list of
horses to follow. Compiling this list can be done by various methods and a lot of
thought should go into deciding which has the most appeal, but once made stick with it.

British racing is heavily slanted towards middle-distance events and you will find
most of the more sought after prizes for three-year-olds and upwards in the 8fto 12f
range.

Three-year-olds make for an interesting group having the classics and many other
good handicap and non-handicap races confined to the age group. Although there is
always the problem of previously unraced horses it does not pose the same headaches
as do two-year-olds.

To make the most of this group it is highly beneficial to spend considerable time in the study of two-year-olds and there are some points to note. If opting to base a list on
the evaluation of time do be careful of exceptionally fast five furlong two-year-olds as
they have a bad reputation for training on into anything, but sprinters.

If sprinters you want then that's fine, but should you wish to court the glamour of the
middle distances, care must be observed.

For an initial list based on time, RHB readers may care to use Split Seconds' Speed
Figures, in association with other criteria, which produces about a dozen horses a year
with outstanding potential. Check the Speed Figures of the previous season's two-year-
olds and list only those which recorded a rating of 70 or more over a minimum distance
of seven furlongs at one of the tracks below:

- Ascot, Doncaster, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown, York.
-
For those interested I list those which qualify for 1987:

AJDAL.............. 72 7f Newmarket

BROTHER PATRICK ... 74 8f Sandown

CLASSIC TALE ...... 71 7f Ascot

DEPUTY GOVERNOR ... 76 7f Newbury

IMPERIAL FRONTIER . 70 7f Newmarket

MAMOUNA........... 71 7f Newbury

MILLIGRAM..........73 7f Newbury

NOBLE MINSTREL ... 72 7f Newmarket

PERCY'S LASS ..... 71 7f Ascot

REFERENCE POINT .. 71 8f Sandown

ROUNDLET.......... 74 7f Newbury

SHINING WATER .... 71 7f Sandown

TOLUCALAKE........ 70 8f Doncaster

Amongst this short list there is great potential for taking a share of the classics and
^many of the more prestigious prizes during 1987.

Should you want to start with a larger list instead of waiting to add others from
running you may care to include . . . ARABIAN SHEIK, DON'T FORGET ME,
GREAT ASPECT, MOUNTAIN MEMORY, NAHEEZ, NEW ATTITUDE, ORNE,
PORT HELENE, SHADY HEIGHTS, SIZZLING MELODY, TARTUFFE, ZAJAL.

Compiling or being given a list does not absolve you from further responsibility, the
decision to bet must be made only after careful evaluation of the situation in which one
of the horses is placed.

There are drawbacks to lists and one is the ever-increasing number of better-class
trained horses going overseas to capture big prizes. This aspect should be watched as
developments in racing make it probable that during the coming years, unless steps are
taken to reverse the trend, this will become more of a problem.

31




tc

JIB,

I use Split Second, and for this particular list set the minimum rating achieved at 95, I think!

Mtoto,

Were you able to split Corridor Creeper/Racoon?

I see Boogie Street Annihilated the older horses!

Lee - was that list found using a search facility on raceform ??

Lee,

I had Raccoon a fair bit in front of Corridor Creeper on my ratings, so I was quite happy that he was the most likely winner. Have to say if CC had been the top rated there is no way he would have been a bet. I called him gutless on another forum, that may have been a bit harsh. I have seen him many times get into a position to win, he never seems to go through with it. Did I back R? No, I wasn't happy with the price, I thought it was very tight for a race like this. Only myself to blame he may have been a better price very early. If he was I missed it, looking at Domirati at Kempton. Think it maybe called greed, I thought he had much the same chance as R but was 6 times the price and was proven on the course. This is the main reason I will NEVER get the 80% strike rate. I still think of strike rate as an ego thing, it's the profit I want.

Be Lucky

The idea that prize money demonstrates race class still seems fairly daft to me but I decided to try looking at the 2:20 at Sandown from this angle. Adding the prize money from the last three runs Papineau comes out on top with 430K, over those same three runs it's total result was -12 lengths. Alcazar at -6 and Risk Seeker at +2 are the only runners with better results in lower class. Alcazar has never won a race of this class and is nine years old, so I'll throw that out, Papineau has never won a race at the distance, so I would say Risk Seeker is indicated by the cash/class approach.

mtoto, been trying to contact you do you have new email... todays racing..the bonus king..4.00 chepstow,

TCat,

Partly.

Epi,

I think Risk Seeker has a good chance if he goes on the ground. There is a ? over his last time out form thought given the conditions, which turned out to be a true test.

Lee: Thanks. If you've analysed the race starting with conventional VDW ratings would you mind posting the names of other indicated runners in the 2:20?

Epi,

The 1st problem with this race is that the main aim for Mr D is/was the Ascot Gold Cup, and therefore there must be a question of whether he would be at his absolute peak. As stated above Risk Seeker put in a great effort last time out, however, it was a true test of stamina, unlike today’s race was ever going to be on the going, and whilst I was content that he would probably go on the ground (via breeding), I had to question the true strength of form, and would he be able to keep up with the pace from the distance.

Papineau’s breeding suggested he would get the trip is/was lightly raced and won a race last time out that was probably pattern class, as opposed to what the race title stated.

For me there was nothing else likely to be in contention, but at the same time nothing worthy of support, at the prices.

Okay, thanks. It's interesting that the simple cash based system I used did find the winner in it's reduction of the field so I'll carry on with this experiment for a few days. If anyone uses the normal VDW ratings it would be nice if they were posted so that we can see how they compare.

Epi
It isn't a total coincidence, the better horses usually run in better races, if only to get them fit.
Haven't checked the figures of the other runners, but if you look at Master Robbie yesterday, and Blue Spinnaker today, I'm sure you'll find they're pretty near the top of the pile your way.
It's no coincidence either, that these are the 3 highest class races over the 2 days.
Good hunting!