St Francis Wood wEvs.

JIB,
st francis wood dropped to a lower than grade 1 track to collect,and finished in front of Ouija board last season.Last time out,probably not off,in view of strong market support for the winner,and if you read post race comments,seem to back that up.

This particular method,if used correctly,could make ones annual income.

Pipedreamer

Do you notice this sort of thing often?

Good luck,Rab

Hi Rab,
Good to see you taking an interest in this thread, there is much in VDW to improve the discerning punter's approach once you take it seriously. Even JIB is gradually becoming a convert.
A word of caution, if I may.
VDW is essentially a lesson in the training and placing of racehorses, and it is a concept that needs understanding well before real progress can be expected. I,myself, am still learning, but do understand enough to offer some guidance.
If you look at St Francis Wood's form, you will see that much of what Pipedreamer says would also have applied to his last race, when he wouldn't have brought home the bacon. However, it would seem that he caught a real tartar in that race, unlike yesterday's.
It isn't just a question of how they are placed, it is also a study of the opposition they are likely to meet, and how that opposition has also been placed. In my experience, it is unwise to bet unless the other horses can safely be dismissed.
As an example, take a look at today's best race the 8.15 at Ponte.
Chorist is the clear class horse, but it is her 1st run of the season, and over a distance apparently short of her best.
However, her trainer will no doubt have studied the opposition, and decided that there is nothing in her league, so she should prevail.
A nice 20k for not too much work,and a couple of handy listed placings for the also-rans.
Sounds almost like VDW!

Johnd

I think JIB has always known far more about VDW than he lets on and was able to see so many flawed methods in it,

I had a look at the 8.15 Pont,
1st 2 in betting both owned by Chev Park so which 1 do you think has the most to gain?
Im thinking 1st run= no bet,Odds on = No bet,Dist not Ideal= No bet,
Fallon on Chorist should ensure a good price on Ice palace so im going to try and fill my boots

Rab/Jib

Chorist has nothing to lose, already a gp3 winner, she would earn no penalty for better races in future.
The 2nd fav has yet to be listed placed, and black type would enhance her paddock value.
If there is a danger, in my view it would be Quiet Storm, given a chance by her trainer for the first time this season, and a better each way bet at the prices, too.
Be interesting to watch.

Rab,
To be honest I prefer them to drop in track grade.It is important to weigh up all scenarios as at the end of the day,it is your hard earned that you are speculating with.Last time I thought St.Francis Wood would be a wager,but in the context of that race,the inspired money for the winner was enough to prevent a wager.Don't get me wrong,this does not happen every time there is money for an opponent but in terms of Swainson look at his profile,a group 2 entry,etc,and also the forecast 2nd fav,was withdrawn,Feaat,WHY?.Feaat subsequently wins during the week.It also has a group 2 entry,all this pointed to St.F.W. being a much stronger selection yesterday.Why was Feaat withdrawn from Swainsons race,answer that and you should be able to see a picture emerge.

Chorist,has won 1st time out,before,Haggas is a Yorkshire man,and likes to win up there.Fallon is on fire,best horse in the race,but she is a filly,distance probably a bit sharp,but CLASS should overcome that,but is today the real target or a pipeopener for a bigger prize,will probably win,but not one I would take today,vdw said,you will miss some winners along the way,but temperament is paramount.

Johnd / Pipedreamer

Chorist won well enough and the race was run very much as you's said,Should win next time out,Will be watching for it,
As for betting the price was to short for me

Theres a nice looking 2yo dropping steeply in course grade tomorrow. Beautiful Mover 400R came 2nd (shd) at Newmarket. The comment says she wasnt given a hard time. Nice sire stats too.

jib , don't know if you noticed but it's also john hills' only runner at the meeting and travels 256 miles for this race.

Rab
The result is academic, the initial point I tried to make isn't.
The euphoria over JIB's 3 winners on the trot may have led some to believe that selections were automatic, hopefully tonight's race will have demonstrated that there is more to VDW than that.

Boozer: The VDW concept of class is claimed to be a useful element in reducing the field to the few likely winners, the question of how a horse finishes doesn't come up at that point, only when examining the form of those thrown up by the initial playing with numbers. In the Derby American Post had demonstrated better performance in higher class than the winner had according to VDW basics, if one is to follow the advice that all things should "line up" and no element of a gamble be allowed to intrude, it would have been impossible to select the winner on account of the class of American Post's form.

EP

Yes I get your drift
I was looking at it more from a Roushayd point
Which is different

Hi Epi,

It is virtually impossible to use prize money as a gauge to class with younger horses, particularly for races such as the Derby, where they are lightly raced and may have picked up some foreign prizes along the way. As I posted before it is imperative that the horse/trainer has given an indication that the horse will get the mile and a half trip in top class, and this normally means winning at 10f or above, in a good class trial. American Post, whilst winning some decent class races, has only shown form at a mile, and was extremely fortunate to land the race at Longchamp last time. Horses that give a good account in races such as the 2000 Guinneas very rarely make a better show in the Derby. The ability to get the trip in top class is the most important feature of this race.

Epi

Lee makes some solid points and if I may add a few remarks I think it significant that VDW's 3yo examples tended, in the main, to concentrate on using Speed Figures to judge ability rather than the race value based Ability rating. He certainly acknowledged the point that the Ability rating was not so reliable with lightly raced animals.

There does seem to be a tendency to treat the Ability rating as the main pointer towards selections when I don't think this was intended to be the case. On many occasions it can be a very useful pointer, but no more than that.

Rob

quote:

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Originally posted by Lee:
Hi Epi,

Horses that give a good account in races such as the 2000 Guinneas very rarely make a better show in the Derby.

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Isn't that how the original Mr William Hill made his fortune by laying such horses? Still what did he know, he was only a bookie.

It may be worth pointing out that 2 Derby winners in the last 10 years had never run over more than 1m ( Lammtarra, Shaamit), and that the Guineas has often been used as a perfectly acceptable route to success in the Derby. (From memory, Nijinsky, Royal Palace, Sir Ivor, The Minstrel, Nashwan).
Also, had Hawk Wing not met an exceptional horse, he would have been an easy winner 2 years ago.
The Derby is recognised as the biggest prize in British racing, so it is small wonder that any horse with half a chance should be given the opportunity.
However, opportunity is not the same as intent,and intent was a very powerful part of VDW's armoury.

I like the idea of lists as well, the criteria required for one list against another may take on many different aspects.
One of the first things to look for though is if a trainer declines a declaration with a horse who is well rated in any race.
The ratings themselves are not important in themselves but bear in mind that trainers must have something to go on. Whether it be an ability rating , a speed rating, or any form rating that one could use.